The Pacers' Power Forward Problem

by Ian Levy on Nov 3, 2011 5:34 AM EDT in Indiana Pacers Stats

Whenever the lockout ends, a brief and intense free agent signing period will inevitably follow. During that time the Pacers seem likely to pursue a power forward, endeavoring to upgrade what's often seen as the team's biggest hole. Fans were excited about the potential Josh McRoberts showed early, and thrilled with the development of Tyler Hansbrough late. Despite all the positive feelings, the season ended with a general sense that the young duo wasn't quite good enough.

Hansbrough and McRoberts saw the bulk of the power forward minutes, but they weren't the only contributors. According to 82games.com, the Pacers' minutes last season were distributed like this:

Tyler Hansbrough - 38%
Josh McRoberts - 33%
Danny Granger - 18%
James Posey - 8%
Jeff Foster - 1%
Paul George, Mike Dunleavy, Solomon Jones - 2%

At first glance, no one is blown away by that rotation, but the numbers show they were actually very productive. 82games.com has statistics available for each team, listing their production by position. Just using the overall metric PER, the Pacers received more production at power forward than they did from any other position last season. The 17.9 PER posted by the Pacers' power forwards was significantly above average, and two points higher than the mark put up by the team's small forwards.

By these numbers, power forward was not the biggest hole for the Pacers' last season. But how did their rotation compare to the rest of the league?

I combined the power forward production statistics for each team into a single table. The statistics are all per 48 minutes. iFG% is the percentage of shot attempts which are taken inside the paint.

Pacers_pf_medium

The Pacers' ranks by category come out like this:

FGA/48 - 14th
eFG% - 16th
FTA/48 - 5th
iFG% - 21th
Reb/48 - 16th
Ast/48 - 13th
TO/48 - 14th
Blk/48 - 16th
PF/48 - 20th
Pts/48 - 10th
PER - 10th

In general, the Pacers fell in the middle of the pack. In examining all of these statistics I'm left with two questions. Is an upgrade at power forward really the biggest need for this team? Is a significant upgrade actually available through free agency?

I think the answer to the first question lies somewhere in the murky swamp of production vs. potential. In looking at the Pacers' roster many of us apply a heavy dash of potential when assigning value. The sentiment that Paul George is the Pacers' shooting guard of the future is prevalent. This rests on the assumption that some point in the future, hopefully soon, he will make a rapid ascent towards the ceiling of his potential. We hold the same hope for Roy Hibbert and Darren Collison. But the fact remains that all three offered disappointing production in a variety of areas last season. Power forward only appears as a weak spot on the roster when you project out five years in the future, using a hybrid of fantasy and reality to guess at each player's production. The ceilings of Hansbrough and McRoberts seem lower than that of George, Hibbert or Collison and that's why that hole seems so large. The fact is, in the near-past tense, power forward has been a position of relative strength, not weakness.

The one fact I'm omitting is that McRoberts is an unrestricted free agent, one who's resigning doesn't appear to be a huge priority. In the interests of full disclosure, I really, really hope I'm wrong about that.

Returning to the by-position stats, there are some clear positives. Although their production looked average in most categories, the Pacers did receive top ten production in FTA/48, Pts/48 and PER. A rough generalization of their weaknesses from that list (and having watched any random Pacers' game) would be that they struggle inside the paint, scoring, defending and rebounding.

With those weaknesses in mind, I find myself confused by the players most commonly mentioned as free agent targets for the Pacers, especially Carl Landry and David West. Neither is a strong rebounder. Neither is a tough post defender. Neither does much of their scoring damage in the post. In fact, both have a pick-and-pop heavy offensive game that is strongly reminiscent of Hansbrough's.

Just for fun, I took some of the free agent power forwards we've all heard mentioned as targets, and combined some of their statistics, leaving off names.

	TS%	ORB%	DRB%	Ast%	Stl%	Blk%	At Rim FG%
Player A	53.8%	3.7%	13.5%	7.2%	1.1%	1.1%	70.1%
Player B	55.5%	12.5%	32.2%	7.0%	0.9%	3.0%	67.1%
Player C	55.5%	9.3%	10.8%	5.2%	1.0%	1.2%	75.6%
Player D	60.8%	7.6%	18.8%	15.0%	1.5%	2.6%	68.8%
Player E	55.8%	7.6%	18.7%	12.7%	1.5%	2.1%	66.3%

If you're like me, Players A and C don't look particularly enticing from a statistical standpoint. If so, say goodbye to Jeff Green and Carl Landry respectively. Player B provides plenty of rebounding and shot blocking, but not much else. I'll point out that this was a contract year for him, and his rebounding numbers this past season were significantly higher than in any of his previous five NBA seasons. If that and his limited offense are enough to scare you off, than you can say goodbye to Kris Humphries. Which leaves us with Players D and E. Player D is a little more efficient scoring, including at the rim. He also provides slightly more in the passing and shot blocking departments. Player E is David West. Player D is Josh McRoberts.

I'm sorry. I know including McRoberts was a dirty trick, and I definitely cherry-picked the stats. McRoberts is much more turnover-prone than West and provided his efficient scoring with a much lower Usage Rate. Those admissions notwithstanding, I'm still skeptical about West. Setting aside all the issues of age, injury and cost he doesn't seem to address the team's most glaring needs at this position. He is a capable scorer, but gets his buckets in very specific ways that don't seem like they would offer the Pacers the option to create a fundamentally different or more effective offense.

My frustration with the whole enterprise comes down to this - George, Hibbert, and Collison all appear to have high ceilings so the team is willing to wait and be patient with them, allowing them to progress organically, hopefully to help them reach their high potential. Why can't we take the same route with Hansbrough and McRoberts? Admittedly they have distinct limitations, but they are already as productive as roughly half the power forward combos in the league. Why would the team choose to spend their precious dollars on someone who doesn't provide a significant upgrade at a position of relative strength, when other holes remain unfilled?

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Comments

I don't find it surprising that Landry and Green are the least interesting statistically.

I’ve made no secret of it, I don’t like them. I don’t know if it speaks more for McRoberts or less for West that their respective stats are very similar. I would trend towards it being an endorsement of Josh. I shall maintain that McBob is a better starter than Hansbrough and would like to see him resigned. His abilities are very interesting and he appears to have more potential than other players, in my mind.

#BringtheMcBobBack

"A champion is someone who gets up when he can't."
- Jack Dempsey

by infinityzero.systemerror on Nov 3, 2011 6:13 AM EDT reply actions

The one area that isn't in those free agent comparison stats is the nature of their offense

As I said McRoberts is more of a supporting player on offense, West can be more of a central piece. The thing is West’s current game seems very close to Hansbrough’s ideal development. If we are committed to looking at players as what they could be, I don’t think West is a vast improvement over Hansbrough, certainly not enough to justify how much more he’ll cost. You also end up with duplication. West may be the best of the three right now, but I like the combo of Hansbrough and McRoberts over the combo of Hansbrough and West.

There are really only two plays: Romeo and Juliet, and put the darn ball in the basket. ~Abe Lemons
Find me at IndyCornrows, Hickory-High and on Twitter

by Ian Levy on Nov 3, 2011 6:30 AM EDT up reply actions

West excelled under a offense containing CP3

needless to say, CP3 makes DWest look that much better with all those open elbow and baseline jumpers that he excels at. I like Darren a lot, but he’s no Chris Paul.
Ian, just on a side note, I think the Pacers should consider giving you a talent evaluation position in the front office, anyone that just saw moneyball would logically endorse you. : )

by latrell spreewel on Nov 3, 2011 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions

That's very kind of you to say

I would hope and expect that the front office has people a lot smarter than me judging talent. That’s why I blog for a salary of $0, while they make a living at it.

There are really only two plays: Romeo and Juliet, and put the darn ball in the basket. ~Abe Lemons
Find me at IndyCornrows, Hickory-High and on Twitter

by Ian Levy on Nov 3, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions

you might be giving them too much credit, most of them are statistician like yourself

still it would be kind of cool to have someone from IC infiltrate into a Pacers front office position.

by latrell spreewel on Nov 3, 2011 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks again, but even the statistician label is a small inflation.

