Well, yeah. The Pacers haven't actually played well in the first two games.
Yes, they competed, fought hard and had bursts of exceptional play, but overall there have been too many breakdowns and sloppy turnovers to consider the Pacers (or Heat for that matter) playing anywhere in the vicinity of well. The Pacers have become quite adept at winning ugly and grinding through poor play to give themselves a chance, a big reason they ended up with 42 wins. The Pacers put it together in their Game 3 win over Orlando but I'm having a hard time remembering the last time both the starters and second unit played well in the same game.
So if the Pacers continue to turn the ball over, miss free throws and break down offensively the Pacers will not survive this series with the Heat. On the other hand, if they can tighten up all of those areas and continue delivering a strong defensive effort that prioritizes keeping LeBron James and Dwyane Wade away from the rim while still closing out on shooters on the perimeter, then things will really be rockin' at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.
I saw this nice breakdown of Game 2 from Coach Nick at BBallBreakdown.com, in which he actually analyzes both teams as opposed to what the Heat are or are not doing. He also doesn't see much championship caliber play. Check out the video after the jump.