My Pacers Rebuild

by Jonathan King on Feb 14, 2010 4:39 PM EST

I know there are a lot of these floating around, but check out this one, it takes the roster 10 players deep-

PG- Mike Conely, Aj Price

PF- Chris Bosh, Tyler Hansb.

All current Pacers contracts would stay as-is (with options being used on Hibbert, Rush and Hansb.). Dunleavy would be re-signed to a 3 year deal worth 4, 4.5, and 5 mil per year ascending. Free agent signings would be of-

Chris Bosh- Four year deal worth- 14, 14.5, 15, 15.5 (numbers in millions, per year)

Kendrick Perkins- Two year deal worth- 5, 5.5 (millions, per year)

Mike Conely- Four year deal worth- 7, 7.5, 8, 8.5 (millions per year)

This would put the team at 52.7 million in contracts for 2011-2012. Should be around 5 million below the cap. Obviously your 5 other players aren't figured into that number, although there may be some exceptions to be had somewhere in the mix, and I'm sure the Pacers could fill out the rest of the roster on the cheap.

Anyway, I think this is a competitive team, which is fielded below the cap. These are players who I believe would be willing to come to Indiana. This team could probably pull the 4-seed in the current Eastern Conference.

Anyway, I'm kind of using this to show how hard it is to really crunch the numbers and make it work in a place like Indiana. LBJ, Kobe, and DWade don't want to play here. Lots of players aren't available in 2011-2012 anyway... This future rebuild is going to be tough even after we get the bad contracts off the books. I wish the Pacers could get lucky and draft another Granger, but I don't see it happening anytime soon, and obviously you can't bank on the idea.

Tweet Comment 32 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Ummmm

A- Bosh is gonna sign for a max, no way would he come to Ind for what you put up there, heck no way he’ll come to Ind period.

B-pretty sure perkins has an extension that’ll lock him up for a while, not fully certain though. Even if he doesn’t he wouldn’t come to be a backup in Ind and he will earn more than what you suggest

C-Not quite sure memphis would give up conley/he would want to leave memphis for indiana either, their team is on the rise and he’s a fairly good fit for their team afaik

by 7-9nomore on Feb 14, 2010 4:46 PM EST reply actions

Disagree on-

A- Bosh isn’t worth the max, anybody who pays him that is going to have another J.O. and the untradeable contract on their hands if ANYTHING goes wrong with him. Hence nobody will pay him more than what he currently is making (around 14-15 mil a season). Who is going to sign him? NYC is chasing Lebron, the Bulls are chasing Wade, and Kobe stays in LA with Gasol. Bosh is going to try and shop himself to the big teams for the big money, but their won’t be any takers. Their aren’t many teams with as much money to spend in 2011-2012 as the Pacers. Also, read the last part of this reply it kind of touches on this point.

B- I somewhat agree, I think Perkins will look to start and probably wouldn’t come to play as a backup, however I wasn’t sold on even listing him. Look at solid centers who are going to be free-agents in 2011, not a long list AT ALL! Hopefully Indiana can draft someone, but that isn’t always a solid bet with this Pacers front office. I was trying to avoid having to depend on the draft. Anyway, you’re probably right on this one. (He doesn’t have an option though, unless my source “HoopsHype” is wrong).

C- Being from Indy could help us out as far as landing him. Memphis isn’t a big market, so I don’t think there is a “no way he comes to Indy” argument to be made here. Maybe Memphis resigns him for more than 7 mil, but maybe not. Depends on how he matures and what their situation is at the time. If he stays at his current level of play, 7 mil and a trip back home should at least tempt him quite a bit.

One thing for you to keep in mind- The salary cap is probably going to drop slightly each of the next few years. Lot’s of teams in the NBA are struggling. The age of stars outside of the leagues very biggest (Kobe, Lebron, Howard, Wade) being able to demand 20 million are over.

by Jonathan King on Feb 14, 2010 5:02 PM EST up reply actions

Bosh

is going to sign for a max this year. I’m not talking about his worth, just that he will sign a max (Toronto would offer him a max for one). No way he’ll just accept his player option for this year (he’ll decline and sign long term this summer).

by 7-9nomore on Feb 14, 2010 5:52 PM EST up reply actions

A- Bosh is for sure gonna sign a max deal.

B- Perkins is valued greatly in Boston and they are going to keep him around unless a team dangles way more than his worth, in which case we will be giving up too many assets or too much money.

C- Memphis is a team on the rise and they aren’t going to let their young starting point guard get away.

"My game’s like the Pythagorean Theorem. It ain’t got no answer." - Shaq

by bleedinblueandgold on Feb 14, 2010 7:08 PM EST up reply actions

Michael f'n Redd signed a max deal.

You really don’t think someone is giving Bosh one?

by SethGrandpa on Feb 14, 2010 9:54 PM EST up reply actions

Time

Redd signed his deal back in what 05-06? It’s a different NBA when it comes to stars who aren’t in the top 3-5 players in the league.

Anyway, care to come up with some names and numbers for who the Pacers could sign in the 2011-2012 off-season? I’m curious to see what other people think since my ideas are all apparently ridiculous.

Haha not an attack on anyone who has pointed out some errors in my reasoning, I’m just curious to see what someone thinks is a more reasonable plan that at least has the Pacers solidly in the playoffs.

Maybe going after no other solid pieces, but say Jamal Crawford? Having AJ Price, Jamal Crawford, Granger, Hansb., and Hibbert start? Rush and Jones are our current bench pieces left? Hoping to draft some solid back-ups? Paying Crawford a 3-5 year deal worth 15 mil a year and hoping for the best? IMO that team isn’t much better if at all than the team we field now.

by Jonathan King on Feb 14, 2010 10:18 PM EST up reply actions

Hmmm

I’m not sure Conley will come to Indy, given that he’s in a pretty sweet situation in Memphis. B Rush is way too flaky to be a starting 2 on a contender team. Dunleavy is again too injury prone(not to mention overpaid). If as you said “LBJ, Kobe, and DWade don’t want to play here”, then why would Chris Bosh would want to come to Indy? And even if he did, we’re not in a good enough financial situation to sign him to a max deal(which is probably what the Raps will give him).

I like the boldness of the plan, but I’m not sure it would work.

by Gary D on Feb 14, 2010 6:27 PM EST reply actions

Gary,

This is a plan for the offseason before 2011-12 season, when all our bad contracts come off the books. So, for the numbers I put out, we’d have the money.

I think by 2011-12 Rush will be ready to be the starting 2 guard on a solid playoff team, the team I hypothesize above is not a true championship contender in my book anyway, but a team built for a sustained (3-4 year) run of solidly (3-6 seed) making the playoffs.

7-9/Bleedin,

A.) I still disagree on Bosh getting a max deal. Maybe the powers that be in Toronto are a little slower than I think… I just don’t see him as worth it, and I think they can figure it out… Why pay Bosh 20 mil a year or more when you could go after LBJ for that kind of cash? Also they are a solid team, but nothing special, why lock up around 40 percent of their cap in Chris Bosh? He’s an awesome player, but Chris Bosh without an equally good player, or a better one will never be a title team. When was the last time a big man staring team won the title? Don’t say the Celts either bc they had Pierce and Allen, and KG isn’t your typical big man (more range, more athletic than 99 percent of your star big guys). Maybe you guys are right, I just don’t see it.

B.) I think you guys are probably right, Perk wouldn’t leave to play second fiddle. He’d just go someplace else and start if the money in Boston isn’t right. I’m just not comfortable with Hibbert being the true center without at least an equally as good backup.

C.) Memphis is known for making crappy moves, and I’m really not sure how much they value Conley. I could see him getting away.

Anyway, I’d like to see what some other people have to say about who we can sign in 2011-2012 then based off the “Bird Master Plan.” You can’t just toss names and numbers out there, do some research (I spent quite a bit of time to just find three pieces I thought would fit who are on schedule to be free agents that year).

Any takers?

by Jonathan King on Feb 14, 2010 9:28 PM EST up reply actions

2011 Free Agents

Here is a link to all the free agents after the 2010-2011 season:

http://www.realgm.com/src_freeagents/2011/

Sorry, I’m not sure how to make this a hyperlink, unless it does automatically after I submit the message.

I think if you’re looking for a big man who rebounds and plays defense that can come off the bench for 20-25 minutes a game who can accompany Hibbert, a player like Samuel Dalembert or Tyson Chandler may be able to be gotten for mid level money.

The problem with getting a young point guard through a trade is that you are almost never going to get a difference maker. No team wants to trade a young point guard whom they feel can lead their team. The young difference making point guards in this league have no chance of leaving. Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Russell Westrbook, Derek Rose, Rajon Rondo, Brandon Jennings, Tyreke Evans are the true young leaders of teams. None of these players would want to leave their situation to come to Indiana. I think if we are going to get a playmaker and game changer at the point guard position, we are going to have to find it through the draft.

How much cap room we have also will play an important role in what kind of player we can go after. If we trade our contracts away this year (Murph, Dunleavy, Ford) then we will have little money for the 2011 offseason. If we hold on to them and have a bunch of expiring contracts for that offseason then we can go after one of the top names. Bosh is certainly going to get a max deal. He is putting up great numbers this year and Toronto will break the bank for him. There aren’t many names on that list who are reasonably attainable that I would want to go after. This is another reason I think the Pacers need to clear cap space for this summer and hope for the best in the draft.

It’s very hard to look that far ahead because there is still a lot than can happen before then. Who knows what kind of players we will get via trade or draft that may change the whole outlook on this team. Dream scenario is that we will be active this summer and put some nice pieces together and look for the 2011-2012 season to add a few more pieces at the mid-level area.

"My game’s like the Pythagorean Theorem. It ain’t got no answer." - Shaq

by bleedinblueandgold on Feb 15, 2010 12:14 PM EST up reply actions

I like

Chandler over Dalembert, just because he’s a bit younger and we are still talking about two years from now.

I see what you’re saying about the PG situation, thats why I had my eye on Conely, I feel like he is solid, but someone that a team could let go. He isn’t Chris Paul or Deron Williams, you know?

Also, I see what you are saying about trying to trade and clear up some space this year, because besides Bosh, what big names are out there that year? Paul Pierce, Dirk? Those players aren’t getting any younger. I’m not willing to pay either of those guys big money for a deal of longer than one to two years when 2011-12 rolls around, and they are going to want longer deals than that (Kobe, D Wade, and LBJ will make decisions this offseason so their names are out I think, not to mention they want big markets). The Pacers need another star to partner with Granger IMO in order to be a true solid team. I don’t think a SG or SF would work because, number one Granger plays SF obviously, and star SG and SFs usually have the same style game. I think a PG, PF, or C fits a lot better. I just don’t know who is going to be out there.

Any ideas on what star could be a good running mate with Granger? Either by dumping contracts this year or waiting until the expire next year?

by Jonathan King on Feb 15, 2010 12:39 PM EST up reply actions

Conley

Conley will totally be available. Lionel Hollins likes him, but the local community in Memphis doesn’t really like him. He doesn’t shoot real well, and isn’t overly dynamic.

I think Raymond Felton would be just as good of a fit.

" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "

by aaronb on Feb 15, 2010 1:20 PM EST up reply actions

Barring any significant trades, Toronto has most of its soft cap room for the next four years locked pretty much on calderon, turkoglu, bargnani and jack. They do not have any money under the soft salary cap to sign a premier free agent this summer if he walks. Why not pay Bosh max then if they can’t replace him? In other words, they don’t mind spending 40% of cap on bosh because they can’t spend it on anyone else anyway.

Also, regarding your hypothetical lineup for 2 yrs from now, I think you’re missing the (likely good/high pick) rookie you’ll be drafting this year. Isn’t it also kind of hard to know in advance who will be available and could be gotten after? Another possibility that someone else posted is that next year you’ll have crapload of expirings next yr that you may trade for value, so… Imo planning that far ahead is a pretty futile exercise.

by 7-9nomore on Feb 14, 2010 10:45 PM EST reply actions

I see

I see what you’re saying about Bosh now, they have most of their soft cap space already used up so they have to resign a current player to get an exception because if not they don’t have the money to sign anyone else. Makes sense that way.

The reason I didn’t put a decent rookie in the line-up and look at who is going to be available in this years draft is because IMO the Pacers haven’t been the best in drafting players lately, and I refuse to count on a draft pick with this front office. Granger and Price have turned out to be good picks… anyone else? Hansb. was doing okay, but at number what was it 14? We could have gotten more value. I think it is easier to look at 2011-2012 contracts that could expire vs. looking at who is going to be in the draft this year anyway.

Majority of the reason I did this, was to see what other people could come up with. Nobody has come up with a thing… only been critical of what I came up with. I think its pretty fun, and would be interesting to see what the Pacers could do in a few years with free agent signings, and I don’t see it as futile at all. One of the main reasons I did it was to try and put myself in Bird’s shoes and see how hard it would be to bring a championship caliber team to Indy via free agency and not just getting lucky in the draft (IE Pacers win the lottery and draft Wall at PG, have wall and granger as a two headed beast and then sign some solid vets to fill out the lineup for 2011-12 and 2012-13 after Wall has had some time to mature. IMO that team still doesn’t win the title).

by Jonathan King on Feb 15, 2010 11:46 AM EST up reply actions

you don’t rebuild through FA.. you rebuild through the draft. it may be a stretch, but look at the celtics. technically, they traded.. but with their draft picks.. that #4 pick and Al Jefferson.

You need to be able to not only evaluate talent at the draftee level, but help that talent develop. The Pacers struggle to do either consistently.

by Ryan Berger on Feb 16, 2010 4:32 AM EST up reply actions

Bosh

Will not be coming to Indiana for more reasons that I care to type. He is a max-deal player that puts up double-doubles and gets better every year. I could see Memphis letting go of Conley in a few scenarios but honestly he’s not our answer at PG. He’s streaky and his defense is atrocious.

by Desean on Feb 15, 2010 10:19 AM EST reply actions

Who is

Our answer at PG? If we can’t sign a solid FA at PG, why not just let Price mature and give him a shot. If he doesn’t workout ASAP, we can just ship him off for little or nothing in return like this team seems to always do. He’ll then become a productive starter on his next squad, leaving Indy with junk for him.

But seriously, got any ideas for the point?

by Jonathan King on Feb 15, 2010 11:49 AM EST up reply actions

Paul/Deron..?

Don’t they become FAs in 2 yrs assuming they turn down their option? haha a stretch I know.

by 7-9nomore on Feb 15, 2010 12:25 PM EST up reply actions

I am

Personally a huge fan of Price and I think (barring us getting VERY lucky with that whole John Wall thing) that Price could be our answer in the future…that is if JOB ever gives him the reigns…

by Desean on Feb 15, 2010 1:43 PM EST up reply actions

both

become FAs following the 2011-2012 season if they don’t take their options. Indy should have money following the 2010-2011 season… They would have to turn down their options and we would have to wait another season after we have money to even have a chance at them.

by Jonathan King on Feb 15, 2010 1:33 PM EST reply actions

We have no idea what the NBA landscape will look like in a year or two. People arguing whether or not plsyer will re-sign with a team or not is just ridiculous. Those players probably don’t even know if they will or not… Oh and Bosh will get a max deal… especially this offseason where there are like 5 teams that will be after him. If offers don’t start out at the max deal, teams will eventually “up the ante” and make it one. The best move we can probably make is shopping the several final-year contracts we have next year. It may get us really nice player like an Iguodala if he is not traded by the trade deadline.

by B-Huse on Feb 15, 2010 5:09 PM EST reply actions

1. That’s not a rebuild. There’s only 3 new faces.
2. AJ Price is more of a starter than Mike Conley. Dude’s a turd.
3. Where’s your 2010 draft pick? John Wall or Demarcus Cousins?
4. Even if we did sign Perkins, I doubt he’d wanna be a backup on a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in years when he’s been starting for a Championship-caliber team.
5. Even if he was content as a backup, he’s still better than Hibbert. He’d have better stats than Hibbert if he played on the Pacers.
6. We’re not signing Bosh. If we sign Bosh (who isn’t worth a max deal) I’m deserting the team.
7. I don’t even think that’s financially possible anyways. Your contracts you’re offering Conley, Bosh, and Perkins are totally disregarding the NBA’s Soft Cap
8. Brandon Rush ain’t a starter. Hell, it’s a stretch to call him a formidable backup.

Please don’t make another “Pacers Rebuild” until you understand the Salary Cap in the NBA, the value of the players, and the term “Rebuild”

by Ryan Berger on Feb 16, 2010 3:12 AM EST reply actions

also, I noticed you said this is after 2011 offseason when our contracts are off the books. where’s that draft pick too? you’re not expecting us to make any decent selections? draft is bigger than trying to land a star in FA (it’s not gonna happen in the near future, at least until we’ve established ourselves as an AT LEAST .500 team)

by Ryan Berger on Feb 16, 2010 4:29 AM EST up reply actions

That’s true Jonathan, you’re missing out on probably our biggest bright spot in recent history…. A draft pick in the single digits. I honestly like Wesley Johnson if we are to draft around 5. Put him in at the 3 and move Danny to the 4. I see him as a Kevin Durant/Melo type of player honestly. He can stroke it and is SOOOO athletic. Danny’s athletic enough to make up for the slower feet of Hibbert. Maybe trade Dunleavy’s contract and our 2011 pick for Devin Harris? I mean it may not be the most conventional team…. but it sure would be fun to watch.

by B-Huse on Feb 16, 2010 1:24 PM EST up reply actions

That does sound very entertaining. Not a fan of granger at the 4 but it has worked at times this season. I’m curious as to how fellow fans feel about Evan Turner and DeMarcus Cousins (just in case Pacer luck continues the way it has and we don’t land the first pick)

by Desean on Feb 16, 2010 1:31 PM EST up reply actions

Evan Turner’s back really scares me.

DeMarcus Cousins would by my 2nd pick behind John Wall. I see no way he isn’t a rugged inside 15-10 Charles Oakley type of pro.(Exactly what we need)

Derrick Favors is my #3

If we can’t get Wall,Cousins,Favors then I am in favor of trading down to get Greg Monroe late in the lottery.

This draft seems really thin in terms of “can’t miss” top end talent. However there are a whole lot of NBA guys that can be had 20-40

Elliot Williams
Craig Brackens
Abdul Gaddy
Terrico White
Eric Bledsoe
Lance Stephenson

All six of those guys will make an NBA impact at some time. Gaddy is the furthest away. But he would be a perfect guy to snag late in the 2nd round and stash for 2 years in Ft. Wayne.

" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "

by aaronb on Feb 16, 2010 1:45 PM EST up reply actions

I like Cousins but I don’t know if I like him next to Roy. Roy has a lot great things in his game but like I said quick feet isn’t one of them. Derrick Favors would be a great player to have along with Hibby. Just go to google video and watch his athleticism…. dear god. Plus put Derrick Favors at Center when Roy’s on the bench with Danny at the 4…. That would be a scary up-tempo team. I can also see why you don’t like Danny at the 4 Desean. That’s why I would want to make a move for a guy like Brandon Bass. Reports say he’s not too happy with the lack of time and to throw him in to soften up the opposing interior defense would be nice. I like Evan Turner a lot even though that back kinda scares me as well. But that also goes to show that he’s TOUGH. Turner would be a really nice pick for a team with a bunch of young guys like us because he can play three different positions. Say someone steps it up at PG then he can play the 2. If AJ Price doesn’t work we can throw him in at Point Guard. His versatility could go miles for us in the rebuilding stages. Also, think of a 6’7 Turner playing the point…. He could shut down some of the best PG’s in the league on D and be able to see over everyone on offense. Then just give him the ball down low on a 6 foot guy and watch him go to work.

by B-Huse on Feb 16, 2010 5:38 PM EST up reply actions

1.) It’s a headline for the post, and maybe a poor choice of words. Fair enough.

2.) That’s your opinion- I disagree.

3.) I’m expecting the Pacers to make a weak draft choice; I feel like they normally do.

4.) Fair enough, if you read some of my replies, I think you’ll find you’re beating a dead horse.

5.) 2011-12 season, not right now. This takes into account a few more years of development for Roy.

6.) Maybe we do, maybe we don’t. I agree, he isn’t worth the max deal. I don’t have him listed at one, but some posters have shown in pretty intelligent arguments why he might get a max deal.

7.) I know it’s possible. “This would put the team at 52.7 million in contracts for 2011-2012. Should be around 5 million below the cap. Obviously your 5 other players (11-15) aren’t figured into that number, although there may be some exceptions to be had somewhere in the mix, and I’m sure the Pacers could fill out the rest of the roster on the cheap.”

That’s a quote from the 1st paragraph after the hypothetical salaries listed in my post. I’ll crunch the numbers on each player’s salary if you want. Don’t say someone is or is not doing something when you don’t read their entire post.

8.) Again, that’s your opinion, not mine. I feel that by 2011-12 Brandon Rush will be a solid starter.

I’m not understanding why you feel the need to challenge someone’s post in such a rude way. Especially not one of the more talked about posts on this website right now. Considering it’s doing exactly what I wanted it to, (getting more people to throw out their ideas for various “rebuilds” of the Pacers) I feel like it’s a darn nice discussion I’ve started.

Thanks.

by Jonathan King on Feb 16, 2010 10:50 PM EST up reply actions

My mistake

this is supposed to be a reply to Ryan Berger.

by Jonathan King on Feb 16, 2010 10:50 PM EST up reply actions

Regardless, the team isn’t that much different and it’s still probably doubtful they’d be this top-four team in the east you expect them to be.. They’re not much better than the team we’ve had for the past 6 seasons.

by Ryan Berger on Feb 16, 2010 11:11 PM EST reply actions

Again...

I disagree. The Bosh lead Raptors are the 5 seed. Maybe not the 4 seed each year like I said, but 5 is being a little nit picky don’t ya think? The current 6 seed is the .500 Thunder- Surely you agree that the listed team would be better than that or a comparable squad? I know this is of course talking about something that could happen a few years in the future but still, I think you’re really just off-base in thinking a Bosh-Granger lead team isn’t a solid 3-6 seed team (I mentioned that is what I thought in one of my other replies) in the East for a few years. Maybe you don’t, that’s your opinion, you’re entitled to it.

by Jonathan King on Feb 16, 2010 11:22 PM EST up reply actions

Its impossible to predict seeds 2 years into the future

Who knows what will happen with other teams. If Bosh, Wade, and LBJ all relocate to Western Conference teams (highly unlikely, but still), that team might be a top 3 seed in the East. Regardless, we won’t get Bosh because he’s getting a max deal and we can’t afford him. Also, the Thunder are in the West; the Bobcats are currently 6th in the East.

by TheHawk5 on Feb 16, 2010 11:42 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks,

Hawk. Sometimes, I get the two confused. Darn expansion/relocating teams!

You’re probably right about Bosh anyway. 7-9 explained Bosh’s situation in Toronto in detail above. I just like to throw ideas out there sometimes and see what ideas other people have to throw out as well. The more I read from others, the more I’m liking the idea of trying to dump the expirings for picks and younger players this summer. It’s scary as a fan because, I highly doubt this team’s abilities to scout in the draft and in the young talent market. Wish they had eyes like the Colts seem to for what can make a team work.

by Jonathan King on Feb 17, 2010 12:01 AM EST reply actions