After the Mayo trade thankfully fell through, I thought it worth while to ask the question. Even though we are months away from the 2011 summer signing period...and maybe it won't even happen, I thought I would pose this question to the fans. What's should the ceiling be to resign McRoberts in the offseason?
We'll have to look at this in a vacuum. But, I'm going to make the following assumptions for this argument and assume that any changes to these assumptions would augment his value.
Assumption #1: We won't/can't (wisely) use all of our cap space next season on players not named Josh McRoberts
Assumption #2: We won't immediately find a well priced PF that is significantly better than McRoberts (this assumption could and hopefully will be wrong)
Assumption #3: McRoberts will sign for a fair price and not try and rake us over the coals based on our attempts to trade him during a 9 win - 3 loss run that has us quickly securing our 1st playoff spot in almost half a decade.
Pros in favor of Josh:
A). I think Josh could and might be able to add some more muscle in the off-season and not sacrifice much explosiveness. He looks a bit soft, so I'd think he could add 10lbs of muscle and maybe lose 5lbs of flab and be all the better for it. It's hard to gauge others physiques and make assumptions on their ability to change. I think he added a bit of size this past summer, but it's hard to add bulk during the season, especially for such a young guy with a high metabolism.
B). Josh is a good athlete for his size. He's not great (by NBA standards...maybe by big goofy white NBA standards). Still, he's learning how to use those natural skills.
C). He's active. He's always giving max effort.
D). He's a respectable shooter. He's finally learning not to take bad 3's as much (may have something to do with the new coach).
E). He's a solid passer. He doesn't get the ball much in the flow of the offense, but when he does he can find open players.
F). All in all, he's learning his role and it is a valuable role.
G). He's a hometown kid and quickly becoming a fan favorite.
A). He's not and likely never will be a starting quality PF or C.
B). Tyler might not be either (see above) and even if he was an acceptable starter, you'd think we'd like to have more change of pace off the bench than Josh. And if Hibbert, God love him, is our starting center neither Josh nor Tyler are likely to develop into acceptable front court mates for Hibbert. Roy is a solid, but unspectacular center that needs more athleticism and someone who can consistently play effectively above the rim at PF.
C). We need role players, but we don't want to waste all our cap space or roster spots on them.
Given the above facts (I'm sure I missed some important stuff), I think I'd start the bidding for Josh at around $9mil. for 3 years and probably go no higher than $14mil. for 4 years (maybe a smidge above if we got into a mini-bidding war and were running out of better options).
Does that sound fair? Over the last 2 and 1/2 years I've fallen in love with Josh's game, but I'm not afraid to let him walk either.