The Stone Cold Truth for Trade Scenarios

by kennythered on Jun 12, 2010 1:46 AM EDT

Obviously by the look at all the new FanPosts, it seems as if there is great unrest in Pacer Nation. Everyone has some sort of solution and with the fun Trade Machine toy on espn.com we can all test out our great ideas. However I think there are some inalienable truths when it comes to our most beloved team.

First - Larry Bird is running our team.

Legend was one of the top players of all time and did a wonderful job as a head coach, though it was short lived. However, he has now proven to have little talent at running our front office, as our team has slow deteriorated from a title contender into a lottery team. Other than being some part of drafting Granger his moves have done nothing to improve our team and left us a shell of our former selves.

Knowing these facts, how can we expect him to make some of the wonderful moves everyone is pining for?

Second - Jim O'Brien is our coach.

Sadly and frighteningly enough, it seems as if JOB is going to run this team at least through next season. Larry has bought into something about this guy and wants him to succeed while giving him every chance to do so. This means building some sort of roster that fits his system. Needless to say, I do not like his system, some players, who we need to field a winning team, such as Ford do not like his system, and possible 2011 FA's probably will not like his system. It truly is scary to see constant retreads be given shot after shot to be coaches, then to have one of the retreads end up as your coach, really makes one yearn for Larry Brown, Larry Legend back at the helm or even Isaiah.

Third - We have few assets other teams want and those we have, it's doubtful we'd move.

Danny isn't going anywhere. Hibbert and Tyler will be here. Our tenth pick would only be used as part of a deal to upgrade in the draft (add more picks or move up). Then our expiring deals, Murph/Ford/Dunleavy/Foster, are probably not getting moved this offseason. I would love to see immediate upgrades, but if it costs us our cap space in 2011 or involves one of the aforementioned, it ain't happenin. Larry has played his hand. We are waiting on 2011 and hoping/praying someone actually sees our Indy Cornrows as a dream destination.

Fourth - We will not add salary.

Be it in FA or trades. We do have our midlevel exception but it would take someone of some legit consequence in Larry's mind to use this on. We will address our PG situation (my best bet is a short term deal with Watson) be it in FA, draft or through trade. With the changes in the CBA happening after this season and the constantly dropping cap it is highly doubtful we would take on any sort of salary like Brand/Okafor or other names being kicked around. Also, our attendance has never been an Indy strong suit. We love our team and we would fight for our team, but we aren't showing up for our team. If we sold out games, ownership maybe willing to come close to moving our salary above the cap, but with this economic climate, there is little to no chance of paying the luxury tax in the foreseeable future.

Fifth - Even if we were willing to pay, FA's don't find Indy too appealing.

This aspect can be changed. Hiring a guy who is seen as a players coach and standing behind our players and attempting to rehabilitate them instead of casting them off, would go a very long way. I do understand Tinsley/Jackson/Artest/SWilliams all wore out their welcome but the situations were handled very poorly by the front office and I am sure it did not make us any friends with the agents. Tinsley's career was effectively over when he was told to stop showing up. Not only did this ruin his trade value but it probably made other players outside of the franchise view Indy as a poor team to sign with.

My first suggestion to changing this would be to tell TJ Ford that, effective immediately, he is our starting point guard and he is going to run this team while playing 30+ minutes a night. He's entering the final year of his deal, so he needs to have success for his financial future but it would also allow us to have another trade asset at this year's deadline while getting production out of a guy make 8+ Million this year. However, once he shows some sign of success, I would look to move him in a trade to open the door for a new PG, someone like Livingston or Nate Robinson.

The Solutions

I guess I could just link to about the last 10 FanPosts for the solutions as just about any of those proposed trades or draft selection would help us, however not many of those ideas fit into the 5 truths that I previously listed. This is why I want to keep things pretty realistic and call these my personal goals for the Pacers.

1. Draft someone who can legitimately help us. Tyler Hansbrough is really iffy, on whether he can help us or not. I want someone who may not have all the upside, but will give us something we do not have at a position of need. Personally I love Xavier Henry. This draft honestly reminds me a bit of the 87 Draft. We had the 11th pick that year and everyone was drooling over the local kid in Alford, much like Heyward this season. However we ended up taking a lanky 2 guard who could really shoot the ball in Reggie Miller. I would love to take Henry and show him Miller game tapes, or at least Ray Allen tapes. The guy can stroke, he projects to be a solid defender, and would fit next to Danny really well. He would also give us production immediately. I feel like he is going to be much more consistent and productive than Rush (who I would love to move asap) and has tons more upside. Rush could have come out of college as a freshman and ended up as a possible first rounder but more likely a second rounder. Henry has way more upside than Rush ever had. (Lets face it, BRush is a clone of his brother, inconsistent and an overall enigma)

WIth the post players in this years draft that will be available, I feel they are all being over rated as typical big men are in the draft. I would hate to end up with the next Hilton Armstrong/Cedric Simmons/Robert Swift/Sene type player. I like Whiteside/Udoh/Orton but those guys just do not seem to be worth the 10th pick, with all their question marks. Also the bigs that could slip, will slip for a reason. Aldrich has been compared to Joel Pryzbilla. Do we really want that and don't we have that in Foster? Ed Davis has tons of upside and I do like him but would Larry draft him with us having a UNC PF sitting around who is yet to pay any dividens? I would bet a lot of $ Monroe/Cousins/Favors are not slipping.

It would be great to move down a few picks and still grab Henry while adding a few other assets. There will be plenty of players from 25 to 40 that will have solid NBA careers. Depth is not one of this year's draft's problems.

2. As I mentioned we have our full midlevel exception available. With this I hope Larry targets the PG position. I hate the PG options in the draft this year so I have two names that I hope he kicks the tires on, Shaun Livingston and Nate Robinson. Robinson seems to have learned a lot in his short time in Boston and would be great in an Indy Jersey. He could start out as a 6th man, but I would guess he would push his self into the starting spot while giving us a guy that can score. Livingston seems to have finally gotten healthy and has had a bit of resurgence. He is a huge PG making it possible for him to guard a SG, making it possible to play him and Nate at the 1 and 2 at the same time.

There are more possible FAs out there that could help, but as I previously mentioned, I doubt we spend much money this year since the market for FAs will be reset after next season in the CBA, likely making better players a bit cheaper to obtain.

3. Trades are possible with Larry. He hasn't shied away from them in the past but I would venture a guess that much will not be done this offseason but moves will be made come Feb. I could see Rush being moved and I could see us moving one of our larger expiring deals for someone who would be a long term fix. (ABiendrins and Monta Ellis, though I'm not a huge fan of theirs is a possibility. Though it's a stretch, Al Jefferson could be attainable. I could see Josh Smith being possible if ATL tanks without Joe Johnson. Gerald Wallace/Yao Ming/ LDeng are some more names I could see hitting the market.) Feb of 2011 is a ways away, so you never know who could come available but I do envision the Pacers getting many calls and being pretty active come deadline time this season. There will be teams trying to shed contracts of possibly productive players and we are one of the few franchises, as it stand currently, who will be standing around with cap relief.

4. We aren't going to win, so find a new coach. Selling tickets and winning back fans should be a pretty important part of this coach's job. I am not sure who this could be, but I would love to call Reggie. I am not sure if interest exists, but it would build excitement for 11-12 season. Another name is Mark Jackson, though he could get snapped up this season. Any way, we need to put butts in seats and making a savvy hire is one way to help.

Anyone that made it this far, thanks for reading and I look forward to your input. Sorry for any grammatical/spelling errors.

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Comments

Well Stated

Bravo on the realistic outlook on things.

"My game’s like the Pythagorean Theorem. It ain’t got no answer." - Shaq

by bleedinblueandgold on Jun 12, 2010 2:04 AM EDT reply actions

Yea… you about hit the nail on the head…. but it’s fun to dream.

by B-Huse on Jun 12, 2010 4:15 AM EDT reply actions

Well duh. But the truth is so damn depressing. Let the kiddies have there fun.

by SethGrandpa on Jun 12, 2010 5:04 AM EDT reply actions

Sobering

Sobering comments. I’ll probably address each line item in another reply (about to take the kids to the beach).

