Watson starting PG?????????????

by Man of Pace on Jul 28, 2009 7:20 PM EDT Comment 21 comments

If the Pacer's official story is that Mr Watson has signed a multi-year deal, this bring several questions to mind.

Is he going to start? His game reminds me so much of Jarret Jack as does his situation. He has been the starter for teams and because they have a new young pg (Ridenour, Westbrook) he was always made to play second fiddle and last year he had to watch Westbrook commit 1000 turnovers and I'm sure that ruined the relationship in OKC.

Is he going to start?

Where is TJ going?

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I think T.J. will be with us as the starter next year, if he does get moved next year it will be to a title contender with an injured point guard (see Nelson in Orlando last year).

by dwwnd on Jul 28, 2009 10:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I've thought of this before

And it would explain the conflicting info we’re hearing about whether Watson’s contract is for one or two years. Maybe the Pacers already have a deal to trade Ford lined up, though something this clandestine doesn’t seem likely. I don’t think Watson is comparable to Jack or Ford talent-wise, but his passing and defense will help him fit in. And if administration views this season as a wash anyway, having just Diener and Price behind him becomes a little less scary.

In the end, if the Pacers are getting rid of Ford and starting Watson, they’d better flip Ford for an expiring contract or a decent, underrated young player or two. Otherwise this would make no sense. If you’re looking at a ceiling of 38-42 wins either way, why not just play the guy with the higher upside who’s already acclimated to the system (Ford)?

But I do like the idea of the team saving an additional $5 mil if they trade Ford for an expiring contract and keep Watson for two years (Ford’s $8 mil minus Watson’s $3 mil=$5 mil saved), especially if it means the Pacers will have a chance at a decent free agent. But again, doesn’t seem likely.

"You're hitting the wrong person. Don't you know you're hitting Ron Artest?"

by LukeNukem on Jul 28, 2009 11:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

matchups

I imagine who starts and/or gets more minutes is really going to depend on the matchups. Assuming both Ford and Watson are on the team this season, they have pretty clear differences. As we all know, one of our biggest deficiencies was stopping PG’s from driving and doing whatever they wanted to. Watson should be able to help that. I imagine that if we’re playing a team with a quick talented PG, Watson will start or get more minutes and if we play a team with a lesser PG, Ford will be in there more.

"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."

by psvirsky on Jul 29, 2009 7:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

watson should start

multiyear deal or not, i think there is a definite possibility of watson starting. think about which successful teams have scoring PGs? only the jazz and hornets, and they are far from competing against the elite teams. whatever it is about the current NBA, scoring point guards simply don’t run successful teams anymore. we need a point that will distribute, defend, and hit occasional open j’s, not dribble dribble dribble until they find somewhere to drive, only to get suffocated in the paint, a la TJ. we don’t need them to score 15 points a game- we need a point that will understand his role in the system and not try to take possessions over by himself. watson fits that mold, TJ doesn’t. whether there is enough talent around either point guard to be successful, that is a different story.

by BenD on Jul 29, 2009 2:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

?

Tony Parker?
Jameer Nelson?
Chauncey Billups?

"You're hitting the wrong person. Don't you know you're hitting Ron Artest?"

by LukeNukem on Jul 29, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

?

Parker, Nelson, and Billups are all pass-first point guards. Just because they CAN score, and sometimes do, doesn’t make them a “scoring PG.”

I actually think Billups is the perfect example of what we want a point guard to look like. Plays D, distributes well, makes his teammates better, has true veteran leadership ability, and can hit big shots when he needs to, but rarely tries to take over a game.

by indy62 on Jul 29, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't be silly

T.J. Ford averages 6.5 CAREER assists and 10.8 career shot attempts per game

Parker averages 5.7 and 13.5 (and has averaged more shot attempts than that in each of the last three seasons)

Nelson averages 4.5 and 10.2 (but in three of the last four he’s averaged more than 11 shot attempts)

Billups averages 5.6 and 11.0

So, you’re saying that three guys who shoot more than T.J. Ford and pass less are not “scoring PGs” but Ford is? Wow. I guess I don’t know what criteria to measure for this argument.

I’m not saying that shoot first point guards are the way to go, I just think we need to work on our ball defense. It doesn’t matter how much offense the PG provides if he can’t stop dribble penetration, which Ford very obviously cannot do.

That you’re argument that those three PG examples I gave are “pass first” while Ford is “score first” is absurd, I agree that we could use a PG like Billups. It’s just a shame they don’t come along every day.

"You're hitting the wrong person. Don't you know you're hitting Ron Artest?"

by LukeNukem on Jul 29, 2009 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

very good... +1

nice research Luke, good information to back your point. Well done.

~SHaFF!~
The Little Sports Blog That Could:
http://www.thelittlesportsblog.blogspot.com/

by SHaFF87 on Jul 30, 2009 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BenD

Very astute and correct.

T.J. Ford can be breathtaking one minute and make you pull your hair out the next!
That is why he rode the bench last year, because after 30 game JOB could not establish any flow mainly because of our TJ running and gunning with no re-guard for the system we were runnimg.

I see a Ford/Murphy or a Ford/Foster deal coming.

by Man of Pace on Jul 29, 2009 3:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

retourt ---

Rafer Alston -
Rondo –
Fisher -

by Man of Pace on Jul 29, 2009 3:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I would rate Billups as the best PG in the league!

I would take him over Nash Parker Paul etc you name anyone and I would take Billups….

I though you were saying that a score 1st PG = a winner …

by Man of Pace on Jul 29, 2009 4:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I definitely agree

no PG in the NBA is more solid than Billups

by pacers33 on Jul 29, 2009 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

give me...

Parker, Paul, Deron off the top of my head. I do like Billups though.

by captain flitzy on Jul 30, 2009 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

a lot of people like watson as the starter.

I’ve talked to quite a few other pacers fans and a lot of them seem to like Watson to be the starter, and they make some valid points.

1. Watson is more of a true point guard than Ford is.

2. Watson is better defensively than Ford.

3. We all saw how good TJ Ford is off the bench, he would reek havoc on most teams 2nd string point guard or their tired starter.

4. Watson makes more intelligent decisions than Ford.

All of these factors combine into a pretty solid case for Watson to be the starter… and I have to say, it might be a GREAT move…

~SHaFF!~
The Little Sports Blog That Could:
http://www.thelittlesportsblog.blogspot.com/

by SHaFF87 on Jul 30, 2009 12:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

A look at the Pacer's PGs by the numbers

You can use the full court tool at Basketball Reference to do this.

I think it’s pretty much a no brainer that Ford starts and plays most of the minutes, even though I’m not a big fan of him.

I don’t think there’s much difference in TJ and Earl when it comes to passing the ball. This is sort of a comparative advantage issue.
Suppose you put scoring and running the team on a 10 point scale.
TJ is a 7 as a scorer and a 6 as a passer.
Earl is a 3 as a scorer and a 6 as a passer.

Thus, Earl looks like more of a passer because his passing gets compared to his deficient scoring. But if you actually compare it to TJ’s passing, it’s about the same. Advantage TJ.

I also don’t see how Watson is a better decision maker than Ford. Watson actually turns the ball over more than Ford, which is the basic thing I think about when I think about a basketball player making good decisions.

BullsTwo

by Sports2 on Jul 30, 2009 9:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

If you take it up to per 48 minutes, which is good for comparing two players with big minute disparities, you get a pretty good argument for Ford.

Last year Watson averaged 12.2 pp48m, 10.7 ap48m and 4.3 TOp48m

Ford averaged 24.0 pp48m, 8.5 ap48m and 3.8 TOp48m

So, their assist:TO ratio per 48 is 2.5:1 for Watson and 2.2:1 for Ford. I’d take the 1/2 fewer TOs per 48 and give up the 2 assists per 48 in favor of Ford, especially if I’m doubling the points in the process. Ford’s also a better FG shooter and FT shooter (45% FG and 87% FT last year for Ford, 38% FG and 75% FT for Watson).

The biggest thing is Ford’s size disadvantage (he gives up 2 inches and about 20 pounds to Watson) and his severe lack of on-ball defensive ability, though from a statistical standpoint, he still has the per 48 advantage over Watson. Last year he averaged 1.92 steals per 48 and Watson averaged 1.29.

We all know Ford is a bad defender and we all hope Watson is a good one. But there just isn’t a statistical argument that Watson should start for this team based on talent. Maybe for chemistry and matchup purposes (who knows yet?), but by the numbers, it doesn’t look like he’s the better player. That is, unless, they trade Ford…

"You're hitting the wrong person. Don't you know you're hitting Ron Artest?"

by LukeNukem on Jul 30, 2009 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

absent a trade

I agree but think it will depend on matchups. More than anything, the best part of this is that now we have a clear PG to play when we need offense and a clear one to play when we need defense. It would be great to have one who was awesome at both, but few teams have that. At least now we can be more flexible depending on who we’re playing instead of just wincing every time we play a team with a good offensive PG

"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."

by psvirsky on Jul 30, 2009 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

there is no perfect option for the pacers at point

ideally, watson should not be your starting pg. if you notice scoring point guards like nelson, tony parker, chauncy, its all in the flow of the game. they aren’t dribbling non-stop on the top of the key. they take well calculated shots but always find the open man. TJ simply doesn’t do that. he wants his- first and foremost. he is so quick and athletic, it is a shame he isn’t more patient with the ball because he could be a terror. i just think watson brings a more team oriented style that will well help get the ball to our EFFICIENT scorers. i view TJ as a less efficient allen iverson, and that style just doesn’t work in the NBA anymore. you need 1 of 2 things it seems like ini todays NBA: 1: elite wing player (kobe, wade, lebron). 2. elite post player inside of an unselfish motion offense (howard in orlando, KG in boston, amare in pheonix, TD in san antonio). hopefully, danny can become that elite wing guy for us.

psvirsky- you’re probably right, there will be shuffling according to matchups. but what i don’t understand: why can’t tj stay in front of faster PGs?!?! he is the fastest one in the NBA not named tony parker or aaron brooks.

by BenD on Jul 31, 2009 10:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yeah i've never understood that

Don’t get to see as many games out here in Boston but I really haven’t figured out why he can’t be better at that. I understand getting backed down inside because he’s smaller but he shouldn’t be letting guys by him. Poor technique perhaps?

"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."

by psvirsky on Jul 31, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

strength

its all technique. he can get in front of them but is afraid of getting barreled over. they kind of just push him aside at the point of attack. if he just got in front, he could take a ton of charges.

by BenD on Jul 31, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

TJ's defense isn't that bad

…he is just limited by his size. He does a good job of staying in front of his man—he is one of, if not the fastest player in the league. He also does a good job of team defense. His short coming is his size, bigger players are able to back him down. It doesn’t happen much, but when his does, he has to be helped out.

By the way, TJ should be the starter all year, if he doesn’t it is just another mark against JOB. JOB has been unable to incorporate Ford’s talents into his system.

by joebobb on Aug 3, 2009 12:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs