How to build the Pacers into a contender inside of 3 years

[From the FanPosts, Gary D lays out plenty of interesting takes to chew on. Well worth the read. - TL]

First of all I think the Pacers could be built into a legit contender within 3 years.  Some of you might disagree with this, but I think we have a lot of pieces to contend. They’re just not used in a way to maximize their talents.  Now the first step in any rebuilding is to see what you have to build with. What does this mean? Well giving the rookies more minutes as a start. We already know what Earl Watson offers. It’s time to see what AJ Price can do. AJ Price needs to go against the other teams #1 PG. From a philosophical point of view, I’m against tanking, to get better odds in the John Wall sweepstakes. Once you create a mentality that losing is ok, it takes a long time to get rid of that mentality, in my experience.  Saying that, there’s nothing wrong with going young, and giving our guys more minutes.  There’s several reasons for going young:

1 Increase our odds for the John Wall sweepstakes.

2 Build chemistry. If Tyler, Hibby, Rush, Price and DG33 are our future, as Larry says, then let them play together. There’s no point in Hibby or DG33 building chemistry with Murph since Murph is going to be traded(hopefully) soon.

3 Give our guys more experience. You can’t develop your game when you’re buried on the bench.

This doesn’t mean we don’t play the castaways (Murph, MDJ, etc.) We need to play those guys to inflate their stats and thus inflate their trade value. But we need to have two units: The future and the castaways.  Obviously injuries and stuff may limit this to an extent, but there is no need to make bone-headed decisions like playing Earl Watson for 40 minutes.

In my opinion, there’s nothing wrong with taking other people’s trash players. After all one man’s trash is another man’s gold. Jeff Saturday(Colts center) was cut by the Ravens before becoming the All-Pro center he is now. But some trash players work out, and others don’t. The important thing is to not sign them for more than a year. This way if they work out, we can sign them long term, if they stink, they’re not a serious handicap.

Another thing is don’t trade our bad contracts, for other team’s longer-term bad contracts. Let’s look at the JO TJ Ford deal.  Yeah, we got Hibby, but we could have just drafted him in the first place (since we never drafted Jerryd Bayless to actually play Jerryd Bayless). So what we’re left with is a TJ Ford that’s eating up 8.5 million a year, who has no trade value(I know we’re all hoping but let’s be honest with ourselves…if you were a GM would you take on TJ Ford and his contract?) Now compare that to JO, and his huge expiring contract. That has some decent trade value.  

Also I don’t believe you need a superstar (LeBron, Kobe, Melo, Durant, etc) to win a championship. Sure they help. But when the superstar-less Pistons went up against the superstar Lakers (Shaq, Kobe, Payton and Malone), the Pistons came out on top. Now, the Pistons weren’t scrubs, but it showed that if you have guys that can do their jobs properly, can avoid injuries, and are coached well, it is possible to win a championship without a superstar.

Ok, now let’s consider our current roster: Travis Diener, Mike Dunleavy , T.J. Ford, Jeff Foster, Danny Granger, Tyler Hansbrough, Luther Head, Roy Hibbert, Solomon Jones, Dahntay Jones, Josh McRoberts, Troy Murphy, A.J. Price, Brandon Rush, Earl Watson.

I’m sure all of you would agree that DG33 would be a starter on a legit contender right now. The same should hold true in 3 years. The other player that would be a starter on a legit contender is Hibby. Remember we’re not talking about now, we’re talking about in 3 years time. Hibby is developing nicely, and has stacked up pretty well against Tim Duncan in the Spurs game, and Dwight Howard in the previous Magic game, and those guys are two of the better centers in the league. If Hibby keeps developing, then in a few years time, he could be a starter on a legit contender. This leaves us to fill the starting PG, SG and PF positions .

Thanks to Larry’s conservative drafting we already have our bench in place. Our bench would consist of PG: AJ Price/Earl Watson, SG: Luther Head, SF: Dahntay Jones, PF: Hansbrough, and a back-up center.

Point Guard: So far AJ Price has shown he can be a capable back-up. Whether he can be a capable starter is not yet known. If AJ Price can be a starter then we can have AJ starting and Earl coming off the bench. Right now, I have my doubts if AJ can be a quality starter. Earl is a decent back-up. He can’t carry a team, but he doesn’t screw up much either. Well at least we doesn’t make plays that make you wanna tear out your hair like TJ Ford does. Neither TJ Ford nor Travis Deiner have any place on a legit contender. 

Shooting Guard: Brandon Rush is an enigma. Brandon Rush, defense aside, and despite his talent, has been flaky. At times, just doesn’t seem to want to be on the court. The Sixers game is a perfect example. The guy goes 6-of-11 for 14 points, in the first half, but then disappears totally in the second half! When you’re on a roll, you need to be aggressive, and demand the ball. Luther is an unknown quantity and needs more playing time in order to be assessed, but in the limited chances(significant  minutes) Luther has got, he has played surprisingly well (Memphis - 30 points, 7 boards; Minnesota - 21 points, 4 rebounds, 6 assists; Knicks[the game we got whooped  – 18 points – where he was by far the best player). Also Luther Head comes much cheaper than Brandon Rush (Luther is on the league minimum). MDJ has no place on a legit contender. He is paid way too much and is far too injury-prone.

Small Forward: Danny, despite recent shooting woes is the hands-down starter at the 3. DG33 is first and foremost a scorer, and I think we should just let him do that then pressure him with other stuff, like being a vocal leader. Dahntay Jones is the back-up here, because like it or not, we signed the guy for 4 years, and since no other team is knocking down the door for Dahntay, if we plan to contend in 3 years, Dahntay is going to have to be a part of that. Did we overpay for Dahntay? No doubt. Any team that stinks has to overpay for free agents, whether it’s the Oakland Raiders or our beloved Pacers. But Dahntay brings hustle, defense(which is sorely lacking), and attitude. In my opinion, he has all the qualities desired for a back-up.  Also given that DG33 is a scorer, while Dahntay can play D, we can alternate whose on the court, depending on whether we need to score or protect a lead at the end of a game – the point being Dahntay and Danny complement each other well.

Power forward: Tyler Hansbrough is what I thought he was going to be. A hard-nosed, hustle kind of player. He plays with everything he’s got; unfortunately he ain’t got all that much. Like Dahntay, Tyler is the prototypical bench player, and I think Tyler would be a capable back-up on a contender. Neither Murph(despite his sometimes impressive box score stats) or McBob(despite his dunks) have any place on a contender.

Center: Roy Hibbert is coming along nicely, and in a few years he should (hopefully) be one of the better centers in the league, and a starter on a legit contender. Hibby does have foul problems, but part of that has to do with Murph’s D, or lack or D, where Hibby comes to help out, but is too slow, and thus makes a clumsy challenge. Jeff Foster is a fan favourite, and a capable back-up, but in 3 years time he won’t be much use, so it’s best to trade him to a contender. Solo Jones is kind of a question mark, and needs more playing time to see if he’s the real deal or not. At the moment though, for the skills he brings to the court, I think he is over-priced and disposable.

So with our current roster, we can cover most of the entire bench of a championship contender, as well as the starting SF and C positions, leaving us to acquire a starting PG, SG, PF and a back-up center to become a true contender. Now how do we do so?

Scenario 1: Pacers win the John Wall sweepstakes. This is the quickest, easiest, way back to respectability. Mr. Wall becomes our starting PG right away. Trading Murph or Foster can hopefully land us another first rounder, and with this we take out starting PF of the future (Derrick Favors – GA Tech, Ed Davis – UNC, Patrick Patterson – Kentucky, Greg Monroe – Georgetown or DeMarcus Cousins - Kentucky). Our PF needs to be a guy with strong defense, strong rebounding, and who can score. If I had to name a PF that embodies what I think we should look for in our PF of the future it is Gerald Wallace of the Bobcats. This draft is pretty deep for PF’s, and I hope that Larry drafts our PF of the future, and doesn’t keep dreaming that Tyler will be a quality starter (because he won’t).  With our second rounder, we take our back-up center (hopefully Dexter Pittman of Texas).   We still have to fill our starting SG. With Rush signed for one more year, next year becomes his do-or-die year. If we swims, he sign him long-term, if he sinks (as I predict), we sign one Eric Gordon, who conveniently, is a free agent at the same time Rush’s contract expires. There are several reasons to consider signing Eric Gordon:

1 He’s a capable starting SG on a contender

2 He won’t cost the moon. Many of you bemoan in the comments section, how no free agent is going to come to Indy. EJ grew up in Indy, and would probably be a Pacers fan growing up idolising Reggie Miller (who doesn’t). It’s probably been a boyhood dream to play for the blue and gold, and to take over Reggie Miller’s mantle. We’re giving him that opportunity. Now I know the NBA is a business and I don’t expect a home-town discount from EJ, but if we make him feel wanted, and he sees the Pacers are taking steps to be a contender, I don’t think we would have to over-pay for EJ.

3 Being a local hoops hero, EJ has a large following, and would no doubt increase the number of people going through the turnstiles, as well as EJ jersey sales. Right now the Pacers need all the revenue help they can get. 

So Scenario 1 leaves us with:

Starters: John Wall, Eric Gordon, Danny Granger, Gerald Wallace-type PF, Roy Hibbert. Back-ups: AJ Price, Brandon Rush, Dahntay Jones, Tyler Hansbrough, Dexter Pittman. To me, that is a contending team. The rest of the roster should be project players on short-term deals to sustain our success in the future.

Scenario 2: Pacers don’t win the John Wall sweepstakes, but Hornets are haemorrhaging money and decide to trade CP3. With all due respect to DG33, if the Hornets offered a CP3 for DG33 trade, I’d take it in a heartbeat. I’ll throw in an expiring contract or whatever to make salaries match (I have to confess I’m not that educated when it comes to balancing salaries and all that). Now we got CP3 at the point, but no Granger at the 3. We would then use our high first-rounder to acquire Wesley Johnson from Syracuse, who would start at SF right away. Again we would use our second first rounder to acquire our PF of the future, and our second rounder to acquire our back-up center, while having Rush or EJ at the 2(as detailed above).