I actually teach first grade. My stats knowledge is all self-taught and pretty rudimentary compared to those pretty boy math majors.

If the Pacers were hiring from the blogosphere I think Tom would certainly deserve a interview, especially in the media department.

There are really only two plays: Romeo and Juliet, and put the darn ball in the basket. ~Abe Lemons
Find me at IndyCornrows, Hickory-High and on Twitter

by Ian Levy on Nov 3, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

The entire IC managment and editor corp should be hired!!!

that be pretty awesome for all of us here. :D

by latrell spreewel on Nov 3, 2011 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Basketball Network

Check it out www.itsmyplay.com. You can create your sports profile and promote your self, your team or your organization.
It is the newest website specialized for basketball global market and it’s like linkedin, free.

by BasketballWizz on Nov 8, 2011 6:13 AM EST up reply actions

Out of curiosity...

Have you plugged in Nene for comparrisons sake? Would you find him as a significant upgrade over McRonerts? It would seem on the surface he would add value, but may not be great enough for the money he’s going to be asking for…

"My game’s like the Pythagorean Theorem. It ain’t got no answer." - Shaq

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by bleedinblueandgold on Nov 3, 2011 7:32 AM EDT reply actions

This came up in some power forward discussion awhile ago. I’m of the mind that Nene is not a power forward, and can’t really be expected to play power forward for any significant stretch. It’s been 4 years I believe since he has played any power forward minutes for the Nuggets. I think his numbers would look very favorable, and if I have the chance later I’ll plug them in. Not sure about the cost/benefit ratio.

There are really only two plays: Romeo and Juliet, and put the darn ball in the basket. ~Abe Lemons
Find me at IndyCornrows, Hickory-High and on Twitter

by Ian Levy on Nov 3, 2011 7:56 AM EDT reply actions

Wouldn't think position would limit his productiveness

but I have nothing to back that statement up. I think he would be a great fit to start at PF with Hans as the 6th man off the bench for Hibbert. Nene could then slide back to his more comfortable position at the 5. I believe his versatility is his biggest asset. He is able to do a lot of things that no man his size should be able to do.

"My game’s like the Pythagorean Theorem. It ain’t got no answer." - Shaq

Follow me on Twitter @JWM_IndySports

Check out my articles at www.kentsterling.com.

by bleedinblueandgold on Nov 3, 2011 8:03 AM EDT up reply actions

yeah, I'm really torn between money and production

I think Nene would be nice fit next to Hibbert, I think he has some defensive potential with good offensive skills. Problem is of course, money. Just look at Josh Mcroberts stats and Nene’s stats, on a 36 min per, Nene is better than Josh on most categories accept assist and blocks. But its not like Nene dominated Josh, although given their respective contracts, Nene technically should have produce much better. So taking in both of their estimated payday and their current development in their career, if I was GM, I would give a slight nod to Josh.

by latrell spreewel on Nov 3, 2011 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions

absolutely loving the pro McRoberts support

I always thought the 4 spot wasn’t as bad last year as many of the so called experts who had predicted Josh Mcroberts to be the worst starting power forward in the NBA. People forgot that Josh was basically given an opportunity for the first time last year in his career, and I though he played up to if not exceeded expectation. Like everything that was said in the post, Josh still has a lot of areas where he should be expected to improve on, and assuming the Pacers resign him, I can’t see why the Pacers wouldn’t receive a improved production at the 4 spot. Plus, we have to consider the fact that young guys won’t be playing under rookie contracts forever, and starting this year, there’s a real growing concern in retaining most of them. Josh would be one of the cheaper options in free agency with the most versatile and more importantly the most FITTING player to this current Pacers team. Seeing all that has taken place during this lockout, cost to efficiency ratio is definitely a huge factor, Hiibert and Hill are both going to hit free agency this year, with DC and Hansbrough following the year after, saving some cash to retain most of these guys must be crucially considered.

by latrell spreewel on Nov 3, 2011 8:34 AM EDT reply actions

and McRoberts is still only 24, a year younger than Hansbrough.

There are really only two plays: Romeo and Juliet, and put the darn ball in the basket. ~Abe Lemons
Find me at IndyCornrows, Hickory-High and on Twitter

by Ian Levy on Nov 3, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Thank you for this article!

Loved the article! First of all, the first half of the year (when JOB was coaching) Tyler had VERY inconsistant minutes and was given absolutely no chance to develop. But when Vogel took over everything started to change. So everyone is basically going off of 6 months of work. Give the guy a chance before you cast him aside for someone else! I guarantee that after experiencing the post-season for the first time Tyler knows exactly what he needs to work on and develop in the off season. Hasn’t he proved that before? He is a hard worker and I know he can be a great starter in this league if given an honest chance.

by QC41 on Nov 3, 2011 9:41 AM EDT reply actions

I’d be happy with bringing McRobert’s back. He’s a decent player, but could be better if he had a nasty streak in him. Dude just needs to grow some balls.

And it's now my sig
by Bronn on May 17, 2011 4:56 PM EDT

by Sparhawk on Nov 3, 2011 10:27 AM EDT reply actions

From what I see...

Kris Humphries looks more like the best pick. I know he is not the best pick offensively but he adds to the areas we most need in a power foward (rebounding, and post defense). Bird and many Pacer fans want someone who is like Dale Davis then they need not look further than Hump. He is young enough to fit in with our young group but has been in the NBA long enough to be a veteran as well. He’s friends with Danny as well. He brings a different look than Hansborough and Josh. He will also be less expensive where it is possible to get back Jeff and Josh.

by HoosierGM on Nov 3, 2011 11:34 AM EDT reply actions

My biggest concern with Humphries is what an outlier his performance last season was.

His career DRB% is 24.7%, very good but quite a bit lower than the 32.7% he put up last season.

There are really only two plays: Romeo and Juliet, and put the darn ball in the basket. ~Abe Lemons
Find me at IndyCornrows, Hickory-High and on Twitter

by Ian Levy on Nov 3, 2011 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Maybe he’ll keep playing well to try and win Kim back or the divorce may make him too depressed to play hard. What a joke

by pendulum55 on Nov 3, 2011 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree with both sides.

And it's now my sig
by Bronn on May 17, 2011 4:56 PM EDT

by Sparhawk on Nov 3, 2011 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Good stuff, Ian, as always

I have no shame in admitting I’d like to see David West in a Pacers’ uniform. I like the fact that he’d be a legitimate and consistent second scoring option, something this team currently lacks. I like the fact that his offense is efficient (something Hansbrough and Hibbert can only dream about right now). Maybe even more than his offensive arsenal, I like the fact that he’s a veteran with leadership qualities (something stats can’t measure) and big-game playoff experience, which is something this team has desperately been seeking for years. Sure, his defense isn’t elite, nor is he an elite rebounder; however, we saw large team-wide improvement in both of these areas when Vogel took over, and that was with comparable defensive/rebounding options in Hansbrough and McBob. I don’t see a lot of negative in bringing in West who is comparable defensively and rebounding-wise to our current options, yet he brings a whole new element regarding offensive impact/efficiency along with a number of veteran intangibles that this team desperately needs.

Do I want West for 10-15 million a year?. Absolutely not. How about 7-9 million? That’d be awfully hard to pass up. I’d be okay with staying status quo, too. I’d have no problem watching Hans and McBob develop another year. My only concern with that is getting stuck in a neverending game of “wait and see.” In my view, Indy isn’t going to be a player for FAs Dwight, Deron, or CP3 in 2012. They’re most likely not going to outbid teams for restricted FAs like Eric Gordon. So let’s wait then until 2013 then, right? Well, maybe there are better FA options then, but you’re asking your fans to wait yet another year when you’ve already been asking them to wait for more than half a decade. At what point do you come to grips with the fact that the perfect option probably isn’t ever going to be available and realize a less-than-perfect option may be your best and most realistic chance to continue to make this franchise relevant and competitive?

by Glenn A. on Nov 3, 2011 1:17 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks Glenn

You’re right. There’s probably more positives to West than what I talked about here. The discussion has continued to progress on twitter and I think I’ve codified my point a little more succinctly. The most important thing this off-season is that the Pacers’ get better. I’m mostly bothered by the idea I feel like I keep hearing, which is that this has to happen at power forward.

