The Pacers DON'T need more scoring!!!
by latrell spreewel on Oct 18, 2011 11:58 AM EDT
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Print[From the FanPosts, latrell spreewel looks into the Pacers offensive options for the pending season. -TL]
I can't stand another minute of this lockout talk, its ridiculously depressing. On a more optimistic outlook, the lockout could be over as soon as this week, in George Cohen we trust, and if so, the Pacers need a couple of big men to fill out the roster. There are a lot of rumors about David West being the most prominent target out there for the Pacers. Everyone already knows the down side and huge risk in giving a lengthy contact to West, but the positive side being that David West will contribute as an offensive player. But the question is do we need more offense? Not really.
The Pacers last year were in truly in their transitional year. It was the year that they brought in a new point gurad, a new coaching staff and finally cracked the playoff drought. The power forward spot was a tandem rotation of Mcroberts and Hansbrough, combine those two used up roughly around 17.2% of all the team field goal attempts, that's less than 1/5 of all the shots of the entire team. Now the key subtraction this year would be Mike Dunleavy since he was the starting sg for the majority of the time until the end of the season where PG took over. If Paul George is to ever succeed and develop, he has to get more touches.
Another player who needs more touches is Roy Hibbert, this is the Final year for Hibbert to show whether he is a household name or just another average paint filler. Hibbert is a skilled center and not an athletic big like Howard or Bynum, so naturally it will take longer for him to develop. Just look at a guy like Chris Kaman, another skilled center who's career path is a lot like Roy's first three years. Don't forget Roy only average 27.7 mins last season with exactly 11 fga per game, there is no reason with his MMA training last season and power training this summer why Hibbert should not get anything less than 32 mins this season or less than 14fga this season.
Danny and Darren's shot attempts should remain relatively the same, Danny will still be the main focus when he's on the floor but he now has a wingman who takes his job seriously with tremendeous work ethics and has HUGE Ambitions for himself in PG and not a pot smoking bum like Brandon Rush. Darren Collison's scoring per was not his problem last year, it was his play making abilities that were disppointing, but with Darren's quickness and his rookie resume, we should expect a much more lethal and precise Darren Collison.
The bench will also be vastly different, James posey, A.J. Price and T.J. ford took a lot of shots last season, but luckily with Vogel at the helm and T.J's expiring contract, those players will either be gone or have much reduced roles on the bench. I would expect however that the emergence of George Hill and Lance will take away nearly all of those shots and then some from Brandon Rush. The remaining touches will go to Dahntay and Jeff Foster. Now the question is how many shots is there left to go around for Hansbrough and the other power forwar rotation.
Here's my expected shot distribution table for next season Assuming Tyler will get his fair share of touches and Jeff will be back and Hill will get relative same amount of touches as he did with the Spurs.
Granger: 15.5
DC: 11.0
Hibbert: 13.5
PG: 12
Tyler: 9
Lance: 6.5
Hill: 8
Dahntay: 5
Rush: 5
price: 4
Foster: 3
Possey: 3
total: 95.5
Based on this estimate and projection, 95.5 is already 10.2 more shots attempted than last year's average. This of course is without considering the arrival of the rest of the roster. There's is no doubt that I probably over estimated the amount of shots given to certain players, but in my mind I think I was mostly fair in terms of using last year's data and taking in consideration of a player's development, style of play, potential and relation to Vogel. This leads to one conclusion, there is definitely not enough shots to go around for a player like David West who average 17 shots attempted at his peak and 15 last season. unless the pacers either turn into the Phenix suns run and gun offense, or they take the shots away from all of the following Hibbert, George, Hansbrough, Lance and GHill, there is not enough shots to go around for a power forward like David west.
Josh McRoberts is not a sexy name in terms of free agents, but he has everything the Pacers need if he can improve on certainly parts of his game. Josh is Athletic and can be a defensive presence on the weakside with a bit more experience. Josh's passing game and basketball IQ is also a huge reason. Looking at the list above, there's not all that many uber shot creators save maybe Lance Stephenson, So Josh's willingness to pass the ball and ability to move without the ball is a huge plus not to mention Mcroberts can score if push comes to shove. Given this labour dispute, Mcroberts will not be expensive at all compare to a guy like Nene or West, Josh is also very familiar with the current guys on the team. Josh fits the uber role player bill perfectly as long as he build a bit more strength and hone his rebounding skills.
Even given McRoberts, the Pacers still need another Big to back up Foster if Jeff has flare ups at time, I think a very cheap and quality defensive minded option is DJ Mbenga. Check out Mbenga's scouting report on DraftExpress from 3 years ago, http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/D.J.-Mbenga-3473/, again, not looking for offense, simple a big body that fills a role.
These two signings will give the Pacers a 14 man roster, more than enough leavinga spot open jsut in case a trade comes up to rid us of Possey. avoiding a big signing this year give the Pacers enough money down the line next year to extend the youngins down the line and allows the young players to fully develop from all the positive from last season. Making a big aquisition could be a huge step backwards.
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dude, calm down.
the shot distribution I was talking about is just the basic shot attempted stat which is available everywhere. The table that I did was just base on my own estimates based on player potential and position on the team tatum pole, I did mention it on my post. I’m not an expert statistician like Ian, I just saying there is a huge chance that a big free agency aquicition could likely hurt the development or at least take away shots from the younger players.
by latrell spreewel on Oct 18, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
OK, your own!
Posey, Rush, and Price may not even be on the team, but you listed them.
Roy did MMA training season before last and was still a pansy then. Cr@p, I’m 53 and lift 6 days a week (2 arms, 2 legs, 2 shoulders/back/chest). If Roy wants to stop being a pansy, he should pump some iron and train more and harder than what he’s ever done in the past. I think I’m in better muscular and cardio condition than most NBA players, even at my age advanced age… Roy’s one of the biggest pansies in a league full of pansies!
by FortWayneKarl on Oct 18, 2011 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
the key word is MAY
the reality is Posey, Rush and Price will all be Pacers unless a trade goes down or there is a amnesty clause, then only Posey will be gone. But either way Posey will not be jacking up shots like he did for JOB under Vogel.
Hibbert, stop calling him a Pansy, because he’s not. Have you seen him during his days in George town, this guy has asthma problems not to mention slow feet and non existent athleticism. To be where Hibbert is today from where he began in college is a testament to the work ethic of Roy, but of course he’s a panzy in your eyes because his game doesn’t jump out at you like Howard and Bynum. Hibbert will never turn into a physical specimen the likes of Howard, but he is getting to a point where he can be as good as kaman and Andrew Bogut, and on this team, that’s all you need him to be. By the way, have you checked out Hibbert’s workout this summer? please stop with all the negativity, seriously. And I myself workout routinely as well, and I can tell you working out 6 days a week is just plain stupid, you will injure yourself by draining and exhausting all of your muscle groups. When you work out, a lot of muscles are damaged, and the body needs time to recover, going 6 days a week even if it is different muscle groups is putting your body in A LOT of stress, and at some point, it’s actually detrimental. Plus, we’re talking about basketball players and a fitness center not a body builder like Ben Wallace.
by latrell spreewel on Oct 18, 2011 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
My problem w/ Roy is the weakness of his mind, not his body!
If he were tougher mentally, the rest would follow. Kareem was far weaker than Roy, but he had the mental toughness to build himself up. Last summer Walton was harping on Roy that he’s won the Gene Pool Lottery, and he has… Now he needs to put in some (more) work.
Price, I believe is not guaranteed and will likely be out due to poor performance last year. He’d be #4 on the depth chart behind Collison, Hill, and Stephenson.
Posey, will be the first out the door with the almost certain “out” the owners’ will negotiate to get to a lower cap.
Rush… The Pacers will likely do something involving a trade or a sign and trade, given all their cap space. Rush is the most likely garbage to be thrown out, especially to make room for Hill and George.
As far as you giving me training advice, no thanks… I’ve been doing this for over 40 years now and have more than earned the right to scoff at the relatively poor fitness level of NBA basketball players and many “tough guys” half my age!!!
by FortWayneKarl on Oct 18, 2011 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, i'm sure you are more fit than NBA players
we get it. you like to lift and work out a lot. but quit trying to act like you’re some arnold schwarzenegger fitness guru. you make fun of “tough guys” yet you’re acting just like those guys you deride. drop the macho man marine drill sergeant act. real tough guys don’t talk about how strong or tough they are.
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by wonillionaire on Oct 18, 2011 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I do agree that offense shouldn’t be a problem. I think the problem will be post-defense, particularly from the PF-C spot.
And it's now my sig
by Bronn on May 17, 2011 4:56 PM EDT
yes, defense is the identity of Vogel's team
problem is, the talent pool for a defensive power forward who is young, cheap and fits our need is so shallow, that I think Josh Mcroberts might be the best bang for buck option there is.
by latrell spreewel on Oct 18, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Dale Davis
We need a Dale Davis type player. 6’ 11" 260 pounds and just a defender and rebounder. that is the only part this team is missing IMO. Josh McRoberts is a good player who has improved every year in the nba. Tyler is going to be a good player. We are young and good. Dale Davis is what we need.
problem is, every team wants a Dale davis
and those types of players are far and few in between. I see a few players similar to Dale’s game and build, Ibaka, DeAndre and Thompson to name a few, but I don’t realistically see any of them coming to the Pacers soon, thompson could happen, but he’s not a game changer or as physically imposing as a Dale Davis. With JMac, there’s a lot of upside still there that he can still grow into. The last I’ve heard, some one mentioned on IC that Josh has been bulking up over the summer. Other than last season, Mcroberts never really got a chance to play, so giving him more time gives him more experience on the low block learning how to better position himself for rebounds, box outs and defense will make him that much better. McRoberts already has all the tools to be a above average to very good defensive player, and remember he was the part of the Pacers’ best defensive unit by statistics, so he must be doing something right.
by latrell spreewel on Oct 18, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
another scorer
isn’t a bad thing. I wouldn’t mind having another person who can get us thru the dry spells where it seems like no one is able to make a basket for their life. Plus Bird is looking to make a deep team…One that functions like Dallas did last yr. You had bench players that can come on in the starters spot and the quality of play doesn’t diminish. Hard to do with our small market but we have some money and its time to put a product on the court that we can get behind.
I’m not sure if the PF position can be solved through this years free agency or not. I think they should try to strengthen their front court via trade. Maybe try to pry Jason Thompson from the Kings now that they are pretty deep at that position. I would like to see Indiana make a run at Shane Battier though, I believe he would add depth and leadership to the team. Not to mention a good mentor for Paul George.
by gut19 on Oct 18, 2011 4:32 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Bring back McBobs!
I love the versatility Josh brings to the starting lineup. While Tyler had a couple good games vs. the Bulls, I still thought that Josh should’ve been starting b/c of his D, passing, and fit with the others. His D can extend to the arc, allowing Roy to stay at the rim. Offensively, his J can stretch the D while he can also crash the boards. It’s a big risk, but I’d like to see Roy and Darren in the PNP game and allow Josh to catch lobs at the rim, a la Tyson Chandler; not every offensive possession, but at least a few times to give Danny a few plays off and just let him and Paul catch and shoot. Darren had the most success in the PNR/P offense, where the majority of his assists came while in New Orleans. Roy has a good J and is not a full-time, back-to-the-basket big; he needs to be different opportunities to take complete advantage of his skills, and like a Kaman, an Ilgauskas, or Horford, Roy is good at a few things, but a master of none.
Also, Roy and Josh are such good passers, when George Hill subs for Darren, I’d like to see a little Princeton O implemented, again, taking pressure off Danny to create off the dribble, spacing the floor, and just have something different to improve our sometimes stagnant offense.
We may need another PF in the future, but right now, unless something comes along that just wows the front office, we should re-sign Josh to a modest contract and give him a chance.
I think this argument depends entirely on development. The team as it was at the end of last season certainly needs more scoring. Obviously we added George Hill in an attempt to address this problem, but even he comes with the promise of becoming a better player than he already is. The reason it’s painful to lessen any of our players shot attempts is that they are all so young and we believe that with experience they will develop into something more valuable. Moreover, we don’t want to stunt their growth by adding a veteran. But the fact of the matter is, the current talent level of many of our promising young studs, their scoring ability in particular, is below par. If we want to to compete with the top teams, we DEFINITELY need more scoring. Luckily the free agent class is weak this year and shouldn’t compel us to make an upgrade. This makes resigning McBob and watching what we have grow a smart option. Nevertheless, scoring is an issue and if it becomes clear that player development isn’t going to fill that void, a move needs to be made.
I think you're both right and wrong
No, this team doesn’t necessarily need more points per se, but this team desperately needs more EFFICIENT scoring. The Pacers don’t have one player currently under contract who shot better than 46.7% (Dahntay Jones) from the field. That’s just a sorry statistic considering Hibbert and Hansbrough are two frontcourt players who are viewed as having a lot of potential and who should be getting most of their shots close to the basket. That has to change. That’s why I like David West. He can score close to the hoop, he can employ a mid-range game, he can take some pressure off of Granger, Hibbert and Hansbrough (let Hans come off the bench and go wild), and he’s got some leadership intangibles that no one else on the team can provide.
you are absolutely right about the team fg efficiency
however, one guy can not fix the efficiency of the rest of the team even if he is super efficient himself. To improve the efficiency of the entire team, the team has to execute better, which leads to better shots. On individual basis, everyone have to work on their games over the summer, refining their game, but two guys almost absolutely have to step up to shoulder the burden. Lance and Darren Collison, these two guys are the best at creating shots either for themselves and others, it is imperative that these two guys become floor generals when they are at point. While its nice to have Hibbert, McRoberts and Dunleavy be fascilitators, they do not have the creative abilities of Collison and Lance to consistantly driving and dishing for easy hoops. This is another reason why I don’t really like D west, he’s a black hole, he’s not going to fascilitate the offense like a Josh Mcroberts.
by latrell spreewel on Oct 18, 2011 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Let me start by saying I have no problem entering the season with the players from last year...
Well, for the most part. However, I wouldn’t have any problem with signing West or Nene. Landry would really bother me though, he wouldn’t be worth the money. Nene and West would make this team better, they are talented and would bring a variety of skills to the table that this team has lacked at times.
West would be a reliable scorer, a skilled passer for his position, and adequate enough at the other skills to be a valuable asset. He would provide something that would have won us a number of games, perhaps even propel us to victory over the Bulls in the playoffs. Tyler missed a lot of shots in those games.
Nene would be a post presence that has been missing probably since JO was last relevant. He would provide invaluable defense, rebounding, and an efficient post game. Something, that was sorely lacking throughout the season and especially in the playoffs. When the Bulls simply dominated the paint.
McRoberts would be acceptable as well. He is still young and developing. McBob may never be a huge force in the paint, but I believe he can be a starter in this league. He is very skilled at passing the ball, he makes good decisions, adequate at rebounding/defense, and his potential make him a very enticing product. He may be the best choice simply because he’ll be the cheapest, he has the most familiarity with the team, and his potential.
I like all 3 and would be relatively happy with either player within certain financial constraints.
"A champion is someone who gets up when he can't."
- Jack Dempsey
by infinityzero.systemerror on Oct 19, 2011 7:03 AM EDT reply actions
I wouldn’t mind Nene, as long as we don’t over pay. I’ve no interest in West.
And it's now my sig
by Bronn on May 17, 2011 4:56 PM EDT
We'd have to overpay to get Nene, but that'd be OK because he should help the team so much.
by FortWayneKarl on Oct 19, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
DON'T WASTE MONEY ON THIS SEASONS FREE AGENT CLASS
It is by far the worst in NBA history. Don’t waste money on old ass players almost past their prime like David West, just wait till next season and sign guys to one year contracts. Now if David West will sign a one year deal then I’m all for him to be a Pacer.
by PatsR18andDONEwithoutCHEATING on Oct 19, 2011 11:49 AM EDT reply actions
David West for one year - you must be on drugs!
Get real.
by FortWayneKarl on Oct 19, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah I know chances of it happening are slim to none
And that’s why as far as I’m concerned Jersey can have him.
by PatsR18andDONEwithoutCHEATING on Oct 19, 2011 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Mike Donelavy isn't a key subtraction either
He wasn’t worth 2 candy bars and a coke in the NBA finals last season only averaging 5 ppg and what 2 RPG per game. I don’t see why everyone thinks losing this guy is going to hurt the Pacers he’s a third string G & F in their lineup. I don’t see how Doneleaving is any more valuable to the team then TJ Ford or Solomon Jones. Now losing Jeff Foster or possibly McRob on the other hand would be a key subtraction for the Pacers.
by PatsR18andDONEwithoutCHEATING on Oct 19, 2011 11:53 AM EDT reply actions
You actually think Mike Doneleaving was worth a damn in the finals based on his numbers?
The Pacers don’t need him their not going to offer him an extension he won’t hurt them when he leaves. Now I will give credit where credit is due according to the Stats Mike I’m Doneleaving the Pacers FOR GOOD did play better then Brandon Rush even though Rush started over him.
by PatsR18andDONEwithoutCHEATING on Oct 19, 2011 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh wait sorry my bad correction
In the NBA PLAYOFFS Mike I’m Doneleaving the Pacers for good wasn’t worth a damn sorry about the typo. The Pacers don’t need him their not going to offer him an extension he won’t hurt them when he leaves. Now I will give credit where credit is due according to the stats Mike I’m Doneleaving the Pacers FOR GOOD did play better then Brandon Rush in the playoffs even though Rush started over him.
by PatsR18andDONEwithoutCHEATING on Oct 19, 2011 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Don’t forget Roy only average 27.7 mins last season with exactly 11 fga per game, there is no reason with his MMA training last season and power training this summer why Hibbert should not get anything less than 32 mins this season or less than 14fga this season.
As long as he keeps in Fouls / g low, that shouldn’t be an issue. Historically that has been something he’s struggled with, and I’m not sure how good our perimeter defense is going to be with the roster flux we currently have. If it’s bad, it will expose him to more penetration and dumb fouls.
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