A couple things though. I hate Bird’s philsophy, but if you take that out of the equation, he’s done an ok job. He moved JO, I give him an A+ for that move. We got a servicible slightly overpaid PG (who like many of his moves didn’t fit his coach), an under-rated (even if overpaid) Euro style center for a year, a decent replacement for Diogu as our 10th rotation guy in Graham and most importantly the 17th pick, which, if you agree with Bird’s overall approach (and I don’t) he used quite wisely on a low risk/reward Center that could end up being a decent starter for years.

I’m no Bird appologist, but I think Rush is a decent player (don’t expect 20ppg, but do expect good ‘D’ and rebounding from the SG position and you’ll like him) that was taking late in the lottery of a draft that was no good after the first 4 or 5 picks. If Bird had anything to do with Granger I will say he’s got a solid C+ or even a B- going as a drafter (S.Williams, James White, and until further notice Hansbrough and all those Euros stashed over seas are all VERY much busts).

Again, I’m no Bird apologist. I don’t like his philosophy or stuborness, but he’s made some moves some have boardered on bold and a few of those have been positive.

Gotta go to the beach. Be back tonight.

peac.e

by trucutter on Jun 12, 2010 10:20 AM EDT reply actions

I would like Indy to sign Shaun Livingston.

by Sparhawk on Jun 12, 2010 11:06 AM EDT reply actions

great article

the truth hurts sometimes but it is what it is. I agree with everything said. i think the Pacers need to move Ford, Murph, Dun, and yes Rush. I would love to see them draft either henry or George and Get a serviceable PG in a trade with Murph possibly that would allow hansbrough to try and start for the pacers and see what he is capable of.. the pacers arent going anywhere next season so give the young guys there time and chemistry for the following season when all of this money gets freed up with Ford, Dun

by supercolts on Jun 12, 2010 1:59 PM EDT reply actions

Yea, but if we had Kevin Pritchard (Blazers Gm, for now) or Sam Presti (Thunder Gm) you could pretty much throw this article out the window. Those guys get what they want and they always find a way to do it. They’re what Larry and David aren’t….. Bold.

by B-Huse on Jun 12, 2010 2:16 PM EDT reply actions

I'm with you

but why would those guys want to leave their babies? I mean they are about to finally reap the benefits of all their hard work. I know Pritchard is rumored to be fired, but I do not see it happening for at least another season.

Now, I would love to find the next Morey. Lets start searching MIT!!!

by kennythered on Jun 12, 2010 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions

But, I mean the thing is…. it’s not that hard to do…. you find a team that might want what you have, and just use good judgement and be bold. I guess it’s not as easy as it seems.

by B-Huse on Jun 14, 2010 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Great stuff

Agree with just about everything you wrote. The No. 1 on the solutions list is the biggest one for me. Just draft somebody who can actually contribute to the future of this franchise. No more Hansbrough’s or Shawne Williams’ coming through the door.

by smits4ever on Jun 12, 2010 8:15 PM EDT reply actions

I can't think of one team...

….that hasn’t wiffed on a draft pick since Bird has been back.

Mostly, Bird has drafted OK. I hate his philosophy of taking a 30 win team that has little hope of improving its unimpresive core through player development and adding low risk, low ceiling college vets. I mean, he got REALLY lucky with Danny. Danny was a safe pick that could have easily turned out to be no better than Shawne Williams with a little better character. But, the very bizarre happened and a 4 year college player actually made BIG strides for four straight years in the pros. That almost never happens.

So, he got lucky that Danny broke the mold, but he also could have missed on players like Rush and Hansbrough by taking guys like Williams and say, Serge Ilbaka or Jason Thompson, guys who had ALOT more upside and may very well turn out to be much better than Rush or Hansbrough. You gotta take chances to win big and he refuses to do that ever since he thought he had a steal in Williams. I’m not mad at him for swining and missing with Shawne, I’d like to see him try it again, and again, and again. A few of those will be hits and then we will have something really going, and in the mean time our picks will be higher, and higher in the draft and the risk with drafting will go down as the reward goes up….but, we all know this already…

Funny how Bird doesn’t seem to know this.

Still, if you are concerned with how we will ever get better restocking a mediocore roster, with proven mediocore talent…I’m with ya.

peac.e

by trucutter on Jun 13, 2010 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Ok. Beach was cool, here's my thoughts.

1. “I want someone who may not have all the upside, but will give us something we do not have at a position of need. Personally I love Xavier Henry.”

I think Henry has alot of upside, so I can’t argue with that pick. But, I don’t think we can overlook upside considering how much this team needs impact players. Infact, “upside” should be a big consideration when we draft. Looking for proven talent has yeilded future role players like Rush, Hansbrough, and Hibbert (who has turned out to be a solid value from the 17th pick in a shallow draft). We need alot more talent on this team and if you are picking in the late lottery, you’re going to stay in the late lottery if you don’t have alot of upside developing on your roster.

As far as your comments about the past PF/C busts who were drafted based solely on potential. I think those are bad examples. Aside from Hilton Armstrong (who had proven that he wasn’t going to be that good while he was at Uconn) the others were complete unkowns while Udoh and Whiteside have alot more well rounded body of work and in the case of Whiteside alot more potential to get even better based on physical ability.

“It would be great to move down a few picks and still grab Henry while adding a few other assets. There will be plenty of players from 25 to 40 that will have solid NBA careers. Depth is not one of this year’s draft’s problems.”

I agree, if we can move to the mid-teens and pick up another late 1st rounder or early 2nd rounder or future 1st round pick, I’d do it. There’s enough depth in this draft that any spot you move down from, there are guys who are almost equally as promising waiting to be snatched up.

2. I’d love to get either of the PGs you mentioned for the right price. Robinson will probably get atleast the full MLE, which would cost us some luxury tax and therefor probably won’t be in the mix. Livingston however, is still a big injury risk and might come on board if we signed him for some decent gaurenteed coin and spread it out over 3-4 years ($12mil. for 4 years, partially gauranteed player option in the 4th might get it done).

3. “Trades are possible with Larry. He hasn’t shied away from them in the past but I would venture a guess that much will not be done this offseason but moves will be made come Feb…….There will be teams trying to shed contracts of possibly productive players and we are one of the few franchises, as it stand currently, who will be standing around with cap relief.”

Sadly, this is probably true. However, the top 5 of this draft should turn out to be really good in a year or two and the rest of the draft is VERY deep. I think we get better value by moving what we can now for more picks in this draft. There are fewer teams looking for future cap space than in years past. Looking at the summer of 2011 there aren’t many teams that will need cap space. I’m taking out of the equation teams that are likely to make big moves this off-season (CHI, MIA, NJ, LAC, NYK) b/c they currently have cap space in 2011, but may not after this summer, but are also unlikely to have alot of need/desire to move guys they signed this summer when the trade deadline rolls around in Feb.

4. Not much to add here. Our coach stinks, his system isn’t built to win and requires very talented, fast, athletic players which we’ll never get in bottom of the lottery.

So. I think all it is going to take is a significant bump on the head of whoever is in charge of the Pacers to see that they need to take a couple years being bad, collecting draft picks and improving the position of their own draft pick. No brainer, right?

Anyone that made it this far, thanks for reading and I look forward to your input. Sorry for any grammatical/spelling errors.

peac.e

by trucutter on Jun 13, 2010 11:15 AM EDT reply actions

I agree with you on point 1 in hindsight

We need players with upside. I wanted Anthony Randolph sooooo bad a few years back and he was almost all projection. What I think I should have said is we need do not need to take risk on huge upside players vs. players that have proven themselves to a degree but still have upside. If we take players that have a shot to become great, but a better chance to flop, then when these picks do not pay off, we will continue to be perpetual losers. We need some risk, but we need calculated risk.

I stand by my comparison of Whiteside/Udoh/Orton and I’ll add Larry Sanders and Solomon Alabi to Hilton Armstrong and Cedric Simmons.

Whiteside played in a weak Conference USA. I really do like Whiteside and would love to take him around the 20th pick or later, if we had an earlier pick to address other needs. He is also a blackhole when he is given the ball on offense and he takes wayyyy too many 15+ foot jumpers.

Udoh is already 23 years old and until this season never showed much success on the court. There has been a history of drafting players 22 or older and it is not good. Udoh would be a silly risk at 10.

Then there is Orton. I feel he will be the best out of these 3 but it will be 3 years before he reaches that level. And, if Orton ever gets a bit lazy and quits playing D and setting screens while trying to score too much, he will not be successful. He is such an unknown at this point and with our needs, can we take that risk?

But I would say these guys are just as much of a unknowns as Simmons who came from a successful ACC team or Armstrong who I believe won a title at UCONN.

by kennythered on Jun 13, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe...

…I would take Whiteside over any of the guys you mentioned. The current busts and the potential future ones in this draft.

I think Orton has about as much upside as Whiteside, but hasn’t shown anything on the offensive end.

I didn’t watch a Marshall game this year, but I can tell you that Hassan Whiteside has more physical potential than anyone in this conversation. He’s older than most freshman, but still pretty young. I can see how he could be viewed as a risk at pick 10, but he WILL not be there at pick 20 and there’s very, VERY valid reasons for that.

Armstrong played 9mpg behind Okafor, after that he had two mediocore seasons. And don’t even really remember Cedric Simmons in college, NC State right?

But, if this was an exact science we wouldn’t have anything to talk about. One good thing about a draft flop at this stage, it wouldn’t help us win another game or two and slide back to the 10th spot next year…and maybe it would get ownership to hire real management.

peac.e

by trucutter on Jun 13, 2010 3:38 PM EDT reply actions

I just dont think

the pacers should draft a C or a PF. I know the philosophy that you take the best available player but…..
In drafting a Center you will be hurting Hibberts progress. i think he will break out this next season and with Foster being helathy again he will help take time off of hib. I maybe take a prospect center in the second round and try to develop him incase Foster gets hurt again.
I dont think you draft a PF either. i dont see how you can draft a PF and then the very next season draft another PF especailly when you dont even really know that the PF is capable of. You will have a log jam at PF with pretty much two rookie PFs trying to get playing time let alone with a very developing mcroberts playing too.
I wouldnt mind seeing the Pacers pick up another wing player like henry or george or picking up bradley or bledsoe to run the point. If they are good enough. i dont know too much about them though.

the pacers need a PG very badly and anothe solid wing player. One that could play sg or sf. In JOB system the wings are interchangable. I think jOB should go.

Maybe try and trade for a legit PG and

by supercolts on Jun 14, 2010 11:22 AM EDT reply actions

“I dont think you draft a PF either. i dont see how you can draft a PF and then the very next season draft another PF especailly when you dont even really know that the PF is capable of. You will have a log jam at PF with pretty much two rookie PFs trying to get playing time let alone with a very developing mcroberts playing too.
I wouldnt mind seeing the Pacers pick up another wing player like henry or george or picking up bradley or bledsoe to run the point. If they are good enough. i dont know too much about them though.”

This makes no sense at all. You don’t draft for position when you don’t have any good players. You don’t say, well we already have a crippled 30 year old backup center in the final year of his deal, we already have a 4 year college player who got most of his production playing in a style that will get him fouled out of games two nights a week, he looked AWFUL in his NBA performances, but he’s only in his mid-20’s he could go from looking like a complete bust to a future starter.

Look to the future. If we take the best player available and we already have someone at that position then we can trade form a position of strength instead of exploring deals to trade our 10th pick in a really deep draft for a guy we passed on the year before with the 13th.

peac.e

by trucutter on Jun 15, 2010 7:30 PM EDT reply actions