FanPost

Offensive rebounding vs. getting back on defense


It seems pretty clear to this observer/fan that a decision has been made, by the Pacers, to work extra hard getting back in transition defense. And I have to wonder how wise this is, as the Pacers have always been a very strong rebounding team, and I am unaware of any stats that show the deference between % of wins concentrating on transition defense or rebounding on the offensive end.

So I have gone back through the Pacers defeats to look at OFR and % TRB and % and turnovers, because i think there are a few games where turnovers outweigh all of the rebounding stats. To be honest i have not taken the wins into these stats, nor have i looked at other mitigating factors such as shot % or free throws...all of which i suspect may play into some losses, i just wanted to see how the offensive rebounding was in the few losses they have had this season, and thereby wonder if, the choice to forgo good hard offensive rebounding in favor of transition defense has served them well in their losses. I haven't rounded up on % and I add the score for result.

So lets look at my picked stats for the game they have lost this year:

Pacers OPP Score

OFR % TRB % TOV DFR % TRB % TOV

Chi 12 26 37 46 9 33 73 42 53 13 94-110

Por 9 20 42 51 15 34 79 40 48 14 102-106

Okc 9 20 29 38 13 36 80 46 61 18 94-119

Det 9 20 40 42 20 35 79 55 57 8 96-101

Min 6 15 36 49 14 32 84 37 50 12 94-97

Tor 7 18 36 48 22 30 81 39 52 12 82-95

Atl 14 33 46 57 16 28 66 34 42 10 87-97

Pho 10 26 39 52 20 28 73 35 47 9 100-124

Den 10 19 51 52 16 41 80 46 47 14 96-109

Pho 14 28 47 50 15 35 71 46 49 12 94-102

Orl 7 15 41 46 15 37 84 48 53 13 92-93

Dal 10 21 47 50 16 37 78 47 50 13 73-81

Min 9 18 49 52 21 39 47 44 42 15 91-104

In every game they have lost they have been under 15 OFR and except for 2 games they have been near 25%(or below) in OFR%, with 8 loses at 20% OFR or less. The Atl game was a very low scoring game and the Pacers played terrible, so perhaps some other stat explains that loss. The Pho game 1 is perhaps explained by the 20-9 turnover ratio. To my untrained eye(and granted this is flawed because the stats of the other games they won are not included here) it really seems to me that when their opponents rebound on the defensive end above 70% and turnovers being similar, they lose. The Min game is an aberration to that posit.

I can't help but wonder the outcome of really stressing hard Pacer rebounding on the offensive end vs trying to leak out in transition and letting the opponent out rebound us.

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