FanPost

Gerald Green = Fred Jones?

I've seen the comparison a couple times on here and I thought I would look into it based on a comparison of individual and team stats.

In 2012 the Nets won 33% of the games they played. Gerald Green had his best season as a pro playing in just under half of New Jersey's games.

In 2004 The Pacers won just over 50% of their games and were thought to be serious title contenders. We won't get into why they weren't. Fred Jones had his best season as a pro playing in 77 games at just under 30 minutes per.

When you look at the two teams, the only position that was heads and shoulders better for the Nets was Deron Williams compared to Jammal Tinsley. Brook Lopez and Jermaine O'neal have an interesting match-up at the F/C spot but at this point in both their respected careers I will go out on a limb and say that JO was the better player, however Lopez only played in 8 games and O'Neal played just over half the season, you know for throwing the wickedest punch in NBA history (that's right not even the Rudy T. face collapser was that awesome). So while JO wasn't himself all year long he still helped to take touches away from Freddy. The Pacers were a significantly better team even with suspensions.That said, at one point during the season Fred Jones played 6 games back to back at more than 40 minutes per because the pacers didn't have another 2 guard with Reggie injured. So his opportunities were there.

in 2012 Gerald Green started in 6% of the games he played.
in 04-05 Fred Jones started in %18 of the games he played.

Green averaged 25 minutes per game
Jones averaged 29.5 minutes per

Per 36 minutes Green averaged 18.4, 5 and 1 stl on 48% shooting
Per 36 minutes Jones averaged 12.9, 3.8 and 1 stl on 42% shooting
(it's important to note that Jones averaged 4.5 FEWER shots per 36 than Green.)

Green's PER was 15.8
Jones' PER was 13.3

Green shoots a higher true percentage than Jones by .02

Green's Offensive Rating was 103 while Jones' was 108 and their Defensive ratings were within a point.

What does all of this mean?

Fred Jones played more games for the 04-05 Pacers than anyone else on his team, and while one would think his numbers would have almost definitely been better on a worse team with similar playing time if you look to his time spent with the Clippers(08-09) he averaged more than 28 mpg and every major statistical category took a hit. If you look at the 2005-06 Pacers where Jones averaged 27 mpg and playing behind such talent as Peja and Sarunas, one would assume that his numbers would be similar to the year prior given his age 25-26 and opportunity given the overall weaker team, however while his attempts per 36 went up from 10 to 11 his points per 36 decreased by .1.

Green is tougher to draw on from history. His background is spotty to say the least and it would be foolish to say we can predict how he'll preform based on his time in the NBA. Given the positive reports and the fact that as a 21 year old 2nd year pro his PER was a 12.0 and last year's 15.8 we can hope that we're getting a very good role player.

I think that it's almost impossible to say that Green and Jones will be similar by simply looking at statistics there are too many factors at play, such as it seems that Jones had a career year on a good team while Green had a better year on a bad team. How Green reacts to the increased talent around him and his role will determine the type of output we can expect to see from him.

I believe that (if Green in fact has "figured it out" and "grown up") at worst we did in fact land a taller Fred Jones, at best he'll be in contention for 6th man of the year.

I could be wrong all together. Admittedly I'm more of a football guy.

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