There are really only two plays: Romeo and Juliet, and put the darn ball in the basket. ~Abe Lemons
Find me at IndyCornrows, Hickory-High and on Twitter

by Ian Levy on Nov 3, 2011 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions

The Pacers should be looking to improve everywhere

Improvement first, positional concerns second. I’ll also add that I think their best chance for a long-term upgrade is through the draft not free agency this year. Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond, Terrence Jones, Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones, John Henson, Thomas Robinson, Patric Young, Tyler Zeller, Mason Plumlee, Festus Ezeli and Mouphtaou Yarou are all projected first rounders. This draft should be stacked with big men.

There are really only two plays: Romeo and Juliet, and put the darn ball in the basket. ~Abe Lemons
Find me at IndyCornrows, Hickory-High and on Twitter

by Ian Levy on Nov 3, 2011 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Fair point...

…but I think you’ve already alluded to the reason why other positions are not viewed as more of a “priority,” and it comes down to perceived potential. Fair or unfair, we as a fanbase for myriad different reasons see a lot more potential in other young players (Hibbert, George, Collison) than we see in Hansbrough and McBob. Part of that deals with the past (Collison’s 19 and 9 stat line in NO), part of it deals with position (Hibbert plays a tough position to fill), and part of it deals simply with measurables and glimpses (George is just a freak athlete).

by Glenn A. on Nov 3, 2011 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions

One of the things I really like about Tyler is, even though he’s not the perfect fit for the Pacers, he brings a certain drive and emotion to the game that just can’t be taught. There we’re some games last season where it looked like Josh was just lost. To me Josh has the physical tools to be a good PF, but Tyler’s heart makes up for a lot of his lack of natural talent. I don’t know if Tyler and Josh are the answers at PF, but I would like to see how they flourish under a new and improved coaching staff. The same goes for Darren Collison.

by gut19 on Nov 3, 2011 3:21 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Another option ...

I may be mistaken whether he is an unrestricted FA or not, but why is there never any mention of Glen ‘Big Baby’ Davis as an option? I know he’s probably not much of an upgrade over Tyler, but he is a very strong rebounder, a solid interior scorer, and he’s spent his first 4 years in the league backing up one of the all-time greats and going deep into the playoffs every year, winning a title along the way.
Is he not ready to step up and become a regular starter and see what he can do in 30+ mins a game. He’s always performed well as a fill-in starter for KG.
Just a thought. And I’m not 100% certain he’s unrestricted anyway, but we could always trade for him. Would be cheaper than chasing West, Nene or probably even Landry.
What say you fellow Pacer fans and Mr Levy?

by GunnyBoy77 on Nov 3, 2011 7:47 PM EDT reply actions

sorry man, his weight issue and him being undersized scares me.

by latrell spreewel on Nov 3, 2011 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions

He is 6’9" – how is that undersized for a PF?

by GunnyBoy77 on Nov 4, 2011 12:38 AM EDT up reply actions

The weight issue

I think he is reffering to his near 290lbs. I did hear he is cutting up though this off season to shed some weight

***Forever Grunge...Man!***
*I'm Alive* Eddie Veddar, Pearl Jam

by rockguyinindy on Nov 4, 2011 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions

But you are correct…we could prob get Davis pretty cheap to start at the 4 and play some 5. Resign Josh to play the 4 and 5 as well and let Tyler do his madness off the bench. Yeah, this would be as near “Blue Collar” as we had it in a long freekin time.

***Forever Grunge...Man!***
*I'm Alive* Eddie Veddar, Pearl Jam

by rockguyinindy on Nov 4, 2011 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions

The weight issue, fine, but he’s not undersized, and he’s a legit presence down low who rebounds well, and plays pretty good D. Can also step out and hit the 15 footer quite consistently. I guarantee if we don’t take a shot on him as a starter, someone else will. I’m at least intrigued to see what it would take.
Trade the Celtics McBob or Tyler. They love them some white guys more than we do. Win-win.

by GunnyBoy77 on Nov 4, 2011 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Davis is a Free Agent

No trades. Keep Josh and Tyler

***Forever Grunge...Man!***
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by rockguyinindy on Nov 4, 2011 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Same thing as my concerns with everyone else

I don’t think he’s an upgrade, nor does he fit a need. He’s not a strong rebounder. Both his ORB% and DRB% were right at the league average. Not the league average for power forwards, the league average for everyone. He has no post game, more than half of his shot attempts are mid and long range two pointers, and his TS% was under 50%.

I say you get much much more from McRoberts and West.

There are really only two plays: Romeo and Juliet, and put the darn ball in the basket. ~Abe Lemons
Find me at IndyCornrows, Hickory-High and on Twitter

by Ian Levy on Nov 4, 2011 6:30 AM EDT up reply actions

If people are worried about Hibberts mental state on the floor they would be doubled that with Davis. He not strong willed like the guy he was playing behind (Garnett).

by HoosierGM on Nov 4, 2011 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Speaking of Hansbrough not exactly being young

He turned 26 today

Sup Jello Shot?

by IndyPacers on Nov 3, 2011 11:58 PM EDT reply actions

Ian..Your Awesome

Great article buddy. Hats Off..Cheers my man. Love reading your stuff and this one nails it. One possibility that we (Pacers) could come across would be a trade for Paul Milsap which can happen with us and the Jazz or include a 3rd team. ANYWAY, what would his PER’s compare to your charts? I ALSO am torn to see the Pacers get West, but would also accept it b/c of his leadership/vetern playoff, low post and stretching the “D”. I would love to see Josh resign and perhaps start and let Tyler come off behind him and maybe get a big back up to Roy like DJ Mbenga and Foster. I figure we can still do that but if West is as healthy as he says he is he will get 30 mins easily and thus causing loss of play time /growth for Josh and Tyler.

***Forever Grunge...Man!***
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by rockguyinindy on Nov 4, 2011 12:39 AM EDT reply actions

Paul Milsap anybody???

***Forever Grunge...Man!***
*I'm Alive* Eddie Veddar, Pearl Jam

by rockguyinindy on Nov 4, 2011 12:40 AM EDT reply actions

Thanks for the positive feedback.

I like Millsap, but I’m not sure he’s realistically on the market. Especially with the Pacers’ current assets.

There are really only two plays: Romeo and Juliet, and put the darn ball in the basket. ~Abe Lemons
Find me at IndyCornrows, Hickory-High and on Twitter

by Ian Levy on Nov 4, 2011 6:32 AM EDT up reply actions

My picks at the 4 possibles

West, if we can get him w/o breaking the bank b/c of his scoring ops, leadership and playoff trenches. Same goes for Glen Davis, nothing sexy about him but he will play “D” and eat glass as well as avg 10-12pts. Josh McRoberts, sheer athletisim and some muscle weight gain should make him more of a he-man on the “D”. Paul Milsap, I have hyped on this dude for more than a yr, he’s tuff, he scores, plays “D”, eats glass as well. Not sure what the Jazz will want for him, but they have an abundance of bigs and may cut a trade. A few others out of reach would be D. Jordon as he will stay in LA w/ Blake, but he would be ideal with a D" 1st mentality like Dale Davis. Nene…forget it man, he will need 13mil + and hells no on that. No to Landry as well. Jeff Greene will STAY in Boston as well…Ainge will not let the Hoya go anywhere.

***Forever Grunge...Man!***
*I'm Alive* Eddie Veddar, Pearl Jam

by rockguyinindy on Nov 4, 2011 1:19 AM EDT reply actions