FanPost

A question regarding Hibbert's 'offer' (and commentary)


So, the number we keep hearing that Portland has offered Hibbert is 4 years at $58 million. However, I remember reading at some point that, because max contracts are now directly tied to the salary cap, the number is more likely to be in the 4 years for $54 million dollar range. Anybody else hear/read that and can shed some light on it?

My thoughts on the numbers (assuming the $58 million/4 years number) after the break.

To be honest, the more I think about the actual numbers, the more I am okay with matching this offer (95% OK with it, anyway). 4 years/$58 million makes Hibbert a $14.5 mill/year player. He's basically a 10/10/2(pts/rbs/blks) guy right now at 30 minutes per game. We probably can't expect his minutes to go much higher than 33-34 at most because of his asthma problems. Assuming that Hibbert does not get any more efficient offensively, plays just a couple more minutes per game, and our wings figure out how to throw an entry pass (sweet Jesus that was ugly all year), it is not unreasonable to think that he could put up something more like 14/11/2.25 per game. I'm fine with that production out of a true 7'2" center with above average defensive chops (very good shot blocker/changer, needs work in PnR's).

Is $14.5 million per year overpaying for Hibbert's production? Yes. But only by around $2 million. This is not a contract that is going to strangle us the way JO's did. The contracts are not truly comparable (JO made closer to/right at $20 mil/year, Roy is basically 2/3rds of that).

That is from a pure production standpoint. Beyond that, however, is the fact that Hibbert is a really good citizen (work with various organizations in Indy especially Boys and Girls Clubs), he has made a concerted effort to get fans to BLF (Area 55), and he is a good face for the Pacers and Indiana (Parks and Rec, stints on NBA TV, other stuff). You can't get that from the free agent market if you are Indianapolis. You also cannot replace the "momentum" the Pacers would lose with the fan base by giving up the guy who is, arguably, the most popular Pacer.

Basically, what I am saying is: the Blazers offer doesn't really overpay by that much. Some of us were hoping to get a hometown discount, but it didn't happen. Sign Roy, it's worth it.

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