DeJuan Blair - the Beast
[Note by Cornrows, 04/10/09 7:24 AM EDT From the FanPosts, psvirsky pumps up DeJuan Blair as a glass-eating post presence for the Pacers.]
Here comes one of my favorite guys so I'm just going to jump right in. Blair is the sort of player that you can describe very well with about 5 simple traits. 1 - He's one of the best offensive rebouners college has had in a long while (http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=580). 2 - He's only 6'7 but he's got a 7'3 wing span and weighs 265 lb (pure muscle). 3 - He plays with a mean streak and knows how to use his body down low. 4 - As impressive as he is, he's not necessarily uber-athletic. 5 - He's very competitive and one of the toughest players out there (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5R_k0Sw8nc throwing Hasheem Thabeet on to the ground).
I'll be honest though, he's got some serious flaws. He's projected at 22 for a reason. He plays PF but he's only 6'7 and not a huge jumper or anything. Offensively, he'll get most of his points off of put-backs or broken plays because he doesn't have a jumper yet. As for his post moves, he has some instinct but no go-to moves yet. He's a bad free throw shooter.
However, he is one of those players who just does certain things really really great. His offensive rebound and total rebounding numbers are off the charts. He's second in the country in rebounds per 40/minutes and did so in the Big East against some taller guys. He is a tough, competitive, make energy-plays kind of guy and a player who doesn't need plays run for him to get his points. His hands are unbelievable - he corrals everything near him. The dude is pure muscle. For what it's worth, he's about to turn 20 in a couple weeks.
Ultimately, I understand there are decent arguments against him, and unless things change, picking him up at 12 or so would be way too early. Maybe his stock will go up and we'll need that pick, but maybe we'd be better of trading back to get him. The thing about him is that of all the first rounders, he would fit on to this Pacers team better than anyone else. If he could be a starter that just brings toughness and rebounding, he could change the spirit of the team. I think Roy looks tougher next to him. His offensive rebounds would lead to more 2nd chance shots (he happens to be a decent passer out of the post too). I'll leave you with some quotes:
- DeJuan Blair’s statistical output this season has been nothing short of spectacular. He ranks #1 in PER with an astounding 38.9, which is due in large part to his efficiency offensively and the high value placed on offensive rebounding – an area where Blair excels at averaging 8.1 per-40 minutes, which is first in the nation by a wide margin, and also the most amongst all players in our database in the last eight years.
- Blair resembles more of a linebacker than a power forward, and because of his low center of gravity, standing at a modest 6’7, and his wide frame, weighing in 260 pounds, Blair is able to take up a lot of room in the painted area. In addition, his frame helps him and his teammates, seeing that he sets some of the best screens in the country. Furthermore, his freakishly long wingspan makes up for his lack of height and his incredibly soft hands enable him to wrestle boards away from the opposition.
- he has a tendency to go about his business quietly and refrain from putting his stamp on the game. The fact that he can potentially do more speaks volumes as to the player that he really is.
- he is extremely efficient, finishing 59% of his 2-point shots, which ranks him 11th in that category. He uses his body to his advantage inside and in the post, as he finds different ways to get his defender on his back – making it easier for him to finish. He certainly plays below the rim however and his lack of leaping ability has made him susceptible to blocked shots, although he has improved in utilizing crafty moves to get shots off. There is a distinct concern that at the NBA level he will struggle much more to score around the basket, though, considering his lack of size and explosiveness.
- Blair also does an excellent job at establishing deep position in the post. He’s also deceptively quick down there, often using the baseline and reversing on the other side of the rim to shield his defender – putting them in “jail”. He doesn’t have any type of face-up game at this point and lacks consistency with his shot
- His free throw percentage actually declined this year, going from 62.4% to 60.5%.
- One of his better qualities is his patience, as he doesn’t really force anything and does a good job at kicking the ball out to open shooters
- He lacks great lateral quickness to stay with anyone who drags him out and away from the basket. This is evident in isolations and pick and roll situations, where he’s forced to switch or hold a hedge for an extra second.
What does everyone think? My opinion is too biased at this point.
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20 comments
Comments
On Blair
Generally, size doesn’t mean a lot to me when talking about interior beast mode, but we are seeing Michael Beasley struggle a little bit to adjust to being a smaller player with an interior role. Moreover, in his three NBA games, D.J. White has pulled down 8 boards total. So I think there’s certainly an understanding and need to adjust in order for a shorter guy to make plays inside, but with Blair’s freakish wingspan, you can make up a lot of size.
My biggest issue with Blair is that his lack of an self provided offensive game, which kind of puts him in the Jeff Foster range for right now. He may be able to pull offensive rebounds and score on putbacks, but it would be great to get a player or see Blair develop a self sustaining offense, something the Pacers will need from him.
Given his current projection, should very little change, the biggest problem with taking Blair would be he may be too much of a reach at 12 or 13, when we might be able to get him later in the first round in addition to other things. Unless he develops one over the summer, I think he would spend most of his rookie year getting into the flow of the game that I don’t know how much of an immediate impact he can provide in his rookie year. It may do the team “better” to draft Ed Davis and develop him if Blair can’t enter training camp with his own shot.
But from a pure fit standpoint, I think he would work well for the Pacers. He’s the type of player they need, and certainly there’s very little bad you can make of Blair’s game overall.
by goodlucksaturday on Apr 9, 2009 11:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Size is generally an interesting issue because it does tend to affect some players way more than others. Beasley for one seems like a guy who in college was able to get by on his size and so he had trouble adjusting. Other plays like Paul Millsap however are able to still be productive without typical PF size. My gut feeling on Blair is while his height may hurt sometimes, he will be able to make up for it with his wingspan, overall girth, soft hands and knack for getting the ball. I forgot to mention it in the post, and it’s not totally accurate, but something about Blair makes me think of a taller Barkley with less athleticism. Mostly that comes from the mean streak he plays with.
As for his lack of refined offensive game, I think that doesn’t hurt him too much with this team. We have scorers. We have guys that can hit 3’s, guys that can drive, hell, we’re averaging 120 points in the last 6 games. To have a guy that can get his points without having to run plays for him I think is a big advantage on this team. Let’s say he’s on the court with Jack, Rush, Granger and Hibbert – I don’t see that lineup as needing another significant offensive presence. And he does have some game, he’s just not a big-time low post moves guy.
The biggest concern to me is him being a reach at 12 but we’ve got a couple months for things to change – people pulling out of the draft, last minute DUI’s (Lawson 08), and good/bad workouts. Who knows what’ll happen
"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."
by psvirsky on Apr 10, 2009 7:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ESPN the Mag
The latest issue of ESPN the Mag has an article about the possibility of the Thunder making the playoffs next season. One thing they spoke of was trading one of their draft picks to acquire a big, namely Jeff Foster. So, if we can trade Foster for the Spur’s first rounder (traded to OKC), we would have, via Draft Express, the 12th and 25th picks. With that, we could wait on Blair to hopefully fall to 25th and not have to reach at 12. That would be ideal, but then again, most of the stuff I dream of that are ideal situations never pans out (esp. if the Thunder are willing to take on Camby’s contract, which would a much better big for them).
by TheHawk5 on Apr 10, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that would be nice and it's not unreasonable
"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."
by psvirsky on Apr 10, 2009 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like the guy a lot and I’m not concerned about his height problems. If I remember correctly they said some of the same things about Elton Brand when he came out. They claimed he was a little too short for the four but he did have great hands and a huge wingspan. He turned out okay. But Blair does have a lot less going on offensively than Brand so that’s where the comparison ends.
Of course if we could get a pick later in the draft I’d love to go ahead and snatch Blair. He would be an asset. Although my opinion will change when we win the lottery and get to select Griffin with the first pick.
by ThirtyOne on Apr 10, 2009 8:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i keep forgetting that we're going to win the lottery
That really makes things much easier
"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."
by psvirsky on Apr 10, 2009 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haha
What they don’t tell you is that .2% is a lock, not just a percentage.
by goodlucksaturday on Apr 10, 2009 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i like him.
don’t know much about college basketball, but from what I have read or seen, I wouldn’t mind having him on the team. We lack a Paul Millsap/Jason Maxiell. As many people are talking about an allegedly “weak draft”, we could draft him at 12 or 13.
by bodi on Apr 10, 2009 10:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
looking around at the various mocks out there
he actually goes as high as 12 every once in a while. Again, these mocks are done by fans who aren’t talking to GM’s or anything. On the same note, I saw Cole Aldrich go as high as 4 twice.
http://walterfootball.com/nbadraftdata.php – this guy keeps track of a ton of mocks and updates the site as people put out new ones.
"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."
by psvirsky on Apr 10, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Blair is ideal for the Pacers.
I said it a week ago, we have to trade up for this draft in particular. Blair should be gone when we pick. Who is going to pass on this years Brand/Milsap mold of a player?
by Man of Pace on Apr 10, 2009 11:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i wouldn't be surprised to see his draft stock move up
but at least for now, no one seems to think he’ll be gone anywhere earlier than 12 and he tends to average around 18 or 19 in all the mocks. Again, we’ve got over 2 months for things to change but at least for now it doesn’t look like we’d have to trade up for him
"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."
by psvirsky on Apr 10, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In that case ...
Blair is as close to a perfect fit as they can find for there current needs.
If trading up is not a good option, maybe we could do a deal to get another 1st rounder this year.
