Pacers vs. Bucks: Opportunity, experience, disruptors face Pacers
The Pacers playoff scenario sets up well with Game 1 in Milwaukee on Sunday. Can they take advantage?
The goals for a successful season for the young Pacers to begin the season seemed lofty at the time. Make the playoffs and at least win a game or two, giving Tyrese Haliburton and his other young teammates a taste of the postseason to continue fueling their hunger for more.
Then they won a bunch of big games early in the season, made their way to the In-Season Tournament with Haliburton showing he may be ready for more NOW. The Pacers pushed expectations higher with a win-now move to add Pascal Siakam for the last half of the season. A veteran player with playoff experience (and a ring) to fill a desperate need as a big wing in the lineup.
Suddenly, the Pacers were built better to PLAY in the playoffs as opposed to just make the playoffs. Once in the NBA’s postseason tournament, anything can happen. This is why Rick Carlisle emerged from the last game of the season, which clinched the playoff spot, sounding surly when the media tried to elicit praise for his team earning the No. 6 spot. He wants more and wants his team to want more and the opportunity is there considering the Pacers draw and the state of other teams in the East.
The Pacers are favored to beat the Bucks in their first round series. The opportunity is there. But they also face an experienced Bucks team regardless of the availability of Giannis Antetokounmpo. In addition, the veteran Bucks have some disruptors who will make their presence known if just playing straight up basketball isn’t working.
The PhD level playoff education is about to begin for those Pacers who don’t have much, if any playoff experience. Can they pass the class?
Opportunity
There have been several reports leading up to Game 1 that a calf strain will keep Antetokounmpo out for at least the start of the series. On Saturday, the Bucks listed the Greek Freak as doubtful on the injury report. So, yeah, until he doesn’t go out for the tip I’ll assume he could still rise up for Game 1. Although, a strained calf is a tough one to fully recover from in a hurry.
But without Giannis, the Pacers are slight favorites to win. A major opportunity to secure home court advantage, if the Pacers can take at least one in Milwaukee. Preferably, they can win any game without Giannis and eventually take the series.
Were the Pacers to win the series, the next round would have them playing the Knicks or Sixers, two teams also battling injury concerns. The Knicks looked great in Game 1 with Mitchell Robinson and OG Anunoby putting them at full strength even without Julius Randle. But Robinson and OG are no sure thing to make it through the playoffs unscathed which would change things drastically for the Knicks.
Likewise, the Sixers are battling with a dinged up Joel Embiid. It looked like Embiid may be done after a fall in Game 1. At best, the big man’s injury status seems to be trip-to-trip up the floor while playing. If he can muster four winning efforts against NYK, there’s no promise he would be good to go for the next round.
The Pacers are healthy, aside from Bennedict Mathurin who missed the final month and a half of the season. Mathurin had a couple of his best games, well, ever in wins over the Bucks early in the season. He was there for all the smoke that emerged with the petty, competitive battle between the two teams. However, the Pacers have had plenty of time to adjust to not having Mathurin in the rotation, as TJ McConnell and Obi Toppin have emerged with quality production on the reserve unit.
So, the opportunity is there for the Pacers now. They could be a much better team next year, with a higher seed, but bad injury luck or other circumstances could make the playoffs more challenging. Pascal Siakam knows all about circumstances falling in your favor and suddenly, you’ve earned a championship ring. Embrace the opportunity.
Experience and Disruptors
With this great opportunity facing the Pacers, it is impossible not to be wary of the light experience and immaturity this team has shown before, rearing its ugly head. Losses during the season to the Hornets, Wizards, Blazers (TWICE) to name a few ugly ones, will do that to anyone following this team.
Certainly, the intense focus of the playoffs will have the Pacers avoiding any sort of exhale if they see Giannis in street clothes. If not, the Bucks have more than enough talent and experience to embarrass the Pacers without their big star. Damian Lillard doesn’t need to play great in every game, but if he does in a couple and the Pacers can’t match him, then the Blue and Gold will be in trouble.
Without Giannis, I’d expect the Bucks to try to slow the pace even though they finished the season in the top ten in pace. The Pacers want, check, that, NEED to run and work to beat the Bucks back for easy buckets as they did earlier in the season. But things are not the same as they were earlier in the year.
Patrick Beverly and Jae Crowder were not involved in those early games. When you combine those two with Bobby Portis, the Bucks have three guys I’d refer to as disruptors. They’re active, they’re physical and they love to talk.
Pat Bev can sacrifice his game to needle Tyrese at all times, trying to provoke reactions and take the Pacers out of their game plan. Same with Crowder, who will be a decent fill in for Giannis, at least defensively against Siakam. And of course, Portis will stick his nose into any extra activity on the court to get under the skin of anyone willing to engage.
Haliburton seems to handle these situations quite well, usually with a big smile. Jalen Smith, Aaron Nesmith are two Pacers who won’t back down but will need to be smart to avoid unnecessary reactions and/or techs.
The way these games are refereed, will also be critical. In the first round games on Saturday, it seemed like the refs let the players play, much as they did after the All-Star break in the regular season. The Pacers and postseason officiating has always been an issue, but as long as the calls, whether tight or not so much, are consistent at both ends, then the Pacers should be fine if they can avoid the BS the Bucks trio of disruptors tries to throw at them.
Game Details
Where: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
When: Sunday, Apr. 21, 2024, 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports
Radio: 93.5/107.5 The Fan
Odds: Pacers -1
Projected Starters
Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam, Myles Turner
Bucks: Damian Lillard, Patrick Beverly, Khris Middleton, Jae Crowder, Brook Lopez
Injuries
Pacers: Bennedict Mathurin (shoulder) - out
Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) - doubtful