Oddity in Pacers lineup results

by YaoPau on Mar 9, 2011 6:47 PM EST

Bulls fan here. Hello.

I was checking lineup data on basketballvalue, and I was amazed to see the Pacers' lineup of Collison-Dunleavy-Granger-McRoberts-Hibbert has arguably been the NBA's #1 lineup this season, with a +14.2 net rating per 100 possessions and 440 minutes played. Would've never guessed.

Couple questions:

(1) How have they been so good? Are they that good?

(2) The funny thing is, when Rush replaces Dunleavy in that lineup, it suddenly turns into one of the league's worst lineups, at -15.5 per 100 possessions in 227 minutes. The ORating drops from 113.7 to 100.4, and even more odd, the DRating drops from 99.4 to 116.0. And all this despite Dunleavy and Rush posting similar per36 numbers. Any idea what's causing the change? Sorry if these numbers been posted before.

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Comments

what causes the change?

brandon rush is a terrible terrible bball player that won’t have a job in 2 years.

by dbcb on Mar 9, 2011 6:54 PM EST reply actions

440 and 227 aren't huge sample sizes...

…but, it should be enough to assume it was played against 15 or 30 different teams.

Our offensive flow and defensive rotations are better with Dunleavy, but they don’t seem that much better. I wonder if they were a bit skewed by the recent stretches. The 5+ games where the Dunleavy lineup was getting lots of playing time against the Clevelands, Torontos, and NJs of the world while the Rush lineup has gotten a big chunk of those 227 minutes against some decent Western confernce teams on the road.

Still, there is something to that. I don’t think Rush is as terrible as some say, but he doesn’t seem to have much desire to contribute. We’ll trade him to ya. Want him?

peac.e

by trucutter on Mar 9, 2011 8:45 PM EST reply actions

Basketball Value was behind

they updated their numbers on the 8th and that unit’s nowhere to be seen

I don't know what to do. At all.

by IndyPacers on Mar 10, 2011 4:00 AM EST reply actions

That's probably the best explanation.

Also that lineup really only thrives in an uptempo game. Against bad teams they can run easily off defensive rebounds and create turnovers. Against better teams those same opportunities aren’t there.

There are really only two plays: Romeo and Juliet, and put the darn ball in the basket. ~Abe Lemons
Find me at IndyCornrows
and Hickory-High

by Ian Levy on Mar 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST up reply actions

It's still there

Still #1 by Net Rating among lineups with 400+ minutes. You might’ve been looking at adjusted, which is probably a fairer estimate, though those standard errors are so enormous it’s impossible to tell. So maybe they’re facing easier talent than most starting lineups, but that net rating is still huge.

by YaoPau on Mar 13, 2011 12:26 AM EST up reply actions