Let's talk 2011-12

by trucutter on Mar 17, 2011 1:37 AM EDT

I know we are in the heat of a sort of pathetic playoff run. Don't get me wrong, I'm enjoying this teams ups, annoyed by their downs, and thoroughly amused at how awful the bottom half of the East is. But, I think we all can agree the distant future, 2012 and beyond, for this team holds the real excitement. The question is how far beyond.

Does Tyler's recent play make signing a top FA Power Forward less of a priority? Maybe. Are there other players out there worth adding to the team that will do more than just keep us in the 35 win range for the next 3 years? Not sure...not sure they will come at the right price anyway.

I'm not as adamant about doing this tear down/rebuild thing as I was the last 3 years, but I still favor it slightly over the presumption that Granger will step up and be the player he should be and that our young core will develop into a group of reliable, high quality starters andwe can fill in the gaps with free agents and draft picks and start winning now. Though, I'm ok with crossing my fingers for and moving forward with that approach...it's going to take alotof luck, effort and patience either way.

I have been saying this for a few weeks as we've all enjoyed the excitment of riding the Vogel-coaster. But, I've also been watching alot of college ball and looking at some options that might actually allow us to build via the OKC method. Here's just one I've been looking at:

It's hard to really tell what direction the Jazz want to go, but if they believe in their front court and are willing to roll with Devin Harris (don't see a lot of better options out there for them) they really just need a solid wing scorer and some role players and they could be back to 50 wins. There aren't any NBA ready G/Fs in the top of this draft (maybe Derrick Williams or...I don't know, one of the Euros?).

Keep in mind, the driving philosophy behind this concept accepts the fact that we will probably not win more than 25 games the next season or two while we let our young guys get lots of minutes (which we are already doing to a point). This deal would also assume the teams involved stay the course in the current standings and the lottery doesn't throw any curve balls with picks (which is unlikely) and that the new CBA isn't too far off from the current.

I'd be cool with this:

Trade Danny Granger and maybe a S&T of Foster (or throw in Rush???):

for

Mehmet Okur (they are too close to the cap to just absorb Danny) and the 6th pick and swap their own 12th-13th pick with our 15th pick andGordon Hayward or a future protected pick (I might prefer the pick and I might settle for them keeping Hayward and the future pick, but I start by asking for Okur, the 6th, the swap, and Hayward/future pick).

I'd like to have a higher pick than 6 though. Irving would be a nice addition, but I'm not trying to predict who's going to win the 1st pick, so I'll stay somewhat vague about who we are drafting (I think Sullinger and Williams also have All-star potential, but maybe not as much as Irving). Let's assume that Deron keeps NJ from sliding down the standings. They're pick will be 5th-7th if they don't win one of the top 3 picks. I think Washington is going to stay around the 3rd spot, so let's assume they will have a top 3 pick (no guarantee). Our next move would be:

Trade the NJ pick andOkur and Posey

for

Rashard Lewis (here me out) and Washington's top 3 pick and the Atlanta pick (currently 20th) they own and Javale McGee or Kevin Seraphin or Trevor Booker.

This Wizards portion of this planisn't necessarily a requirement. But, I think they might believe they can attract a top FA in 2012 with the presence of Wall. They'd still be getting a top 10 pick (the NJ via Utah pick). I don't think the 20th pick holds a ton of value to Washington and Lewis is a feaking albatross. They could negotiate which one of the 3 young players they'd want to include, but I don't think I'd settle for just moving up a couple spots and gaining the Atlanta pick for the cost of taking on Lewis's $4.4mil. more than Okur/Posey's 2011 money and Rashard's ridiculous $23.8mil. in 2012. But for a nice young PF or center,the 20th pick and moving up from the 6th-ish pick to the 3rd-ishpick might be worth the pain of paying Lewis or buying him out. Keep in mind. This over-ardching philosphy is to stock up on young players and picks and not worry about free agents for a couple years.

So, 2011 would like this:

Lewis-$22.1mil.

2011 top 3 pick-$4.1mil.

Rush-$3mil. (definately looking to move him)

D.Jones-$2.7mil. (might look to move him for a pick also)

George-$2.4mil.

Hans-$2.1mil.

Hibbert-$2.6mil.

13th pick-$1.9mil.

Collison-$1.5mil.

20th pick-$1.4mil.

Stephenson-$.8

Price-$.8

That's 12 players for $41.3mil. All under 25 and all talented (except Lewis). Having Lewis would suck, but there is (assuming it remains the same) a luxury tax for being under the minimum and he comes off the books in 2012 when we'd have a better idea where we needed to supplement our youth with a free agent. We'd even still have enough room to take on another bad contract and some more picks...if we wanted to.

