A few citizens have asked the question - has there ever been an NBA team with as many roster changes from one season to the next as it appears will happen with the Clippers this season?  Well, the short answer is yes, and probably there have been a lot.

With the return of Paul Davis, the Clippers, barring further changes, which is of course a distinct possibility given what has transpired so far, will begin the 2008-2009 season with five returning players on a 15 man roster:  Chris Kaman, Cat Mobley, Tim Thomas, Al Thornton and Davis.  That's a massive changeover, to be certain.

However, armed with nothing more than my vast reserve of useless NBA knowledge (and basketball-reference.com, of course), I started looking at teams that were likely candidates for similar or greater roster turnover.  (Someone smarter than me, with access to the raw data, could no doubt query a database and come up with all instance of 5 or fewer returning in consecutive seasons - if you are that person, have fun.  I am not that person.  But I'm pretty sure at this point that there would be a lot of examples.)

I started with the most obvious possibility, the 98-99 Chicago Bulls.  After winning their sixth title in eight seasons the previous season, Bulls management famously blew up the roster, parting ways from Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Coach Phil Jackson and seemingly everybody else.  Even so, with all of that turnover from the top down, the Bulls still had seven returning players on the 98-99 roster: Toni Kukoc, Ron Harper, Bill Wennington, Randy Brown, Dickey Simpkins, Rusty LaRue and Keith Booth.  So the Clippers win that battle.

Then I realized, it wouldn't be the high-profile teams with the most turnover.  It would be the dreadfully bad teams.  The teams with absolutely no reason to keep anybody on their roster.  So my next stop was the worst team of the last 20 years - probably the worst team of all time - the 97-98 Denver Nuggets.  I had the 'honor' of watching this team live once, and they were bad.  Really, really bad.  Monumentally bad.  Historically bad.  They didn't manage to break the all-time record for fewest wins of 9 held by the 72-73 Sixers, but not because they weren't really, really bad.  In 72-73 there were only 17 NBA teams, no other team won fewer than 22 games, and only 3 failed to win at least 30 games.  In 97-98, with 29 teams in the league, fully five teams other than the Nuggets won 20 games or fewer.  It was quite the suck-fest.  So although the Nuggets were clearly the worst of the worst, as the season ground towards the finish, the 5-58 Nuggets managed to win 6 of their final 19 games against almost equally dismal competition to avoid their rightful place in the record books.

At any rate, I wondered how much turnover there was on such an awful team.  Sure enough, from the 96-97 Nuggets team to the 97-98 team, there are only four names in common - LaPhonso Ellis, Bryant Stith, Anthony Goldwire and George Zidek (there's a name for Citizen Zhiv).  Consider also that Goldwire and Zidek were each acquired in a February 97 trade - so Ellis and Stith were the only two holdovers on the team from opening day 1996 to opening day 1997.  Wow.  And for good measure, the 98-99 Nuggets team only had five players from the prior team - Stith, Danny Fortson, Eric Williams, Corey Alexander and Eric Washington.  In two seasons, Bryant Stith was the only player who remained.

So I'm guessing that massive turnover of the 4 to 5 returning players variety is not all that uncommon, particularly in really bad teams.  We just tend to forget about it because the teams themselves are forgettable.

Except that Nuggets team.  They were unforgettably bad.

Returning from two weeks away, I'm a little overwhelmed by the task at hand.  To be sure, the activity of this past fortnight pales in comparison to the prior 5 or 6 weeks.  But it's not insignificant.  Furthermore, the sands were shifting so thoroughly already that I feel like I'm trying to provide an update to a situation that was completely unstable.  How have things changed since I left?  It depends on your definition of how things looked at the time.

Invariably, when I don't have a clear angle on a post, all I can do is dive in and start writing.  So here goes:

Jason Williams - I guess I assumed that Jason Williams would warrant more than the veteran's minimum, so in that sense it seems like a good signing.  I'm no fan of Hart, so if we're going to have a Jason as a backup point guard, this is certainly my preference.  Still, how many guys from the 1998 draft does one team need to sign in a single off season?  Along with Brain Skinner and Ricky Davis, this now makes three 1998 first rounders the Clippers have signed a decade later.  It's probably not too late to call Michael Olowokandi.

Still, Williams can play some ball.  It's actually pretty hard to imagine a more exciting player signing for the min.  His off-the-elbow pass is probably the most amazing pass I've ever seen.  (By the way, I seem to recall that he's made that pass in a real game at least once, but the only video I can find is from the 2000 Rookie game - a game I happened to attend.)  But for all his street-ball chops, he certainly played his best ball in Memphis when he settled down and just ran the team.  In fact, until last season when he struggled playing for the hapless Heat, he put up six consecutive seasons with a PER of 15 or better.  Not earth-shattering, but not bad. 

Steve Novak - As it happens, I like Steve Novak - a lot.  I was trying to come up with trades for him as far back as December 2006 (in the same post in which I imagined trading for Allen Iverson, believe it or not.)  The guy can really shoot the ball.  I remember watching him as a freshman (I think) on Wade's Marquette team and thinking that he could play.  He's never had much of a chance in Houston, but he's proven that he has NBA range in the few opportunities he's gotten.  He was 34 for 71 shooting the three in very limited minutes last season.  Truthfully, if Tim Thomas' role is supposed to be the 6'10" guy who can shoot threes, Novak does that for a lot less money. 

Paul Davis - This one is surprising, if only because it seemed for a while there that the Clippers were bound and determined to distance themselves from anything and everything related to the 07-08 season.  Of all the players that might have returned (Josh Powell, Quinton Ross, Shaun Livingston, Nick Fazekas, Marcus Williams) Paul Davis would in many ways seem to be the least likely.  Yes, the Clippers were very high on his prospects this time last year - much higher, for instance, than they were on Josh Powell.  Yes, he had finally starting playing well when he got injured.  But let's face it - he has a couple of decent NBA games and a ruptured ACL on his resume and not much else. 

Which leads me to the real question.  Roster math is a zero-sum game.  There are only 15 spots, maximum.  So giving a spot to Davis (or trading a second round pick for Novak) means NOT giving a spot to Nick Fazekas.  That's a little tough to figure.  Obviously, none of these guys (Davis, Novak, Fazekas) has proven much at the NBA level so far.  Novak has played 455 NBA minutes, Davis 374 and Fazekas 269.  So, we can rave about Fazekas' stellar PER, but the sample size is so small that I'm willing to admit that maybe MDsr sees something that overrides that data.  (Of course Novak's PER of 17.3 last year is none-too-shabby.)  But when a guy gets into a game and produces results, you kind of want to see him get into more games and for more minutes, and that's why it hurts to say goodbye to Fazekas.  Coincidentally, all three of these guys were all taken in about the same spot in the draft - Novak 32nd in 2006, Davis 34th in 2006, Fazekas 34th in 2007.  For what it's worth.

Likewise in the backcourt, the LA Times reported when the Clippers signed Williams that it probably meant an end to Shaun Livingston's career with the team.  Apparently the Clippers offered him a one year minimum deal, which he turned down.  Of course, it remains to be seen if any other NBA team (teams without the same emotional and financial investment in Livingston) will offer even that much to a player who is not yet cleared to play.  One wonders if Livingston might become a possibility again as the season gets closer and no other offers are forthcoming.  A roster spot can easily be made available for him by cutting Mike Taylor.  So I'm crossing my fingers that my Livingston jersey will not have to follow the Wilcox and Brand versions into the dumpster.  But it's a long shot at this point.  (And by the way, what's with the Clippers' coverage in the Times from the likes of Chris Hine and Lonnie White?  Jonathan Abrams hasn't written a word about the team in almost 3 weeks.  Seems suspicious.) 

I'm not ready for a complete, 'big picture' post quite yet.  It's all still coalescing in my head.  Guys like Ricky Davis and Jason Williams are not exactly the classic 'locker room' types.  But maybe Davis and Williams and Tim Thomas can form some sort of 'cancer survivors' group and overcome their somewhat checkered pasts.  Or is it more likely that they'll drag one another down?  We'll see.  The contracts are all cheap and short - the Clippers cap situation looks good for next summer, and great for 2010, as of right now.  But it's certainly not looking like a youth movement.  Baron Davis (29), Ricky Davis (28), Jason Hart (30), Jason Williams (32), Brian Skinner (32) and Marcus Camby (34) are joining Cat Mobley (32) and Tim Thomas (31).  Yuck.  It's a good thing none of those guys other than Baron are signed for more than two seasons, because some of them may not last that long.

Here's the press release:

CLIPPERS SIGN FREE AGENT CENTER PAUL DAVIS

Team Adds A Third "Davis" To Bring Roster to 15

The Los Angeles Clippers today signed free agent center Paul Davis, according to Vice President of Basketball Operations Elgin Baylor.  Per team policy, terms of the deal were not announced.

Paul Davis joins Baron Davis and Ricky Davis on the Clippers’ roster to bring the "Davis" count to an NBA tying three.  Many teams’ rosters have had as many as three players with the same surname throughout league history, but none with four.  The most recent example?  The ’05-’06 Toronto Raptors, with Aaron, Alvin and Eric Williams. 

Paul Davis was drafted by the Clippers with the 34^th overall selection in the second round of the 2006 NBA Draft and appeared in a total of 53 games for Los Angeles over the last two seasons. The Clippers had previously renounced his rights on July 16.

Paul Davis, 24, averaged 2.5 points, 2.1 rebounds and 0.5 assists in 8.8 minutes in 22 games last season before having his season cut short by a torn anterior cruciate ligament and torn lateral meniscus suffered in his right knee on Dec. 21, 2007.

A former stand-out at Michigan State University, the 6-foot-11 center has career averages of 2.0 points and 1.7 rebounds in 7.1 minutes.

The Clippers new-look roster now stands at 15 players as Los Angeles has revamped its roster by adding a total of 10 new faces for the 2008-09 season.

So the roster is at 15, but bear in mind that Taylor and Jordan both have 'make good' contracts that only pay out if they make the team.  There are no official details yet on Davis' deal, but I assume it's guaranteed, and I'm told that it is for one season, with a team option for a second season.

I had a great time in Costa Rica, and I'm back.  Thanks to the guys for stepping up in my absence, especially Citizen Mikey P for doing an outstanding job on the Olympic basketball pool play.  As you might expect, I'll have plenty to say about that soon enough.  For now, suffice it to say that Redeem Team has looked great, but don't bet the farm on them - not yet.  Pool play doesn't matter.  Now it gets serious, and one bad game and you're out.

I'm digging out from my absence on a couple of fronts, but I'll be here soon with a big post about Jason Williams (dubious), Steve Novak (I actually always liked him), Shaun Livingston (there goes my last Clippers jersey), Nick Fazekas (confusing), the schedule, etc. very soon.

My bags are packed, but the plane doesn't leave for another four hours.  The ClipperWife is grabbing a nap, and I figure I have 45 minutes or so to squeeze out one more post.

Long time readers of the blog (and the one or two of you who were there for the old blog) know that Team USA is a bit of a pet subject of mine.  If I had the time, I'd link to lots of things I've said before, but I'm in a pretty big rush.  You can just do the search.  Or I guess this one and this one should summarize what I was thinking in 2007 and 2006.

So, this rant isn't going to be particularly well-researched - more off the top of my head.  But the Olympics start next week, and I'm going to miss most of the pool play games while I'm in Costa Rica; so I thought I should get on the record before it's all over.

I was reading in the August 4 issue of Newsweek the other day about the basketball team (sorry, I couldn't find an online link).  It's always interesting reading about sports in a non-sports focused publication.  They're writing for a different audience, and they have to take a different approach.  I won't say they have to dumb it down, but they can't skip steps like a sports publication would.

At any rate, there was one very interesting thing (at least to me) in that article. 

Since [2002], despite a pledge to restore American supremacy at its own game, Team USA has added only a pair of bronze medals - at the 2004 Olympics and at the 2006 worlds.  So America's basketball brain trust regrouped and came up with a new plan:(1) apply pressure to elite NBA superstars to commit; (2) require all of them to play in early qualifying rounds so that a cohesive team shows up in Beijing, rather than a collection of All-Stars, and (3) include role players, notable defenders and long range shooters, to provide more balance.

Interesting.  And pretty much completely incorrect. 

The re-grouping (making Colangelo the head of USA Basketball, appointing the coaching staff of Coach K, D'Antoni and McMillan, etc.) came BEFORE 2006, not after.  And getting superstars to commit was NEVER really part of the stated plan - they wanted commitments, but not necessarily from the elite players.  In fact, in the above 'plan', number (1) would seem to be incompatible with numbers (2) and (3) since elite NBA superstars would in fact make up a collection of all stars and would presumably not include role players.

Of the three points above, only number (3) was actually a stated goal of USA Basketball, and of course that's the one that has been almost completely ignored (of the players in China right now, only Tayshaun Prince could be referred to as a 'role player' by any reasonable person).  But I don't think this is just sloppy reportage by a non-basketball reporter.  I think it's revisionist history, and I suspect we'll be in for a lot of it.  Win the Gold medal, and whatever you did must have worked.

What's interesting about Colangelo and company's attempts to 'fix' USA Basketball is that they have done almost NONE of the things they said they would do.  But of course, if they win the Gold Medal, they'll take all of the credit for fixing it nonetheless.  At the end of the day, simply getting Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd onto the court is what appears to be making a difference for this team.  And presumably any of Colangelo's predecessors would have tried to do that as well.

In fact, other than putting together a pretty good group of All Stars, which after all has been the approach since 1992 and was supposedly the approach that this new brain trust was going to avoid, one has to really worry about how this team is constructed.  Wasn't one of the big problems with the 2002 team in Indianapolis that it was made up of so many similar players?  Just a bunch of athletic wings?  Well, guess what?  Fully half of the 12 man roster in Beijing falls into that category. 

I said it last summer, and I still think it's true.  This team is built to beat opponents by 40 - or to lose by 4.  A team with more size and a low post presence would not win by as wide a margin, and would be less likely to lose at all.  Remember that when a Gold Medal is all that counts, Pool Play is meaningless.  When the single elimination rounds start with the quarter finals, that's when it gets interesting.  One loss and you're out.  What happens when this version of Team USA runs into an opponent that handles their pressure?  Take away the easy baskets that come from that pressure defense, and the team is suddenly going to take a lot of jump shots.  So three things have to happen for Team USA to lose.  The opponent has to handle the pressure.  The opponent has to make shots.  Team USA has to miss shots.  None of those seem extremely unlikely.  Sure, Team USA will probably win the Gold Medal, because they have the most talent.  But I don't think this team has been challenged since it's been together.  What happens when they get challenged?

Carmelo Anthony (a mediocre rebounder for a SMALL forward in his NBA career) is the team's power forward.  Dwight Howard is the only legitimate center.  What if Howard gets hurt?  What if he gets into foul trouble at the hands of the admittedly capricious international refs?  Actually, Team USA is lucky that Germany and China do not appear to be major medal threats, because both Kaman and Yao would have a field day against Bosh or Boozer.  But Greece has size AND a complete team. 

It's pretty hard to figure how anybody watched the Greece game in 2006 and said, "You know what our problem was?  Too much size."  Time and again the Greek pick-and-roll drew the only US player with any size (be it Brand or Howard, but they were never on the court at the same time) away from the basket, while a Greek big rolled down the lane being defended by a point guard, with the likes of Carmelo as the only help defender.  So, yes, by all means, go smaller. 

The Newsweek article goes on to point out something interesting about the goal of including role players on the team.  Eight of the twelve players on the squad led their NBA team in scoring.  Digging a little deeper, you'll notice that 3 of the other 4 are point guards - not a position that typically leads a team in scoring, but it's hard to argue that Jason Kidd, Chris Paul and Deron Williams are any thing other than top tier NBA stars.  That leaves the aforementioned Prince as the only 'role player' on the team.  Let's hope there aren't too many roles.

Of course, nothing necessarily precludes players who are superstars in their NBA lives from becoming role players on this team.  And of course USA Basketball would tell you that's exactly what's happening.  But it's easy to play a role when you're ahead by 40.  What happens when this team faces some adversity?  Who will take the last shot, when the last shot actually matters?  Accepting a role in a blow out is one thing - accepting a role in a close game is quite another.  Who will be on the floor when they receive the inevitable challenge?  And how will the seven players NOT on the floor react to their new 'role' of benchwarmer?

I could go on about this for hours and hours, but I have a plane to catch.  Like I said, Team USA will probably win on talent alone.  But don't believe Jerry Colangelo when he tells you he planned it all.  The plan wasn't executed, but at least they brought some pretty good players to Beijing.

I'm leaving for two weeks in Costa Rica with the ClipperWife.  As it happens, ClipperMax and ClipperZoe will be with their grandparents, and we're actually taking a vacation sans enfants - for two weeks!  By far the longest kid-free trip since we became parents.  So it should be fun.

As we saw when I went to Yosemite, you guys don't even need me.  Have fun; keep those FanPosts flowing.  Now that we've got Taylor posting here, there's no stopping Clips Nation!

Carry on Citizens.  I'll be back August 16th.

Continuing their very active off-season, the Clippers today signed former Clipper Brian Skinner.  Here's the press release:

The Los Angeles Clippers signed veteran forward Brian Skinner, Vice President of Basketball Operations announced today. Per team policy, terms of the deal were not announced.

Originally drafted by the Clippers in the first round (22^nd overall pick) of the 1998 NBA Draft, Skinner is a 10-year NBA veteran who returns to Los Angeles after playing 66 games last season with the Phoenix Suns. Skinner averaged 3.3 points, 3.6 rebounds and 0.2 assists for Phoenix in 2007-08.

“Brian Skinner is a veteran NBA player who will give us both size and depth in the middle,” Baylor said. “We are familiar with Brian, and know that he will be a good fit in his return to the Clippers.”

Skinner has averaged 4.9 points, 4.9 rebounds and 0.5 assists in 538 career NBA games with eight different teams. The six-foot-nine forward started his career with the Clippers in 1998-99 and played three seasons in Los Angeles.

“We are very pleased to add Brian to our front line,” Clippers head coach Mike Dunleavy said. “He adds great size, presence and veteran experience to our team.”

In addition to the Clippers and Suns, the Texas native has also played for Cleveland, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Sacramento and Portland during his NBA tenure and has played in 21 career playoff games

Is anyone else struck by the symmetry?  He left the Clippers as part of the trade that brought Brand to LA, and he signs with the Clippers as a free agent after Brand bolts to Philly.

I always liked Skinner.  Of course, we're all unrealistic dreamers or we wouldn't be Clipper fans, but does anyone else recall how great he was playing before he twisted his ankle in 2000?  He was never the same for the Clippers after that, and hasn't gotten much of a chance anywhere else.

Obviously the team decided that they could take Josh Powell's spot and use it on a veteran.  Given that Powell did not seem to have a whole lot of head room, I think it's the correct decision.  Opting for a 32 year old over a 25 year old is the move of a team that wants to compete now.  But I didn't really see Powell getting a whole lot better.  Sometimes youth represents potential, and sometimes it just represents youth.

The SBNation servers seem to be running a bit slow today, due to extraordinarily high traffic generated by the MLB trade deadline.  Apparently some guy named Manny has something to do with it.

Sorry about the inconvenience.  They're working on it, and in fact it does seem to be getting better the last hour or so.  So be patient and hopefully it will be working normally soon.  I know a couple people at least have had comments that they thought were lost that eventually showed up.  That's a symptom of the slow servers.