So Scenario 2 leaves us with:

 Starters: Chris Paul, Eric Gordon, Wesley Johnson, Gerald Wallace-type PF, Roy Hibbert. Back-ups: AJ Price, Brandon Rush, Dahntay Jones, Tyler Hansbrough, Dexter Pittman. To me, that is a contending team. The rest of the roster should be project players on short-term deals to sustain our success in the future.

Scenario 3: Pacers land consolation prize Xavier Henry. If the Pacers miss out on John Wall and land Xavier Henry, the SG out of Kansas, we can still be a contender. The can’t miss pick isn’t always can’t miss. Remember how ROY was supposed to be either Blake Griffin or Ricky Rubio instead of Tyreke Evans or Brandon Jennings? Remember how Greg Oden was supposed to dominate? If we draft Henry, then we put him at the 2 straight away.  We acquire our PF, and second round center in the draft, as explained previously. As for PG, will be difficult to acquire a PG in free agency without over-paying, so we need to look to the draft for a PG. We could take our chances with a guy like Sherron Collins of Kansas in this year’s draft, or wait till next year’s draft to draft a high pick PG like Kyrie Erving, Eric Bledsoe, or Brandon Knight, while providing AJ with another year to prove himself.

So Scenario 3 leaves us with:

Starters:  PG(drafted this year or the next), Xavier Henry, Danny Granger, Gerald Wallace-type PF, Roy Hibbert. Back-ups: AJ Price, Brandon Rush, Dahntay Jones, Tyler Hansbrough, Dexter Pittman. To me, that is a contending team. The rest of the roster should be project players on short-term deals to sustain our success in the future.

Scenario 4: Pacers win 30 games and land a late-lottery pick. A 30 win season and another late lottery pick means we miss out on Mr. Wall, Mr. Henry and Mr. Johnson, but can still land a quality PF with our highest first rounder. Our lower first round pick, and any second round picks needs to be used on a high-upside guys(not low-upside, choir-boy, college seniors).  We’ve already got our bench Mr. Bird, we need some quality starters now. Obviously Scenario 4, is going to delay the process of rebuilding, but if we can get a quality starter (or two), and hope for a high lottery pick in next year’s draft, we can still be a legit contender inside of 3 years.  The roster for Scenario 4 has too many gaps, so I’m not going to bother.

Scenario 5: Pacers draft Cole Aldrich, Luke Harangody or some European bust (seriously when was the last time drafting a European player actually worked out for the blue and gold?)

I got nothing. Probably fire Larry and blow it all up and start again (i.e. if the franchise isn’t moved to Seattle first).

Getting the players is one part of the deal, good coaching is the other. I’m willing to bet everything I have that Coach O’Brien will never win a Championship, or come close to it, even if remains an NBA coach on his deathbed. There is no doubt in my mind, that Obie, needs to be fired, the sooner the better.  So who should our new coach be? A current Pacers assistant? Reggie Miller? Mark Jackson? Bryon Scott? Avery Johnson?  A current Pacers assistant might be a possibility, I can’t say for sure. But you’d think that that if there was some young, savvy, smart assistant coach, Larry would have fired JOB and given the assistant his chance, right? But Larry’s an enigma himself. You never know what he’s going to do. Reggie Miller and Mark Jackson. Look I get that their former players, and they’ll have players respect, and if Reggie particularly, becomes the coach, people might come back to the Fieldhouse to see Reggie. But neither Reggie or Mark Jackson have had any reasonable coaching experience. Doing TV is nothing like coaching? TV guys don’t have to motivate players. TV guys don’t have to deal with locker-room problems. TV guys don’t have to watch hours of game tape, and come up with a solid game-plan for each game. And if Reggie or Mark stink, it would tarnish their legacy. Don’t believe me? Think of Matt Millen. Do you remember him as the crappy GM that killed the Detroit Lions for so many years, or the NFL player with 4 rings? I think this would be a bad move only just for Reggie or Mark, but the franchise too. That brings us to Bryon Scott and Avery Johnson. Both are good candidates, and a definite upgrade over JOB but I think I’d have to go with Avery Johnson ahead of Bryon Scott. Now I know that Avery was in charge on a talented Mavs team, but apart from the fact he was 2 games away from a ring, can you really argue with a career win percentage of .735? I think Avery Johnson is definitely the best unemployed coach out there. Bryon Scott in comparison has a career win percentage of .498(the same as JOB). In addition, before joining the Pacers JOB had only one losing season. Bryon Scott in comparison has had 4 losing seasons already.  Another guy I thought of is Kelvin Sampson, formerly the coach of IU, and now an assistant for the Bucks.  The guy has a career record of 496-271, as a head coach, which translates into a career win percentage of 0.646. Yeah, he has got into a bunch of recruiting trouble at the college level, but this is the NCAA can’t put the Pacers on probation. Or maybe we can tap the college ranks, but their isn’t much point in researching this, since it seems if Larry fires JOB(unfortunately that’s a big IF), he’ll probably hire another re-tread, instead of looking in places far and wide to get the very best guy for the job.