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Pacers Biggest 2010 Off-Season Addition: Tyler Hansbrough


This is not a re-post from last summer, and I did not just step out of a time machine. I honestly believe one of the most important players the Pacers will add this off-season is a healthy Tyler Hansbrough. It's easy to forget his contributions from this past season. It's actually easy to forget that he is still a Pacer, after he missed the last 42 games of the season with vertigo induced by a viral ear infection. He also missed 9 other games with injuries, for a grand total 511 minutes played in 29 games.

Hansbrough is expected to be healthy to begin next season, and will be essentially starting over as a rookie. For full disclosure, I was a fan of the Hansbrough pick last summer. At the time I would have rather picked DeJuan Blair, but I thought and still think that Hansbrough can be a very good NBA player. Hindsight is 20/20, and with the incredible regression of T.J. Ford, picking a point guard like Lawson or Holiday probably would have made more sense. I thought Hansbrough was really impressive in his limited run last year, actually adjusting quicker than I would have expected. Over the past few weeks, I have seen a few other numbers which make me feel very optimistic about his ability to contribute next year.

After the jump, check out some of his statistics from last year and some surprise appearances Tyler made on some very impressive lists.

Star-divide

 

The first Top 10 list Tyler made an appearance on was for a post I wrote at Hickory High, about per minute production from rookies. Hansbrough was 4th among last year's rookie class in Pts/40min.

Top 10 Rookies - Pts/40min.
Player Team Pts/40
Rodrigue Beaubois DAL 22.8
Marcus Thornton NOR 22.6
Tyreke Evans SAC 21.6
Tyler Hansbrough IND 19.3
A.J. Price IND 19.3
Brandon Jennings MIL 19.0
Jonny Flynn MIN 18.7
Reggie Williams GSW 18.7
Darren Collison NOR 18.0
Sam Young MEM 18.0

In addition to out-scoring most of the rookie class, Hansbrough's per minute scoring average is higher than Carl Landry, LaMarcus Aldridge, Russell Westbrook, Travis Outlaw, Eric Gordon, Mo Williams, Baron Davis, Gerald Wallace, Andre Iguodala, and Troy Murphy, among others.

Even people who were skeptical of Hansbrough's NBA potential admitted he could probably do a little bit of scoring off the bench. The main concerns about his transition to the pros were his defense and ability to rebound. That's why I was even more excited to see Hansbrough included in this post at Hardwood Paroxysm. It's some great work by Tom Haberstroh and my explanation probably won't due it justice, but here goes:

Haberstroh was curious about the case of Carl Landry who has gone from one of the best offensive rebounders in the league with the Rockets, to one of the worst in the league with Sacramento. His initial idea was that Landry had become a more perimeter oriented PF with Sacramento, and was therefore around the basket less often to grab rebounds. Haberstroh used a players height, position, and percentage of offense which came from the perimeter to create a predicted Offensive Rebound Rate (the estimated percentage of available offensive rebounds a player grabs when on the floor). He then compared the predicted ORR to the player's actual ORR. Hansbrough showed up 10th on the list of players whose actual ORR is much higher than predicted. Hansbrough's predicted ORR was 8.5% and his actual ORR was 12.8%. This would indicate that Hansbrough is doing a much better job rebounding than anyone thought possible.

In fact when his TRR (Total Rebound Rate) is compared to the rest of the Pacer's he comes out smelling like roses. Tyler's TRR came out to 14.7%, meaning he grabs 14.7% of all available rebounds when he is on the floor. This is the third highest rate on the team, behind only Murphy and Foster. Hansbrough's ORR is second only to Foster's on the Pacers last season. Among rookies who averaged more than 10 minutes per game his ORR is 4th behind only Jordan Hill, DeJuan Blair and Jon Brockman.

I am not implying Tyler will be making any All-Star teams in the near future. He still forces a lot of bad shots, evidenced by his very low shooting percentages. He still has a ton of room to grow defensively. He will continue to have the same physical limitations. That being said, he can really score. He is a much better rebounder than advertised, gets to the free throw line at an incredible rate, doesn't turn the ball over, and plays with an unmatched intensity. His injuries caused him to fade to the background last year, but this season he gets a do-over. Even without a trade the Pacers will essentially have two first round draft picks as rookies next year. In an effort to keep hope alive, I'll leave you with some of his stats from last season.

Ten Important Stats - Tyler Hansbrough
Pts/40 Reb/40 Ast/40 ORR TRR FTA/40 eFG% FT% FTA/FGA TO/Pos
19.3 10.8 2.2 12.7% 14.7% 8.9 36.0% 74.3% 0.50 0.09

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Tyler Hansbrough is good role player,i think healthy Tyler really helps Pacers somewhere.

by Kamiyo on May 3, 2010 1:28 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm still a fan

In each game he played for us, he caught and kept my attention the entire time he was on the court. He was McRoberts X 2. Not as exciting for dunking purposes, but he was just everywhere (not always where he needed to be, but alas, he was everywhere). The injury was ridiculous and I think the Pacers still owe us more information on what really went on this season. The latest talk appears to be positive about his return, and I’ll remain optimistic that he can add something to this team next year.

Indy Cornrows

by spstevenson on May 3, 2010 1:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Anytime you can pick up a 4 who can shoot 36% from the field, while pulling in 10 boards per 48 you have to get him……

" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "

by aaronb on May 3, 2010 2:16 PM EDT reply actions  

The 10.8 statistic is per40, not per 48.

My point is NOT that he is a terrific rebounder. My point is that he is a MUCH better rebounder than was expected when we drafted him. It’s also worth noting that his 10.8 boards per 40 is better than Gerald Wallace, Josh Smith, Kevin Garnett, Paul Millsap, Brook Lopez, Nene Hilario, LaMarcus Aldridge, David West, Dirk Nowitzki, Jeff Green, and many other frontcourt starters.

I agree his shooting percentages are absolutely terrible. TERRIBLE. He may never provide as much value as Ty Lawson, DeJuan Blair or any of the other players picked after him. But other than a freak injury, he didn’t do anything this season that deserved him being labeled a bust. I think there is reason to be hopeful he can be a solid contributor.

by Levy2725 on May 3, 2010 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

My point is that the glass ceiling is low

It was a waste of a lotto pick to get him in the first place. He was thought to be less of a pro prospect than Josh McRoberts was when they were both in College.

Josh McRoberts is still younger and has the higher ceiling than Hansboro now.

It didn’t make sense to use a lotto pick on a 9th/10th man type of guy last summer. And it doesn’t reallly look any better now 10 months later.

" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "

by aaronb on May 3, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed.

Tyler didn’t fit a need for us nearly as much as Blair. Blair brought better rebounding and defense which would have been huge next to Roy on the court. Not to mention that he was on the court all season something Tyler never had a chance at with his shin injury. I won’t even talk about the most mysterious ear infection in the history of pro basketball.

And don’t get me started on the idiocy of passing on Lawson and Holiday. Personally I still would vote for Holiday with that pick but that’s me, I’m not a huge fan of picking a third string big man with our lottery pick.

by ThirtyOne on May 3, 2010 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Again, I am not arguing that Hansbrough was the perfect pick

Blair probably would have been a better fit, as would just about any of the PG’s available. For better or worse, Tyler is who picked, and I think there is reason to be optimistic about his ability to contribute next year and in the future. I think he is much better than a 3rd string big man, and hopefully I won’t be eating this words in 12 months.

I would also argue that even now, Hansbrough is a better long term prospect than McRoberts. McRoberts is certainly more athletic and has an advantage in size. Hansbrough is much more skilled and polished, despite his atrocious shooting percentages this season. The only area I could think of as being an advantage for McBob would be defense, so I looked up some numbers at 82games.com. The Pacers Def. Rtg. with Hansbrough on the floor was 107.2 with him on the floor and 108.6 with him off the floor. Those numbers weren’t great but they were WAY better than McRoberts. The Def. Rtg. with McRoberts on the floor was 110.6 and 108.0 with him off the floor. Also McRoberts essentially took the minutes Hansbrough had been playing when he went down with the ear infection, meaning they posted those ratings with essentially the same teammates.

I even compared their season stats at Basketball-Reference. McRoberts has a huge advantage in FG% but on far fewer shots (I’m talking totals here, not per game.) McRoberts also seems to have a slight advantage in Defensive Rebounding and some assist totals. Other than that they are even or Hansbrough has an advantage in almost every category.

I like them both, and I am excited to watch them both develop. But if I had to choose I would take Tyler’s skill level over McRoberts’ athleticism.

by Levy2725 on May 3, 2010 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Tyler is an NBA player

He just had no business being a lotto pick.
 
His ceiling/niche is that of an energy guy 9th/10th man who provides energy for 10-15 minutes per night.

Those guys you find in the D-League or the 2nd round. Not in the Lotto.

Just another example of why I don’t have much faith in Larry Bird as a talent evaluator. He seems more concerned with proving everybody wrong, and reinventing the wheel. As opposed to making sound basketball judgements however obvious that they might be.

" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "

by aaronb on May 3, 2010 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Tyler needs time in NBA games

to work on getting his shot off. His face to the basket game he used in college is not going to work on much bigger players in the NBA. That being said Levy touched on a very important point, Tyler is very skilled and knows how to play the game. He will develop different methods to getting his shot off and will shoot much better than 36% from the floor. It was really unfortunate he missed so much time last year because time is really the most important thing for him. While I agree he will never be a stud in the NBA, I think he is a much better prospect than a) McRoberts and b) the 9-10 player on roster. He provides energy and toughness which is something this team could have really used this year. His rebounding numbers are very good as well. Hopefully he can stay healthy and continue to work on his perimeter shot and getting the ball off the glass down low. I think he can still develop into a special player with that work ethic.

"My game’s like the Pythagorean Theorem. It ain’t got no answer." - Shaq

by bleedinblueandgold on May 3, 2010 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Blair

People around here seem to forget that Blair ended up being picked 37th overall. I’m not saying that he didn’t have a great season or that he doesn’t have potential or that he wouldn’t have been a good fit for us. However, people complain about Larry’s decision. What would have been a bad decision on Bird’s part would have been to blow the 13th pick on someone who went 37th! If you could have gotten him at 36, a good decision would have been to trade up and grab him, not take him with the 13th pick.

by indy62 on May 3, 2010 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bird’s job is to evaluate the talent and take the most talented player at a position of need. At the 13th pick of the draft we took Hansbrough who people had going much lower. So if you’re saying that it would have been a mistake to take Blair at the 13th, it definitely was a mistake to take Tyler there as well.

I also don’t like the excuse that since Blair fell to 37th we should give Bird a pass on this mistake. I don’t care what all the other GM’s do, I just want ours to be able to recognize the best player and to select him. So far the only pick Bird has gotten right has been the Hibbert pick, and that is debatable. We can’t afford to keep missing on our Lottery picks, especially when we keep picking so late.

by ThirtyOne on May 4, 2010 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

I never liked the “8-10 other teams have a terrible GM just like us excuse”.

It doesn’t make me feel better about the Pacers that there are 10 other teams being mismanaged almost as badly as we are.

I’d like for us to be one of the 5-10 teams that ARE well run. Similar to how Donnie Walsh ran this franchise for 15-20 years.

" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "

by aaronb on May 4, 2010 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

23 teams passed on Blair after us. If I remember correctly, there were really only 4 players that people were seriously considering at 13 last year. Blair, Holiday, Lawson, and Hansbrough. The fact that 23 other teams passed on Blair after us (including well run teams like the Jazz, Blazers, Mavs, Thunder, and Lakers) makes me think taking Blair would have been one hell of a reach. Hansbrough wasn’t much of a reach at 13 given what was available. I think most mock drafts had him going around 13-15. Whether Bird should have taken Lawson or Holiday is a legit question in my mind. Whether he should have taken Blair at 13 is a bit of a reach.

by indy62 on May 4, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

i also seen today that the starbucks inside conseco is closing down.....

my suggestion is to change it to a “cheers” type of bar where the 14 true pacer fans can go to after each loss and make the tears taste less bitter…either that or a skin show, and really i’m fine with either one

If Youre not First, Youre Last

by drsuessrunner07 on May 3, 2010 2:22 PM EDT reply actions  

I freaked out as much as anyone when we drafted him. But, to be fair he did look really good in some games.

by B-Huse on May 3, 2010 3:55 PM EDT reply actions  

Agreed. He really grew on me when I actually go to see him play.

by indy62 on May 3, 2010 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm really pulling for the guy.

I think Hansborough will be just fine, and I wouldn’t count him out of being a fine 10th pick. No guarantees but the dude was one heck of a college player; I have to believe that translates into something at the pro level.
I really think a Hansborough-Hibbert duo could be fun to watch as well as successful. Hope we get a chance to see it.

by ottoprice13 on May 3, 2010 7:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Yes. With the 10th pick last year, we would have had Brandon Jennings….

by indy62 on May 3, 2010 7:43 PM EDT reply actions  

here is the thing with hansborough he is more than the stats you guys talk about, his intangibles are probably the reason he was brought here in the first place. slapping some stats on him doesnt serve him justice. i was very disappointed when we picked him but i can see why they did it. the one player i wanted from the draft last year was b jennings but alas he didnt fall to us. for my part i think in the future that hans will be a better overall nba player than murphy and he will actually help team win unlike said notre dame player.

by plurarch on May 4, 2010 12:53 PM EDT reply actions  

one thing i do like about hansbro

is how strong he is. i would love to see him knock guys on their backs when they get into the paint, like the old pacers used to do. i think with how crazy and physical he is, he could make things really uncomfortable for the opposition. his natural ability though, who knows- i can see him being just a banger role player, but also wouldn’t be surprised if he made the needed adjustments to his shot to become a good starter too. its just impossible to tell now….

here’s hoping!

by BenD on May 4, 2010 2:35 PM EDT reply actions  

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