Does anyone know how many second round picks we have this year and next,
I remember us doing a deal that netted us 2 second round picks recently … or am I going draft crazy?
by Man of Pace on Apr 10, 2009 12:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
this year I believe we lost a 2nd rounder a while back and picked one up more recently. Here, this is from DraftExpress
Pacers
Credits:
• Indiana will receive Dallas’ 2009 second-round pick (Shawne Williams trade)
• Dallas must convey either their own 2010 or 2011 second-round pick to Indiana (Shawne Williams trade). Decision must be made by June 1, 2010
Debits:
• Miami will receive Indiana’s 2009 second round pick. Stanko Barac (#39 pick, 2007) rights trade.
"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."
by psvirsky on Apr 10, 2009 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
.
I like Blair. Almost as much as I like Jeff Foster. That being said if you take jeff foster and shrink him 3" add 10-20 lbs and stretch his arms… well you’ve got the same player.
I think that we need more of a scorer in the post than him. But in all honesty outside of Griffin IDK of anyone that can score down low like we need. So he might be a good choice. He is a little more intidimating than JF. His height I dont see as a problem (see Ben Wallace circa 2002) but his athleticism at his height I do see as a problem. He does use his body as well as I’ve seen but at the next level I’m afraid it wont be enough.
in the middle of round one though, he may fill a role.
by shep31 on Apr 13, 2009 8:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't know about needing offense from the 4
I mean, we don’t want a completely one-dimensional player, but scoring points is not something we have a problem doing.
As for the athleticism, it’s really impossible to tell how much of a hindrance it will be. It’s definitely a concern.
"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."
by psvirsky on Apr 13, 2009 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
.
Well if we dont need scoring from the 4 is it defense that we’re missing there? Because JF is a good face up defender, I’ve seen him get pushed around by bigger stronger guys, something Blair wont have a problem defeating.
What is it that we need?
We score alot, sure. But we dont defend. Sometimes it may help to be able to slow it down and bang inside. Larry Bird has said it IDK how many times that we need a low post scoring presence. If nothing else a guy like that could help dictate the pace and swing things back in our favor.
Rush looks like he’ll be a very good defender and hopefully he’ll develope a somewhat consistent ofensive game.
We have jeff foster who is a good defender against 90% of the big men in the league but he doesn’t play big minutes because on the offensive end he’s… awkward most of the time. He’s looked better this year than in years past fitting into the offense and just being involved in general but its a small improvement at best, and one that still doesn’t warrant big minutes. Foster is a Reb. machine too.
So if we’re looking for D what do we do? We rotate Foster, Hibbert and Blair at the 4 and 5 accordingly and hope and pray that the 1-3 positions dont have off nights shooting?
I think what we’re looking past is the fact that Troy Murphy 14 pts and almost 12 rebs a game, but he cant defend. He can shoot, he cant play in the post. So if we cut his minutes and play a better defender at the 4 we still have to replace his around 10 a game. I’m not sure blair is a 10 and 10 guy. That being said in the middle of the 1st he might be our best option for our needs. He can bang down low, he’s young, he can board, not the best on offense but if split well with Murph we might be better off. Thats just a tough line to toe.
Again this is just how I see it. I could be completly wrong but I’m just not that high on Blair, at least not to the point that I would be excited over us getting him. I wouldn’t hate it all the same.
by shep31 on Apr 13, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For the most part I agree
I do think however that Blair is an upgrade from Foster on the offensive end, at least in part because I haven’t seen him miss many bunnies (a Foster specialty). Another perhaps underrated characteristic that is that Blair is just so broad that his screens are immediately more effective than Foster’s. I’ve always been a big Foster fan and I think he’s very effective in certain situations, just not so much our situation of the last couple years.
I’m hoping that Hibbert can continue to develop his post game because he really has the potential to put in 15 points a game inside. That sort of production from him would make Blair a much better choice. Without that from Hibbert, Blair doesn’t quite fit as well.
Otherwise though I mostly agree. Blair is far from being a can’t miss guy for us, he just fits a need. Oh and the one thing I forgot to mention is that I think Blair would bring some serious toughness to the team. Foster is a tough guy but he doesn’t seem to have the type of personality that makes the toughness rub off on everyone else. Blair does.
"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."
by psvirsky on Apr 13, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
foster...
has looked stiff as a board all season in my opinion. Love the hustle, but get rid of him, he’s bordering on useless in my opinion.
by captain flitzy on Apr 13, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I get the feeling that Foster is often hampered by his back. His style of play can be severely limited by a back injury because he depends on hustle so much
"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."
by psvirsky on Apr 13, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If only Bird didn't have such Manlove for Jeff Foster?
If Bird would have shipped Foster out for Denver’s 1st rounder like he should have. We could pick Blair to be the inside rebounding/defending force we so desperately need.
Think Danny Fortson, only with brains.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
by aaronb on Apr 14, 2009 10:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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