2/14/11 - Pacers' Stat of the Week: Individual Improvement

Welcome to the newest installment of Stat of the Week. This feature, posted each Monday, focuses in on one statistic or number to recap and tell the story of the Pacers' performance for the previous week.

The Pacers have continued to roll under Frank Vogel. The team is now 7-1 over the past two weeks, with the only loss coming in an extremely close game in Miami. They knocked off a likely playoff team in the TrailBlazers and beat two of their competitors for the East's final playoff spot in the Bobcats and the Bucks. They now have a two game lead over Charlotte for the 8th seed in the East and John Hollinger's Playoff Odds give them a 77.9% chance of making the playoffs.

Last week we looked at which statistical categories the team had shown improvement in under Frank Vogel. This week we are going to look at some statistics for individual players to see who has improved under Vogel.

A simplified offense, a more structured rotation and new points of emphasis have created a lot of changes at the team level. How are those changes manifesting themselves statistically in individual player production? The table below shows some basic statistics for each player under Jim O'Brien and Frank Vogel.

Player

MPG

Pts/36

FGA/36

FTA/36

3PTA/36

FG%

3PT%

Reb/36

Ast/36

TO/36

Danny Granger - O'Brien

36.6

20.9

16.8

5.2

5.5

42.7%

38.8%

5.5

2.7

2.6

Danny Granger - Vogel

34.1

21.5

15.0

7.0

4.6

44.7%

42.9%

5.3

3.0

2.9

Darren Collison - O'Brien

30.2

16.3

14.0

3.5

1.9

45.2%

32.8%

3.5

5.7

2.7

Darren Collison - Vogel

32.8

16.4

12.9

3.3

3.0

47.9%

45.5%

3.7

6.6

4.0

Roy Hibbert - O'Brien

27.0

16.2

15.3

3.9

0.1

43.7%

0.0%

10.3

3.0

2.9

Roy Hibbert - Vogel

29.5

20.0

15.4

5.8

0.0

50.5%

0.0%

9.6

2.6

2.7

Mike Dunleavy - O'Brien

30.3

14.2

11.2

2.5

5.4

45.3%

39.0%

6.1

2.4

1.4

Mike Dunleavy - Vogel

24.0

13.9

8.8

2.1

5.4

53.2%

51.7%

5.8

1.3

2.3

Tyler Hansbrough - O'Brien

16.0

16.2

12.9

5.1

0.1

46.7%

0.0%

9.3

1.4

1.9

Tyler Hansbrough - Vogel

21.9

17.0

13.8

7.6

0.0

38.8%

0.0%

7.8

0.4

3.1

Paul George - O'Brien

17.3

14.9

12.0

2.5

5.1

47.7%

30.4%

6.1

1.8

1.4

Paul George - Vogel

23.5

16.5

12.4

6.1

4.6

43.1%

25.0%

6.3

1.9

1.5

Josh McRoberts - O'Brien

21.6

11.2

8.5

2.7

2.5

50.0%

37.3%

8.8

3.4

2.2

Josh McRoberts - Vogel

26.6

12.0

8.6

2.2

0.5

58.8%

33.3%

8.3

3.7

1.5

A.J. Price - O'Brien

13.2

16.4

14.1

3.8

7.2

A.J. Price - Vogel

15.3

13.6

12.4

4.1

5.6

38.1%

26.3%

7.7

3.0

3.5

Dahntay Jones - O'Brien

7.1

13.5

11.8

4.8

1.1

42.9%

0.0%

6.8

2.3

2.3

Dahntay Jones - Vogel

14.3

21.7

13.3

6.8

2.5

55.8%

50.0%

5.3

1.6

2.2

Jeff Foster - O'Brien

18.7

8.2

6.9

2.8

0.2

46.8%

0.0%

13.1

2.7

1.3

Jeff Foster - Vogel

17.3

4.4

5.7

0.8

0.0

36.4%

0.0%

14.1

1.6

0.3

Almost everyone in the rotation has increased their FG% significantly in this new simplified offense. Dahntay Jones, Josh McRoberts, Mike Dunleavy and Roy Hibbert have all been shooting better than 50.0% over the past 8 games. In addition the team's three most frequent three point shooters, Danny Granger, Darren Collison and Mike Dunleavy, have all seen a significant increase in their 3PT%. Dunleavy has shot 51.7% on three pointers since Vogel took over.

The other signifcant offensive trend is the improvement in FTAs. Danny Granger, Paul George, Tyler Hansbrough and Dahntay Jones are all getting to the line at a significantly higher rate under Frank Vogel. Attacking the basket aggressively has been a point of emphasis and it's showing up in the numbers. It's especially important because the Pacers have the 8th best FT% in the league. Over the past few years the Pacers have struggled to get to the line consistently, but those missed opportunities are being missed no more.

There have been a lot of changes in the distribution of minutes as well. You'll notice that James Posey and T.J. Ford don't appear on this list at all. This has created more minutes for A.J. Price and Tyler Hansbrough. Paul George and Dahntay Jones are also playing more minutes off the bench. This is not just a pattern of Vogel relying more on the bench, as Darren Collison and Roy Hibbert are also each playing about 3 more minutes per game than they were under Jim O'Brien.

The improvement of Roy Hibbert has gotten the most attention, but he's not the only one playing much better under Vogel. Danny Granger has increased his scoring average but is doing it with less shots attempts because he's been shooting a much better percentage. Vogel has made a point of emphasizing shot selection, particularly with Granger, and it looks like it's paying off. In addition, his 3PT attempts have decreased and his FTA have increased, a very promising trend.

It seems to me a very commonly held belief is that Granger is a very good but doesn't have what it takes to be the best player on an elite team. The refrain goes that he is better suited as the second best player on a team. When this argument is made the solution inevitably revolves around acquiring some other star player, be it Carmelo Anthony, Monta Ellis, etc. Maybe Granger didn't need another star to take pressure off of him, but rather a collection of talented teammates all playing well at the same time. It was assumed he need to be a 1b to someone else's 1a. Instead, he's been a terrific 1b because of much improved play from 2 through 10.

Statistical Query of the Week: The past three weeks we've been taking a look at when the Pacers' shots are coming in the shot clock. This week's question comes from a fanpost by Thunder Dunk:

As always, if you have a Pacers' related statistical idea you'd like me to look into, send me an email at Levy2725@gmail.com and include Indycornrows somewhere in the subject line.

Although he has shot well in losses and poorly in some wins, for the season Danny has shot .512 in the 17 wins and in the 27 losses he is shooting just .363. I guess my question is, is there another team in the league whos wins/losses are tied so closely to their one "star" player shooting?  

This is an analysis that could become very complicated, but for now I just took a quick look into it. For my data set I took the top 10 players in the league in terms of field goal attempts per game. I added Danny Granger who ranks 16th on that list. Using a value of 1 for a win and 0 for a loss I ran a correlation between each player's FG% for each game and the result for the team. The players are listed below starting with the highest correlation.

  1. Andrea Bargnani - 0.582
  2. LeBron James - 0.507
  3. Dwyane Wade - 0.404
  4. Danny Granger - 0.386
  5. Kevin Durant - 0.367
  6. Amare Stoudemire - 0.330
  7. Kobe Bryant - 0.235
  8. LaMarcus Aldridge - 0.192
  9. Monta Ellis - 0.180
  10. Carmelo Anthony - 0.160
  11. Derrick Rose - 0.033

This is a very crude analysis to examine this issue, but it gives us some idea of where Danny Granger sits in this regard. Derrick Rose's number is a little surprising but probably speaks more to the Bulls' ability to win games with defense as opposed to not needing his offense. I also found it interesting that James and Wade were both so high on this list. It seems like their numbers would be lower as the Heat could conceviably win quite a few games if either one of them was having an off night.

While it may seem the Pacers can't win without Granger having a big scoring games the effect is not quite as strong with him as it is with some other players.

 

Rebound Percentage Update:

In the first installment of Stat of the Week we discussed Rebound Percentage and identified it as a season long focus and bellwether statistic for the team. The team's percentages 52 games into the season look like this:

Offensive Rebound Percentage: 25.2% (21st in the NBA)

Defensive Rebound Percentage: 75.2% (6th in the NBA)

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Indy Cornrows

You must be a member of Indy Cornrows to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Indy Cornrows. You should read them.

Join Indy Cornrows

You must be a member of Indy Cornrows to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Indy Cornrows. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker