Going 16-7 through the first 23 games has to be considered a success, sliced in any direction. The Pacers have taken a huge leap forward in confidence, intensity and defensive performance, firmly planting their flag on the right side of playoff demarcation. However, for every inch of optimism gained by stifling defense, a good portion has been given back by frustratingly impotent offense. The Pacers are giving up just 98.5 points per 100 possessions, the 5th best mark in the league. They are scoring just 102.1 points per 100 possessions, 18th in the league. There have been massive explosions and utter fizzles but, by and large, the nightly best case scenario for the offense has been 'just enough.'

Every Pacers' fan was hoping for a leap of similar proportions this season, but I don't think most expected it to be accomplished primarily with defense. David West was supposed to provide an offensive focus, slotted at 1b alongside Danny Granger as 1a. George Hill was supposed to provide efficient offensive depth that was lacking the past few seasons. Continued development from Roy Hibbert, Tyler Hansbrough and Paul George was supposed to fill in the gaps, giving the Pacers a versatile and potent attack.

A prong of that attack, discussed repeatedly this off-season, was a new focus on the pick-and-roll. Integrating West's unique skill set, and increasing the pick-and-roll frequency for Hansbrough and Hibbert was the final piece in a long march away from the offensive principles of Jim O'Brien. However, this set in particular has been a problem for the Pacers' offense and serves as a microcosm for their larger offensive problems.

Continue reading this post »

Roy Hibbert has played terrific basketball to start the season. I'll admit it's tough to shed memories of last December and January when his production dropped off precipitously, but he looks like a different player than we've seen at any point previously. He's shooting a career high 52.6% from the field, and his rebound percentages are as high as they've ever been at both ends of the floor. His minutes per game are up for the fourth year in a row and, most importantly, the Pacers have been much better when he's in the game, something that wasn't always the case last year, even when he was producing.

The biggest improvement is they way he's been scoring in the post. According to mySynergySports, Hibbert is scoring 0.94 points per possession on post-ups, the 14th best mark in the league this young season, shooting 51.9%. Last season that mark was 0.81 points per possession, 107th in the league, with a FG% of 41.5%. I think we were all expecting some changes in the offense, but mostly of the David West pick-and-pop variety. Instead, Hibbert on the low block has become the center of the Pacers' attack.

Credit for this new interior forcefulness has gone to new relaxation exercises and off-season work and communication with Tim Duncan. A strengthened mind-body connection makes plenty of sense. When you watch him in the post he does look different. Nothing has obviously changed with his body, but he looks much more balanced both in establishing position, and working for his shot. His movements are also much more purposeful -everything is moving towards the basket or open space, instead of sideways or backwards. But I think the biggest difference has to do with timing.

Continue reading this post »

The NBA's free agency period won't officially begin until Dec. 9th, but that hasn't put a damper on any of the excitement in Indianapolis. The Pacers have already been linked with Nene, David West, Carl Landry, Paul Millsap and Rajon Rondo. As excited as I am about the possibilities for new players, the wild guessing and prolific rumormongering can be exhausting. In this lull before anything official can take place I'm channeling my excitement towards the players who are already here.

I'm thankful for so many things about the return of NBA basketball, but I'm especially grateful that Paul George won't miss a year of development. I think George was a pleasant surprise for most Pacers' fans, even those who had high expectations for him at the beginning of the season. He showed off his terrific physical tools, brought maximum effort on defense and flashed the potential for a potent offensive game.

He's young and there's no question that development is needed in several areas, but receiving daily coaching and playing in actual NBA games is the best way to get at it. So what would we like to see from George in his second season? What can we reasonably expect to see?

Continue reading this post »

It is no surprise that the Indiana Pacers are involved in early trade rumors and free agent speculation thanks to the amount of both cap space and desire they have to make changes. But before the season starts on Christmas Day the Pacers may end up being mentioned in EVERY trade rumor.

The first big rumor involves the Boston Celtics moving point guard Rajon Rondo to the Pacers as part of a potential three-team deal for the C's to acquire Chris Paul. Maybe I'm too familiar with all of the blemishes on the Pacers roster but every time I try to add up some combination of players to include in such a deal, someone is getting screwed and it wouldn't be the Pacers.

There should be no doubt that every Pacer under contract is a potential trade target, but I can't see the Pacers giving up Danny Granger for a player like Rondo, unless they have more options in the hopper. Rondo would continue a tradition of Pacer point guards with a sketchy outside shot from T.J. Ford to Jamaal Tinsley to Mark Jackson to Pooh Richardson to Vern Fleming. None torched the nets from behind the arc although Jax had his share of "No, No, No...Great shot!" moments.

But Rondo can make plays and what he brings better than any of those past PG's is a perimeter defensive presence, especially on the ball, which hasn't been seen from from an Indiana point guard since Fleming. But I'm getting ahead of myself here. How will the Pacers be able to land Rondo, again?

Aside from the Pacers issues with the deal, it may not happen just because New Orleans gets a better deal elsewhere. Eric Gordon was mentioned as part of a package the L.A. Clippers my offer. That would be good for the Pacers too, since Gordon may be more willing to leave the Hornets than a stocked Clippers team when he's a free agent next summer.

Plenty of other rumors and speculation in the links after the jump as the NBA free agent market is now open for business. Speaking of which, don't miss Tom Ziller's complete list of free agent options.

Continue reading this post »

Whenever the lockout ends, a brief and intense free agent signing period will inevitably follow. During that time the Pacers seem likely to pursue a power forward, endeavoring to upgrade what's often seen as the team's biggest hole. Fans were excited about the potential Josh McRoberts showed early, and thrilled with the development of Tyler Hansbrough late. Despite all the positive feelings, the season ended with a general sense that the young duo wasn't quite good enough.  

Hansbrough and McRoberts saw the bulk of the power forward minutes, but they weren't the only contributors. According to 82games.com, the Pacers' minutes last season were distributed like this:

• Tyler Hansbrough - 38%
• Josh McRoberts - 33%
• Danny Granger - 18%
• James Posey - 8%
• Jeff Foster - 1%
• Paul George, Mike Dunleavy, Solomon Jones - 2%

Continue reading this post »

Continue reading this post »

The Pacers' splashiest, and only (thank you very much lockout) roster move this summer was adding George Hill in a draft night trade with the San Antonio Spurs. Acquiring an established, successful and still young player was a solid move; not to mention the P.R. bonus of his local roots. Hill stirred up even more excitement when he went ahead and scored 50 points in a Pro-Am game this summer. Not to be a buzzkill, but I mean to cut through some of the excitement and establish some realistic expectations for his performance. We'll approach what those might look like from a few different angles, but today we'll start with what role he might play in the Pacers' offense. 

Last season the Pacers' offense struggled, becoming progressively more stagnant as the year went on; reaching the point of being almost unwatchable in the playoffs against the Bulls. The roster was filled with some efficient complementary scorers and Danny Granger; a very potent scorer, but one who doesn't excel at creating his own opportunities. The Pacers had offensive weapons but lacked a dynamic individual creator, or a consistently effective manner of attack, to bind the whole system together. Although it hasn't been said explicitly by anyone in the organization, I get the feeling there is some hope that George Hill can provide some help in the dynamic individual creation department. Is he really up to this task?

Continue reading this post »

Without the the certainty of a new season to look forward to, I've found myself spending more and more time mulling over last year. In particular I've been trying to quantify exactly how I feel about Frank Vogel becoming the permanent head coach of the Pacers. Like many Pacers' fans I was both excited and disappointed at times by the Pacers' with Vogel at the helm. I did however find it refreshing to watch how the team changed under their new coach.

The two things I found most frustrating about Jim O'Brien's tenure were a lack of diversity at the offensive end, and the insistence on including ineffective players in his rotations. Specifically, the early season minutes that went to Solomon Jones and James Posey had me pulling my hair out. During his time in Indiana, O'Brien was never blessed with much in the way of depth, but I still found myself constantly frustrated by how minutes were divided.

In a post I just finished at Hickory-High, I tried creating a method to determine how effective different NBA coaches have been at managing their rotations. For each coach I looked at the correlation between the number of minutes they played each five-man unit and how effective that unit was. To measure the effectiveness of each unit I used the Net Rating (Offensive Rating - Defensive Rating) and weighted it by how many minutes that unit had played. 

Continue reading this post »