Waiting on the Pacers vs. Wizards

by Tom Lewis on Oct 30, 2007 8:17 PM EDT in Indiana Pacers News

Happy NBA Opening Night!
Enjoy the few opening games tonight as you get pumped for the Pacers opener tomorrow night against the Washington Wizards. Here are a few items of interest regarding the opener:

Let's get the bad news out of the way. Jermaine O'Neal and Troy Murphy are doubtful for the opener. Sounds like J.O. MAY be able to go but let's not count on it. This is a bit of a buzz kill after such a strong preseason. I'm hoping the Pacers can get off to a surprisingly good start, but beginning the year short-handed won't help. Courtney Sims was brought back to the roster for emergency front court help. And here I thought (hoped...prayed) the Pacers were just being cautious with J.O. to make sure he was primed and ready to go for the regular season. I can't take another season where the terms 'lingering injury' accompany every J.O. story.
Don't forget Shawne Williams is suspended for the first three games, so his absence further diminishes the Pacers arsenal, which will make it tough to keep pace with the Wiz.
If the Pacers have to play without J.O., the Wizards are probably as favorable a match up as they can have since they don't rely heavy production from their bigs. First one to 130 may win this game since the Pacers have shown they're going to get their shots and the Wizards will be the first to tell you that they struggle on defense. I'm sure defense has been emphasized throughout the preseason for the Wiz, still, this game will depend on the Pacers ability to knock down shots. They've been streaky at best and if they are knocking them down I can see opening W in the P's future. If not, trouble, because Gilbert Arenas and the rest of the Wiz will get theirs.
The Wizards are a team that expects to make the playoffs, but with the way the Eastern Conference is shaping up, they could be looking at that 6-8 seed, at best. If the Pacers want to nudge their way into the playoffs, the will probably need to beat out the Wiz. This should be a nice early indication of where the Pacers fit in the East. Again, it would be nice to have J.O, but there are no excuses on opening night.
Check out Bullets Forever to get the latest news on the Wizards leading up to the opening tip tomorrow night.

Projected Starters
Here are the projected starters assuming the Jermaine O'Neal and Troy Murphy will miss the game. I'm sure J.O. is going to do everything in his power to give it a go. Sounds like he's much closer to playing than Murphy.

PACERS	pos.	WIZARDS
Jermaine O'Neal*	F	Antawn Jamison
Danny Granger	F	Caron Butler
Jeff Foster	C	Brendan Haywood
Mike Dunleavy	G	Gilbert Arenas
Jamaal Tinsley	G	DeShawn Stevenson

*J.O.'s been upgraded to a game-time decision. If he can't go, Ike Diogu will probably start in his place.

What Else?
Here are a few other items to ponder:

There's reason for hope after checking out some analysis of preseason records here (insider) and here. Looks like the preseason isn't exactly meaningless for poorly rated looking to have a good season. Hey, the Pacers resemble that remark. (hat tip: TrueHoop)
Bruno's latest Caught in the Web takes a look at the task at hand for the Pacers if they want to make the playoffs.
Check out this preview from We Rite Goode which I contributed to after a few preseason games raised my spirits.
Larry Joe Legend expresses his optimism on the eve of the opener.
Here's some more optimism from the Pacers. They sound convinced that they're not going to be as bad as people think. Hey, you gotta start somewhere.

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Comments

With or without JO -- a rant

Maybe we can pray, with some small measure of faith that our prayers will be answered, that the Pacers this year will be able to adjust smoothly to line-up changes that occur because Jermaine is either on the floor or stuck on the bench.

I would hope (I do hope!) that with the O'B style of motion offense, that JO will be just another cog in the machine. A very productive cog, yes. But with JO, or Ike, or Jeff, or David, Troy, etc...sorry Courtney, I guess you're the etc...or any combination of those big guys in the mix, this offense should theoretically (I hate that word) be able to produce points with a free-flowing, quick-hitting game.

As to the linked We Rite Good site, and their self-confessed admiration of John Hollinger of ESPN....pule-e-eze. Hollinger is an economics major, with concentration in statistics. "Looking backward"?? Boy howdy. He can't look any way else. He couldn't analyze the vibe in a locker room if he tripped over it.

The more cautious of the pundits are already beginning to back off their collective trashing of the Pacers' prospects...e.g. Marc Stein's ESPN power rankings raising the Pacers from 29th to 23rd this week, and their sudden discovery that maybe the preseason record DOES mean something.

STATISTICALLY, poorly-regarded teams that have done well in the preseason have gone on to make the playoffs. Well, dang, stick that in your database and crunch it, Hollinger.

OK. I feel better now.

by kester99 on Oct 30, 2007 9:12 PM EDT reply actions

Let 'er rip my friend

I find the latest hoops stats interesting but you can never account for human nature and the emotional aspects involved. Like you say, how do you measure the vibe in a locker room. These aren't robots performing repeatable processes and anyone who tells you what will happen tomorrow night in the Fieldhouse based on any statistical view of the past might as well be drawing the winner out of a hat because they'd be guessing.

by Tom Lewis on Oct 30, 2007 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions