11/1/10 - Pacers' Stat of the Week: Shot Selection

Welcome to the first regular season installment of our weekly feature here at IndyCornrows, Stat of the Week. This feature, posted each Monday morning, focuses in on one statistic or number to recap and tell the story of the Pacers' performance for the previous week.

The Pacers' started their regular season strong, winning their last two over Charlotte and Philadelphia, after dropping their opener to San Antonio. There have been strong performances from a number of players, and good signs on offense and defense. Each game thus far has had a very distinct storyline, so I struggled this week looking for one category to focus on. I decided to hone in on the Pacers' shot selection thus far.

The stats website, Hoopdata.com, has tracked the locations of shots for the past 4 seasons. They break each shot down into one of 5 categories; At the Rim, <10ft., 10-15ft., 16-23ft. and 3PT. Using this information we can look at what percentage of the Pacers' shots are coming from each location.

A perfectly even breakdown would have the team attempting 20% of their shots from each location. Obviously, this rarely happens as some shots are easier or more difficult to get. In addition, shots at the rim are more likely to be made, increasing their value. 3PT shots have the added bonus of an extra point per make, which increases their value.

The table below shows the percentage of the Pacers' attempts which came from each location on the floor last season, and this season. I have also incorporated the league average from last season and the averages from the 5 most efficient offenses last year (Phoenix, Orlando, Atlanta, Cleveland, Denver) and the 5 least efficient offenses last year (New Jersey, Minnesota, Chicago, L.A. Clippers, Washington.) I included Washington, the 6th least efficient offense, as the Pacers' were 5th last season. I also included the FG% made on each type of shot and the FTR (FTA/FGA) for each category.

At Rim FGA% At Rim FG% <10ft. FGA% <10ft. FG% 10-15ft. FGA% 10-15ft. FG% 16-23ft. FGA% 16-23ft. FG% 3PT FGA% 3PT FG% FTR
League Average '09-'10 32.5% 61.0% 11.2% 44.1% 9.1% 39.8% 24.9% 39.6% 22.2% 35.5% 30.0
5 Best Offenses '09-'10 32.5% 63.4% 11.3% 45.5% 7.6% 40.6% 22.6% 39.8% 25.9% 37.8% 33.0
5 Worst Offenses '09-'10 32.6% 48.1% 11.2% 43.1% 10.0% 38.1% 28.0% 38.2% 18.2% 33.5% 23.1
Pacers '09-'10 28.6% 58.8% 11.6% 46.2% 8.2% 39.1% 23.8% 38.7% 27.8% 34.8% 29.6
Pacers '10-'11 23.7% 58.6% 12.7% 51.6% 9.4% 39.1% 24.1% 47.5% 30.2% 36.5% 31.3

I found looking at the numbers for the 5 best and the 5 worst compared to the league average to be pretty interesting. The 5 best and 5 worst both take a percentage of their shots from 10ft. and in that was essentially identical to the league average. The 5 best offenses took a lower percentage of mid and long range jumpshots than the league average. The 5 worst offenses were the opposite, focusing more on mid and long range jumpshots and less on three pointers. The only places were the 5 best offenses made a significantly higher percentage of their shots was on three pointers and at the rim.

Looking at the Pacers' distribution thus far there are some positives and negatives. They are taking a very low percentage of their shots at the rim, even less than last season, when they were below average. The team is taking a slightly higher percentage of their shots in the 16-23ft. range, but are still below average compared to last season. The team is way above average in the percentage of their shots which come on three pointers, but thus far that hasn't been a problem as they have shot the ball very well. The team has also seen their FTR climb considerably.

I may be looking through blue and gold colored glasses but the Pacers' shot distribution thus far looks a lot more like an elite offense then the bottom 5 offense they were last season. In addition their percentages look much better from each area than last season. Looking for even more good news I re-created the same table, but broke the Pacers' numbers from this season down by the three games they have played so far.

  At Rim FGA% At Rim FG% <10ft. FGA% <10ft. FG% 10-15ft. FGA% 10-15ft. FG% 16-23ft. FGA% 16-23ft. FG% 3PT FGA% 3PT FG% FTR
League Average '09-'10 32.5% 61.0% 11.2% 44.1% 9.1% 39.8% 24.9% 39.6% 22.2% 35.5% 30.0
5 Best Offenses '09-'10 32.5% 63.4% 11.3% 45.5% 7.6% 40.6% 22.6% 39.8% 25.9% 37.8% 33.0
5 Worst Offenses '09-'10 32.6% 48.1% 11.2% 43.1% 10.0% 38.1% 28.0% 38.2% 18.2% 33.5% 23.1
Pacers '09-10' 28.6% 58.8% 11.6% 46.2% 8.2% 39.1% 23.8% 38.7% 27.8% 34.8% 29.6
10/27/10 vs. San Antonio 13.0% 60.0% 16.9% 61.6% 11.7% 44.5% 31.2% 62.5% 27.3% 38.1% 36.3
10/29/10 vs. Charlotte 21.2% 58.9% 11.3% 44.5% 13.8% 36.4% 17.5% 42.9% 36.3% 41.4% 30.0
10/30/10 vs. Philadelphia 34.8% 58.1% 10.1% 44.5% 3.3% 33.4% 23.6% 33.4% 27.0% 29.2% 28.1

The pattern is missed when looking at the three games combined, but since opening night the Pacers' have been progressively taking a higher percentage of their shots at the rim each night. Other than the spike against Charlotte, the percentage of their shots coming on three pointers has remained flat. That means the team has been getting more to the rim as opposed to relying on the mid and long range jumpshot. In fact, the team's shot distribution against Philadelphia looks very strong when compared to the shot distributions for the 5 best offenses. This is fantastic news, and if the trend continues, bodes really well for the team's offensive efficiency this season.

Now, maintaining this sort of distribution will take concentration and commitment. There are plenty of capable jumpshooters on our roster, and those always available long jumpers can be a trap easy to fall into. Staying consistent in getting Hibbert touches, crashing the offensive glass, pushing the ball in transition, and having Collison and Granger stay committed to attacking the basket seem like keys to keeping the shot percentage at the rim high and creating quality three point looks.

The Pacers have two more tough games this week. Philadelphia will be looking for revenge at home, and Milwaukee seems to have found their stride after Brandon Jennings' triple double this weekend. The Pacers' will need to stay consistent in their offensive attack, avoid contested jumpers, and maintain this focus on offensive efficiency. Two wins this week would be nice, but even a split would feel good if the team continues to compete the way it has thus far.

Rebound Percentage Update:

In the first installment of Stat of the Week we discussed Rebound Percentage and identified it as a season long focus, and bellwether statistic for the team. The team's percentages 3 games into the season look like this:

Offensive Rebound Percentage: 27.4%

Defensive Rebound Percentage: 70.7%

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Indy Cornrows

You must be a member of Indy Cornrows to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Indy Cornrows. You should read them.

Join Indy Cornrows

You must be a member of Indy Cornrows to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Indy Cornrows. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker