FanPost

Match the offer is safest

Pacer Nation is being held hostage as we all wait to see of Roy Hibbert stays or goes off to Portland. The local media is having a great time debating this matter and from where I sit the Pacers are screwed either way.

I don't care what the local media says about what Pacer insiders are telling them. They don't really know. I am a baseball fan and two weeks ago on Chicago sports talk radio I heard that the White Sox would be sellers at the trade deadline. Within three days of that discussion the White Sox had traded for three time All Star Kevin Youkilis. One only has to look back a few months ago at how both Irsay and Manning used the media as a tool to know that the media is often told what the insider wants them to print.

Mike Wells point of view is do not sign him. No Roy is probably not worth $14 Million in terms of production and constancy. It does put a strain on the salary cap and what else the team can do. It is also silly of Portland to make the offer because Roy isn't going to put the Blazers in the play-offs by himself nor will they be anywhere near close to playing with the Lakers or OKC for the Western Conference title with or without him. They have too many holes.

Locally many have gotten on the let Roy go and sign Chris Kaman and OJ Mayo band wagon. Well first of all while Kaman can replicate Hibbert's numbers but he can't replace Roy's physical play or presence inside. Roy is the focal point of Frank Vogel's "smash mouth basketball"

Second point, why would you assume you could possibly sign both Kaman and Mayo for this $14 savings on Roy? Last year Kaman made $14 million and the year before he made $11 million. If and when Roy is taken off the board then Kaman's value goes up and he isn't coming here to play for say $7 million just because we are a nice city and so OJ can have the other $7 mil. Even if they got Mayo and Kaman they would still be missing a shot blocker like Roy.

Dallas has lost out on every free agent they targeted so far this summer and now they are looking at Kaman and Mayo too. Since Kaman's grandparents are German natives, he plays for the German national team and is a good friend to DIRK! So you smartly let Roy go and then get outbid by Cuban for both Kaman and Mayo and then you have to completely retool the team.

No, sorry to the let Roy go crowd but the safest thing to do is to match the offer and then try to secure Courtney Lee. Lee doesn't quite give you quite what Mayo can but he is likely to come cheaper, has much less baggage and is another local kid. Then see if you can get Elton Brand to jump at their $5 million exception they currently have and then you might have something.

In any case I wish them well and do not envy the position they are in because they are damned if they do and damned if they don't. Portland's max offer is just another example of how owners need to be protected from their own stupidity.

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