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How Can Danny Granger's Positional Versatility Help The Pacers?

My post yesterday about finding some ways for Troy Murphy and Roy Hibbert to work better together raised some discussion in the comments. The sticking point for many readers was my suggestion that the Pacers consider making Danny Granger their starting Power Forward and have Murphy work off the bench as the back-up Center.

I presented some statistics indicating that the Pacers were much more effective last season when Granger played Power Forward. Those positive influences were made even stronger when Granger was paired with Hibbert and Brandon Rush.

In support of this idea I compared the Pacers' Offensive/Defensive Ratings and Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rates with Granger at Power Forward to those of the Pacers as a whole. A reader wondered in particular if I could put together a comparison of those stats for when Granger played Power Forward and when he played Small Forward. I also was able to gather some of his individual statistics for each position. Finally, a reader wanted to know who was most often playing at the Center position when Granger was at Power Forward.

Statistics, graphs and analysis after the jump . . .

Star-divide

Let's begin by looking at the Offensive/Defensive Ratings and Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rates for the Pacers when Granger is at Small Forward and Power Forward. As in the last post I have included the 2009-2010 NBA League Average for comparison.

Granger_position_ratings_medium

 Granger_position_rebound_medium

The Offensive and Defensive Ratings tell bascially the same story as we found yesterday. With Granger at the Power Forward the Pacers posted a positive Overall Rating of +2.03. With Granger at the Small Forward the team had an atrocious -3.50 Overall Rating. In both cases the Pacers were above average offensively and below average defensively. Although, they were a much better defensive team with Granger at the Power Forward.

The rebounding numbers also look very similar to what we saw yesterday. With Granger at either position the Pacers were a well below average defensive rebounding squad. Unsurprisingly, they were a better rebounding team on both ends of the floor when Danny Granger was at the Small Forward. The team's poor rebounding numbers with Granger at Power Forward makes their positive Overall Rating and strong defensive performance in this scenario even more impressive.

I would have really liked to look at these same numbers for the 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 seasons, but BasketballValue.com, where I took these stats from, didn't assign positions in their five man unit statistics until this season.

The next thing I wanted to look at was Danny Granger's individual stats for his minutes at each position. Below are his numbers for the last three season at Small Forward and Power Forward. I have also included his opponent's stats(O/SF - O/PF) for his minutes at each position. All stats are per 48 minutes.

Danny_position_stats_medium

While these stats don't seem to be overly consistent from season to season, there were a few distinct patterns. While still at a rebounding disadvantage compared to his counterpart, Granger is a much better rebounder and shot-blocker from the Power Forward position. While his assists go slightly down at the Power Forward position, his turnovers go way down. He doesn't score as well at Power Forward, but his shooting percentages stay very consistent.

One of the ideas I have heard floated in several places is the idea of moving Danny Granger to Shooting Guard. I am not sure how 82games.com (where I got these stats) assigns positions, but they don't have Granger as playing even one minute at Shooting Guard over the past three seasons. Whether or not you like the idea of moving Granger to the front-court, it seems a lot more plausible then asking him to play Shooting Guard.

The final issue I wanted to look at today was the minute distribution at Center while Granger was playing Power Forward.

 Center_minutes_medium

Hibbert and Murphy split the bulk of the minutes fairly evenly, while the rest of the minutes went to Solomon Jones, Jeff Foster, Josh McRoberts and Tyler Hansbrough.

To summarize, there are obviously some advantages and disadvantages to playing Granger at Power Forward. Granger played 2,278 minutes last season, with 1,147 of them at the Power Forward position. This is essentially half of his time on the court, and maybe with some improvements in other areas, this same balance could be enough to push the Pacers towards a winning record.

The other point I would like to make is that this suggestion of playing Danny Granger at Power Forward is not necessarily a call for him to change his game. Half of his minutes last season came at this position and offensively he played those minutes very similar to the way he played at Small Forward. These positive numbers may be as much an indication of the strength of the Pacers playing a small lineup, anchored by Hibbert with the floor spread around him, as it is of any particular skill or attribute of Danny Granger's.

Maybe a simpler way to think about my suggestion is that the Pacers were much better last season when they played a small lineup, and that they need to factor this into their lineup decisions next season. The Pacers played small often last year, but usually as a reaction to the team falling behind. Perhaps the Pacers should think about making the small lineup the status quo, and use a conventional or big lineup as a reaction to game situations?

I hope these numbers helped clarify my suggestions. I would love to hear anyone's further thoughts on the matter!

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I don't have issue with Danny at the 4

in certain games. For instance against the Raps last year when he guarded Bosh, I can understand playing him at the 4. But against the likes of Stoudamire, Horford, or any other PF that carries bulk, I think his offensive game struggles. He doesn’t carry enough weight to bang with those guys and I think the physical toll they put on him down low will negatively affect him on the offensive end.

I don’t have much problem with going small every once in a while, but to keep DG at the 4 all year would be a mistake. Especially if the team trades Murph and we need a PF. We’re gonna have to piece together some guys down low in that case.

by jantz101 on Jun 30, 2010 5:34 PM EDT reply actions  

So what if we kept his minutes 50/50 SF and PF like we did this year

But for symbolic purposes made him the starter at PF. That would let Paul George have role of a starter if not the minutes. Might be really good for his confidence.

by Levy2725 on Jun 30, 2010 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

I can't argue with the symbolism

I guess it all depends on if A) George is NBA ready this year. B) Murph is traded for players other than a starting PF and C) Rush doesn’t make the jump at SG we want him to.

In the world where George is NBA ready, I would love to see him and DG play the 2 and 3. Granger would guard the opposing SG and George the SF. I think Murph is still valuable, even if he isn’t the greatest defender.

In the world where Murph is traded with no starting PF in return, I wouldn’t mind Granger at 4 symbolically, but would still love to play big at the 2 and 3 with T Brough, Foster, Solo, and McBobs playing PF by committee. I think rebounding will be the big issue here, but Granger and George will hopefully be able to help with this down low.

In the world where Rush doesn’t make the jump we all expect at 2, well, thats the world we now live in. No scenarios needed. If he does “get it” this year, then we are deep at the wing, bonus.

by jantz101 on Jun 30, 2010 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

he is somewhat fragile as the SF position… what is going to happen to him banging with 4’s and fighting for rebounds in traffic all game long?

by dbcb on Jun 30, 2010 7:19 PM EDT reply actions  

+1

We’re not exactly bursting with talent here. Why take our best asset and play him out of position, while also increasing the risk of injury? Besides this is never going to happen anyway, because JOB loves Troy Murphy way too much to decrease his 30+ minutes per game.

by Gary D on Jun 30, 2010 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well one arguement for playing our best asset out of position is that it makes the team better

Murphy could still get 30+ minutes backing up at Center and Power Forward. Don’t forget Hibbert only plays 25 per game.

by Levy2725 on Jul 1, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

In today's NBA the idea of positions seems so fluid anyway

Who’s to say Danny’s true position isn’t an undersized stretch 4?

by Levy2725 on Jul 1, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think it’s a good curveball. Nothing permanent though.

by B-Huse on Jun 30, 2010 8:12 PM EDT reply actions  

If him playing the 4 gives this team the most competitive starting lineup

Then Hell yes you do it. Besides, I hate Murphy.

    PG – ??? (Marcus Wiliams, Aj Price, Lance Stephenson, Free Agent)
                                 ^that’s a crap shoot, right there
    SG – Brandon Rush (I guess…wouldn’t surprise me if he got outplayed at some point)
    SF – Paul George (Who else would play it, Dahntay Jones? Not with JOB on the bench)
    PF – Danny Granger (woot)
     C – Roy Hibbert (work off the big guy, best passer on the team. Best Passing center in the league?)

That’s how I see it.

by infinityzero.systemerror on Jul 1, 2010 1:40 AM EDT reply actions  

my question is

how in the hell did we miss out on the 2010 free agent megashoot? We don’t have big money for anyone till next year. Who the hell is gonna be a free agent next year, and how did we not see this coming? Maybe we can get Artest back

by ritomase on Jul 2, 2010 1:58 AM EDT reply actions  

As it is, Carmelo Anthony is available next year.

But seriously, he isn’t coming here. And even if we had cap room this year, it’s not like they would come here anyways. We’d have to overpay for one of the 2nd or 3rd tier guys. Screw that, build through draft picks and trades with a small mix of free agency. We may be closer to getting back to contention than we think. I suspect we could be competitive with a new coach in a year. Maybe the team surprises this year, though I doubt it.

by infinityzero.systemerror on Jul 2, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

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