Baring any quantum leaps by any of our young guys, that seems like a 20-25 win team that would probably get us a top 5 pick in the 2012 draft also. We might be able to move Lewis in his final year (probably not) or buy him out and save a million there. We'd probably end up with another top mid-lotto pick in 2013 as well (or have the youngest, most talented team in the playoffs) and then we should have a completely stacked team. We'd have to worry about resigning Hans in 2013, we'd have to re-sign George in 2014, but we'd have tons of cheap young guys for a couple years. And then there's always the option of upgrading with vets by trading away some of our own young assets when our roster shakes out.

Maybe it's far fetched. It wouldn't be fool proof by any stretch. Just an example of the kind of stuff I'd like to see.

Keeping Granger, using our own mid-round picks and cap space wisely is also a pretty square option.

I'm so glad to be out of the woods of the JO/Artest/S-Jax/Tins era and the ensuing Golden State trade and actually see options and light at the end of the tunnel.

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Funny

I actually was pondering the very same trade (minus the Washington part) earlier this week and considered making a fanpost, I just thought it was too early to start talking about it. I’ve finally decided the only guy I really like at the top of this draft (for us) is Derrick Williams. He’s like a bigger Carmelo who isn’t quite the all-around scorer (but seems to be a better post player on both ends). So he’d be like a 3/4 hybrid, which would be nice rotationally working with Tyler (who’s a bit small for a 4) and George (whose a bit big for a 2). It would fill several needs, especially considering his jumper is pretty reliable.

So I was thinking that if the Jazz somehow won a top 3 pick with NJ’s pick, they’d have their choice between Williams, Irving, Kanter, Sullinger, Barnes or Perry Jones. Williams or Barnes makes the most sense for them, but neither would really put them right back into the 50-win range like Granger would. So the trade I wanted was almost identical to yours: Granger, Rush and our 15th for Williams (picked 1-3), Okur, Raja Bell and Heyward. They don’t get any worse in the post because Okur is obsolete for them (assuming they’re still fine with Jefferson playing 5), they get rid of Bell’s final two years and they assure themselves a pretty dominant scoring trio of Harris/Granger/Jefferson, all at the cost of swapping down 12-14 picks and giving up on Heyward too early. We then, with Williams, wouldn’t have to do anything else trade-wise to acquire a better prospect; Williams is every bit as good as any other top 5 pick whose come out recently barring the obvious John Wall/Kevin Durant/Blake Griffin types.

I don’t like the idea of taking on another atrocious contract. If I’m getting rid of Granger for picks, prospects and/or future cap space, I want to have that money to spend as soon as next summer when Okur comes off the books, not down the road when Lewis does. I like the idea of having the money in the summer of ‘12 to throw huge contract offers to Eric Gordon, Russell Westbrook (even though he won’t sign), JaVale McGee, Kevin Love or Andrew Bynum and force someone to spend big to match or beat our offer. Then I’d still want to have enough money to offer a fair deal to one from the Coutney Lee, Brandon Bass, Nicolas Batum, Ian Mahinmi crowd. Whoever we ended up with after that summer would determine whether we match offers for Hibbert, and would leave us with a core good enough (provided everyone continues developing and we have a good coach) to compete for years and years, without having to rely on a #1 pick in 2012 (though we will probably be a lottery team).

So to me, if I’m trading Granger and leaving the Washington trade out (and assuming Utah has a high enough draft pick to take Williams) ideally we would walk into next season with:

Collison/George/Williams/Hansbrough/Hibbert

Add one star from the class of 2012 to that group and one role player and I think by 2013-14 we’re a 45-50 win team…assuming Williams is as good as I think he is.

"You're hitting the wrong person. Don't you know you're hitting Ron Artest?"

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by LukeNukem on Mar 17, 2011 7:49 AM EDT reply actions

I like Williams.

Amongst the top picks, though, he wouldn’t be my favorite. I have the players ranked as follows:
1. Kyrie Irving
2. Harrison Barnes
3. Derrick Williams
4. Jarred Sullinger
5. Enes Kanter
6. Perry Jones
I feel (hope for the sake of my bracket) that Kryie Irving is going to assert himself as the #1 pick during the tournament. I think Harrison Barnes is a sure thing, maybe not a star, but at least a player on the level of Danny Granger/Joe Johnson. Williams is just to productive to ignore. I do have concerns in regards to his defense at the next level, more so at the 3 than the 4 though. Sullinger just makes me think of Jefferson. Kanter is a wild-card given his lack of eligibility this season, but he could well be the best big man in this draft. Perry Jones… he has all the physical talents you could want, but how many guys can we say that about. He has potential and is crazy athletic. I expect him to be a disappointment personally.

With all that said, I wouldn’t be against your trade by any means. I would especially like drowning opposing teams in a painfully large contract. Would miss Granger, but I feel George is gonna be Star level talent. Williams wouldn’t be my first choice, but I’d be fine with him….. I would like to get Kenneth Faried late in the draft, all time leading rebounder in college (passing Tim Duncan by a significant amount). That doesn’t happen by accident and I would expect him to continue that in the NBA. His size is somewhat concerning, but I think he won’t have any problem adding some more weight, so it should be fine.

Wow, I really got off-topic in a way.

by infinityzero.systemerror on Mar 17, 2011 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions

Kenneth Faried would be a great pickup. Don’t know much about Derrick Williams though. Sullinger kinda reminds me of Carlos Boozer. Not sure he has the post up game, but I think he has some value. I think Kyrie Irving is the only sure thing in your top 6. I’m also think Terrance Jones could be a special player. You can’t ignore the kind of numbers he’s putting up on a good team.

I do agree that Perry Jones has bust written all over him. He hasn’t really gotten better throughout the season, so he really should stay in collage at least another year.

Honestly, the top picks scare me, cause you are spending a high pick on guys that might not amount to much. I’d much rather trade back and pick up a guy like Faried and maybe even Jujuan Johnson. There is some good value in the later picks, including the Morris twins, Jeremy Tyler (playing overseas & producing) & Keith Benson (projected early 2nd).

by Sparhawk on Mar 17, 2011 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions

Perry Jones is a bust...

…so far. He really looks like another Anthony Randolph, Marvin Williams, Brandon Wright type in my mind. Tweener forward in a bad way. He’s definately got the skills. To be able to move and handle the ball like that at his size, at his age is really impresive, but I question his work ethic and really see no understanding of the game.

peac.e

by trucutter on Mar 17, 2011 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Obviously Irving is the best player in this draft

Or was. I need to see him actually play some meaningful college basketball. I’d take him #1, based on high school, in a heartbeat.

"You're hitting the wrong person. Don't you know you're hitting Ron Artest?"

Come visit The Fantasy Ninjas. We'd love to hear from you.

by LukeNukem on Mar 17, 2011 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions

If this deal was in anyway actually being considered

…which it probably isn’t. I wouldn’t include our 15th pick at all if the NJ pick isn’t one of the top 3. I really believe the top 3 in this draft (Irving, Williams, and Sullinger) are all pretty safe bets. Without seeing Irving play much, I can only believe the experts in the fact that he’s a legit #1 pick on talent. But, Williams and Sullinger just seem like they would be ok consolation prize types in most drafts, this one included. I actually like alot of players in the 10-14 range of this draft.

peac.e

by trucutter on Mar 17, 2011 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions

I would love to see Derrick Willams in a Pacers uniform.

by gut19 on Mar 17, 2011 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Let's just take the Jimmer!

by PIERREismyHOMEBOY on Mar 17, 2011 9:39 AM EDT reply actions

still need a 4

or a 5. We need someone underneath that is an athletic defender who will rebound and block shots and make people think before coming in the lane.

by dbcb on Mar 17, 2011 10:23 AM EDT reply actions

None of the trades mentioned above are appealing...

The Pacers should target David West, Nene, K-Mart or Tyson Chandler in the FA market.

Unfortunately, the Pacers will need to overpay to lock up one of these players because Indy is not a lucrative destination.

Trading Danny for a picks package is not the way to go.

by Keauhou on Mar 18, 2011 12:20 AM EDT reply actions

But overpaying for a slight upgrade at 4 or 5 is clearly the turning point.

…from 35 wins to 40 win seasons.

Happy days are here again.

YEAH!!!

peac.e

by trucutter on Mar 18, 2011 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree...the risk to signing these players of course, is the injuries...

but that is a risk you have to take,
With picks, if your pick isn’t a bust (Thabeet) you usually have to wait three years, and even then you might not know if your pick is a keeper (Hibbert). With the veterans, you know what you’re getting.

by Keauhou on Mar 18, 2011 3:50 PM EDT reply actions

True. I'm really waivering on this.

I was like 60/40 trade Granger for draft picks and do a real bottom up rebuild. But, I’m really coming around to keeping Danny and just trying to build a good team in the near future rather than trying to build a great team in the distant future. I’d say I’m like 55/45 now.

Even though I think Tyson Chandler would be probably the best free agent option if Tyler can keep up his hot mid-range shooting and improved decision making (his decisions look much better when they result in a made 18 footer instead of a long brick). I think 28 minutes out of Chandler and 28 out of Hibbert, with them playing 8-12 minutes together on the court in some games where the matchup dictates would make us a really tough team up front.

We could add a decent combo gaurd through the draft (or free agency) that could spell Collison and George. I think we could win 50 games if guys keep improving, people keep moving on offense, and we have a good coach that can ensure the effort remains high.

We’d need to keep McRoberts or find a similar replacement somewhere, but I think we can continue to improve.

Still I would love to see a really grass roots rebuild from the draft. Especially if we could get a top 3 pick. When you don’t take a chance on some really raw player, that high of a pick in the one-and-done era tends to pan out. But, all the young players that we have are pretty much playing at or near the ceiling I thought they could reach and since their still young and still making some mistakes, I think most of them could surpase my original expectations. I hate being negative, but I love my players proving me wrong.

peac.e

by trucutter on Mar 19, 2011 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions