What's next? None of the deals we are seeing are finalized. However, the one's that have reported offer sheets signed, are as good as done deals.
Here's what we know (or can safely assume):
1. D.Will was a pipe dream
2. Hibbert really impressed some teams and he's going to get VERY close to $14mil. his first year and more for the rest of his deal.
3. Hill probably got his $7mil. per year....maybe more.
4. Players are getting overpaid.
5. A lot of the players we discussed, Nash, Mayo, Dragic, Hawes, Gordon, Kaman (if we keep Hibbert), etc. aren't coming here.
So, now what? What to expect. Well, here's what I would do.
Personally, I fear that this off-season is not panning out to be the turning point we all thought. But instead, we are entering a declining plateau. I thought we were going to be able to add a REAL impact player through the draft (I have much more hope for OJ than Plumlee at this point) and a 6th or 7th man through free agency. What it's starting to look like is that we drafted another Hansbrough type Bird love-affair that won't meet our needs and will have to pay more than we thought for our own free agents to struggle to keep our head above water (by that I mean home court in the playoffs and a likely, ugly 2nd round boot from the playoffs for years to come). I fear we are turning from an up and coming team to the new Hawks. Pretty good, but not good enough to compete.
We can argue about how pessimistic I am...or how optimistic you are. How we still have room to grow (and they do as individuals...but...most have 6-8 years of college and pro experience...that's not a ton of upside). But, here's what I would do...If I was in charge...My 2012 off-season decisions would hinge on Hibbert. Offer him $68, maybe $70mil. for 5 years. Here's how I'd do it.
Before I make a final offer to Hibbert, I make a ton of offers...or at least a ton of phone calls. Moves that will work if we get Hibbert, or if we just get some very short term replacement.
I think our biggest need, that can realistically be met is a backup PF/C or PF/SF. Here's my targets. Pretty close to the order in which I would pursue them with the max money I'd offer them.
Backup PF and/or SF…If we know we are keeping Hibbert (and need to be cheap):
A.Jamison- $8.5mil./3 years (35% guaranteed team option in 3rd year)
A.Randolph- $5.5mil./2 years (player option in 2nd year)
Boris Diaw- $5.5mil./2 years(player option in 2nd year)
Rashard Lewis- $6mil./2 years
Radmanovich- Vet. Min./ 2 years
Jason Thompson- $12mil./2 years (would have him higher, but will need to nearly promise 6-7 home playoff games to get Simon to bite on the money)
Reggie Evans- $5mil./2 years
Sheldon Williams- Vet. Min./1 year
Backup Center (no hope of getting PF minutes) if we DO keep Hibbert (just don’t think Plumlee is ready to get the full 16-18 minutes Hibbert leaves on the floor):
I.Mahimni- $4.5mil./2 years
Fez- $3.5mil./2 years (won’t be enough likely)
Aaron Gray- $1.75mil./2 years (player option in 2nd year)
Hassan Whiteside- $.8mil./1 year
N.Mohamed- Vet. Min./1 year
R.Turriaf- Vet. Min./1 year
Starting C If we don’t keep Hibbert (*=need to know for sure we won’t be retaining Hibbert to make this offer):
Javele McGee*- $44/4mil.
Brook Lopez*- $32mil./4 years (40% guaranteed team option in 3rd year)
C.Kaman*- $32mil./4 years (40% guaranteed team option in 3rd year)
Robin Lopez*- $20mil./4 years (player option in 3rd year)
I.Mahimni- $12mil./3 years
Jason Thompson- $26mil./4 years (will need a D’Antoni/JOB type scheme where quick shots and rim defense is not needed)
Kris Humphries*- $30mil./4 years (pretty much like playing Murphy at center on the defensive end…and not much better on offense)
Marcus Camby*- $7mil./2 years (he’s old, but we’ll give him starting minutes with a good supporting cast)
N.Mohamed- $1.5mil./1 year (this would suck)
Speights- $11mil./2 years (this would be over paying a bit, but to sell him on starting at center…could ruin his career as this is a bad fit….we could score a lot, but will give up 110 points per game).
Jeremy Tyler- $2.5mil./1 year (total shot in the dark here)
JJ Hickson- $7mil./ 1 year (JJ at starting center???)
Jordan Hill*- $26mil./4 years (he’ll probably stay in LA. Don’t want to give him this money…but might have to if we are this far down our list of possible options)
Jordan Williams- $3.5mil./2 years
R.Turriaf- $2mil./1 year
Reggie Evans- $3.5mil./2 years
Aaron Gray- $2.5mil./2 years
Sam Dalembert- $20mil./4 years (….but I expect that Milwaukee will keep him).
Sheldon Williams- $1mil./1 years
Hassan Whiteside- $2.5mil./2 years (this would be bad if we had to decide between him and Plumlee…total rebuild mode now).
PF and or SF with Hibbert's status still in limbo:
Brandon Bass- $26mil./4 years (player option in 3rd year)
C.Landry- $22mil./4 years (player option in 3rd year)
DJ White- $4.5mil./2 years
Jason Thompson- $10.5mil./2 years (gotta be able to move him if we keep the band together and resign West)
Kris Humphries*- $17mil./2 years (would need to front load as much as possible and hope Simon stomach’s moving breaking even on 6 playoff home games)
D.Arthur- $12mil./3 years (35% guaranteed team option in 2nd year)
Damian James- $1mil./1 year
Ebanks- $1mil./1 year
J.Green- $22mil./4 years (25% guaranteed team option in 3rd year)
Jared Jeffries- $8mil./3 years
Speights- $20mil./4 years (player option in 3rd year)
Ersan Ilyasova- $26mil./4 years (sounds like he’s staying in Milwaukee or going to Euro)
Jeremy Tyler- $4.5mil./2 years
JJ Hickson- $22mil./
Jordan Hill- $10mil./2 years
Jordan Williams- $1mil./1 year
Travis Outlaw- Vet min.
Trey Thompkins- $.8mil./2 years