Prediction on a stick: Out on a limb for the Pacers

After the widely boo-hoo'd 8-player trade last year, the Pacers went 9-5 with the new guys on the floor (Jan 20 - Feb 21). I think the team had to feel that the dust was finally settling after the whole series of disasters and screw-ups starting with the brawl and stretching to Jackson's demonstration of pistol politics in the club parking lot.  They were actually 6-2 up until Feb 3.

Feb 6: the fight at the 8 Second Saloon.
Feb 23 headline: Tinsley, Daniels surrender to police.
Mar 2: Marquis Daniels out for the rest of the year.

From Feb 23 to Mar 30, the Pacers go 2-17. But due to the quality of their record before this streak, and the lack of quality opponents in the East, the Pacers were still in the playoff race.  Waking up like a groggy fighter who has managed to hold on to the end of the round, they threw a little leather in self defense, in an attempt to secure the playoff spot, going 4-2 the first 11 days of April.

They closed with losses after being mathematically eliminated from the race. JO didn't even play the last two games.

What's the point of this re-hash?

Just this: The Pacers this year are better on paper than the post-trade Pacers last year. And (knock wood) with a together locker room, a no-nonsense management attitude, and another mostly healthy year from Jamaal and JO, I believe that even the kindest prediction I've seen this year (our kind host's...40 wins-42 losses) falls short.

My prediction, and not necessarily scientific methodology...46 wins, 36 losses. 4th in the Central; 6th in the East.

The...uhh...methodology, as promised:

These teams are better than the Pacers --
Spurs
Phoenix
Dallas
Utah
Houston
Chicago
Detroit (probably)
Cleveland (ditto)
Boston (ditto)
Denver
Golden State

These teams are about the same level as the Pacers--
Nets
Lakers
Toronto
Washington

We're better than the rest of them. Yes, even Miami. Shaq's pinky-toe or some other bodily part will be the story there.

So the math is easy. Heck, you might even say simplistic: 29 losses to the better teams; 39 wins over the worse teams; split 14 with the peer-group. 46-36.

Obviously I'm relying on statistics to balance this all out. Will Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland et al beat us all 4 times each plays us? Unlikely. Will we beat NY all 4 times we play them. Again, unlikely. We-ll go 1-3, 3-1, 2-2, etc. But it will be a wash in the end.

That's my story anyway.