Statistical Query: Why Am I A Nene-Sayer?

I still think Hibbert has two really important things going for him: youth and an incredible work ethic. Those are the cliches often used by those who support Hibbert, and I think they’re legitimate. He’s got size, youth, and continued potential which makes it easier for me to forgive/understand his inconsistencies. That said, if Hibbert continues to show himself to be plagued by inconsistency next season, then my perception will start to change about the player he can become. The sample size at that point would be too hard to ignore.

Ultimately what I’m saying is, at this point, based on cost effectiveness, potential, youth etc., if I had to choose between the two (Hibbert and Nene), I’d choose Hibbert. And while Ian brought up some hard-to-debate logic regarding the difficulties of a Hibbert-Nene tandem, I still wouldn’t mind Indy taking a chance on it…if the price is right, of course.

…but I wanted to make one more comment regarding people’s assumption that Nene will be re-signing with Denver, no questions asked. Some are beginning to think that it’s highly possible he will opt out, and this speculation is based on some comments Nene made a month or so ago to the Denver Post:

But it’s not all about the next contract for Nene. There is a large component of appreciation that Nene says is missing, and that’s proving to be equally as important as the dollars.

“If I play happy, if I enjoy the game, my game improves,” Nene said. "I did my best for the team, for the city. I tried to do my best for the fans. But the (Nuggets) need to understand you need to see the return on the other side, or you need to look for it. You need to look for it sometimes.

“They don’t realize all of the sacrifices I made. When you don’t feel appreciated, it’s hard.”

Is there some posturing going on there? Possibly. But with the Melodrama and the Nuggets’ inability to extend him during the season, I could see Nene being dissatisfied enough to at least taking at look at other teams.

with our luck he would fall apart. again

and hibbert was pretty bad this year. that fg% was atrocious.

And that’s why he’s been high on my target list.

It has been my opinion for some time that Roy Hibbert needs to be replaced, before he signs his next contract. Paying rookie scale for a mediocre and entirely unreliable player is survivable, but committing long term in a market that grossly over values bigs could be devastating.

The problem with trying to find a PF to play next to Roy is that you have to find a great player. Essentially, you’re looking for someone who will cover all of Roy’s weaknesses, and that’s just not going to happen.

And that’s always going to be the core problem with Hibbert. There’s no way that you can marginalize his presence enough so that he doesn’t hurt the team. He’s a woefully inefficient offensive player, particularly in the post, but if he’s there, the temptation to try to get something out of him will be overwhelming. You can’t convert him to a defensive/rebounding center because he doesn’t defend the post well, he doesn’t defend the PnR well, and he does a poor job of protecting the rim.

The counter-argument is that he’s young, but I find that weak. When you look at his problems, where he needs to improve, they aren’t skills, they’re attributes. Even at the reduced weight, he was slow and lacking in athleticism. He was never strong enough to hold position, even at the heavier weight, and it’s unlikely that he ever will be. More importantly, he is just far, far too fragile mentally to ever put much trust in.

Ultimately, for Hibbert to be the kind of player that this organization needs him to be, he needs to become a different person, not a better player. I don’t believe that a wise thing to do.

But others might, and the market is likely to see a likeable 7’2" Center in his mid-20’s, and gamble on what could (but never will) be. I think whoever takes that gamble is going to lose, and lose badly. You’re far better off replacing him, before you have to pay him.

Roy Hibbert has been a success since the day the Pacers drafted him, to say that he has been a disappointment is just unfair the Hibbert. The Guy was drafted 17th overall and is already arguably in the top ten centers in the league. So much has been made about Roy’s weakness and to a lot of extant over overestimating those weaknesses. Hibbert has shown tremendeous improvement last season with his developemnt of vast array of finishing arsenals, though of course he’s no where near perfecting those moves as his disappoint statline would sugguest. But to simply give up on Hibbert this offseason is just based on lack of patience. Hibbert’s many critiques are based on his ‘softness’, which are largely untrue. Last season Roy Hibbert was a defensive key to every Pacers opponent as there are very few Centers that could match up with hibbert one on one, hence resulting in Hibbert recieving many double teams. There were a few players that Hibbert struggled with because they were physical and did not allow Hibbert to get to his sweet spot, but there are just only a handful of defenders that could do that to Hibbert. On the defense side of the ball, Roy Hibbert was the back bone of the Pacers, although he is no where near the athlete and caliber of someone like dwight howard, Roy Hibbert does his best to challenge every shot he could whenever the perimeter defense collapses and because of this the Pacers were fourth best in rim defense last season. And does anyone really believe the Pacers would be a 50+ team with Nene instead of Hibbert? come on.

It’s just about strength conditioning really. Yes he was statistically terrible. But there are moments when Roy looks like a legitimate top 10 center. His biggest problem is his lack of strength. He’s 7’2". A lot of guys in the NBA are going to have problems with 7’2". But they won’t have a problem if he can’t get deep position or back them down. He’s easy to push out and inevitably has to settle for jumpers, pass it off, and is in terrible rebounding position, hence his only 7.2 rebs/game.

If he can get stronger, especially in the lower body, I look to see improvement. If his frame can’t support it, then he will be maxed out because of his physical limitations. He has made great strides and I have no reason to think he won’t continue in those strides, but there is the possibility Hibbert will stay mostly where he is and the Pacers can’t live with that.

It’s gonna take 2 years before Roy reaches his potential, whatever that may be. Roy is not gonna be Dwight Howard, but he can reach Bynum/Perkins/Brad Miller/Ilgauskas levels. I mention those guys b/c they took 3-4 years to fully develop and find their niche. I think that whomever we hire as coach (Vogel or Brown hopefully) will understand what Roy needs to do and how they can use his height, skill set, and enthusiasm for the game.

Also factor in his health. Bigs who can play 70 games a season are hard to find. Of course, anything can happen at any time, but all things equal, I’d rather keep him. Plus, there’s always that fear that he puts it all together, figures it all out, then spends his prime years balling out, and we basically develop him for another team to use.

I think now, with more emphasis on getting to the hoop with Danny, Darren, Paul, Lance (if he makes it), and Tyler bulldogging his way in, Roy’s size and length on tip-ins will become a major part of the offense. Also, his hook shot is gonna become automatic the more he works, and he’s gonna understand how to use it to set up other facets of his game (up-and-under, passing to cutters, passing to open shooters, drawing fouls, etc.).

I just think the positives outweigh the bad right now. Potential, good lockerroom guy, good fan support, and I believe on the cusp of really becoming a consistent, steady player, now that he’s away from O’Brien and will have a coach who can use his skill set to fit within the team.

Hawks are gonna trade him as i head

Alot of analysis and discussion of the Hawks in the playoffs revolved around Josh Smith’s shot selection. He was getting better results for his team by playing on the low post. But he continued to take jump shots. He is extremely athletic and a locker room leader. But considering what he will be paid, not worth it. We need players who put team first.