Patty Mills - the Australian Sensation

by psvirsky on Apr 21, 2009 6:47 PM EDT

[Note by Cornrows, 04/21/09 6:45 PM EDT - From the FanPosts, psvirsky puts point guard prospect, Patty Mills up consideration.]

We've had a few people mention Patty Mills in the comments so it seems like a good time to talk about him. First of all, he is currently projected at the beginning of the second round. That means we would have to trade either up or down and our current picks aren't likely to net him. Nonetheless, he is an intriguing prospect at PG. He is 6'0, 175 lb - just a bit small but not bad at all.

The interesting thing about him is that people got pretty excited about him before the season based on how he played with the Australian national team, but he was injured for a majority of this past season so his stock didn't really move much. His biggest attribute is definitely his speed. The guy is just really quick and can turn the corner on anyone. His quickness is also helpful on defense in that he gets a ton of steals. He's a great free throw shooter and a decent 3-point shooter ("textbook jump shot"). As far as PG skills go, he's got a decent handle although he's not the most amazing passer.

It seems that his biggest weakness is sort of an overall inefficency thing. He can get to the hole well but is only an okay finisher. While he's a decent shooter, he takes way more than 3's than he should. In a way, he still plays more like a combo guard and because of his size he needs to be able play the 1. He's not a floor general yet although there's potential there. He also couldn't play defense at the 2 so it's important that he really become a solid 1.

Ultimately, the impression I get is that the guy definiitely has the potential to become the next Tony Parker. The quickness and shooting are very similar. His weaknesses are more about growing up and becoming a true point guard. He has to make better decisions overall and especially near the basket. It does seem like all his flaws are fixable though and aren't major. My guess is that people are more worried about him because he just didn't improve as much as expected this year. Maybe he's maxed out his potential (in which case he wouldn't be worth drafting) but maybe he's on his way to becoming the next Parker.

Plus, I assume he has a cool accent, so we have to take that into account as well.

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Going to Gonzaga and having watched him many times, I feel like I really know Patty, so I must object...

“My guess is that people are more worried about him because he just didn’t improve as much as expected this year.”

This is just not true. Patty was far better this year, if it wasn’t for his injury St. Mary’s would’ve stayed in the spotlight (in a good way), made the tourney, and his stock would’ve been in the lottery-range.

“He’s not a floor general yet although there’s potential there.”

Not true. The dependence St. Mary’s had shows how much of a floor general he was. When he was on they were one of the 20 or so best teams in the county. When he got hurt they lost to Portland and Santa Clara. His energy and enthusiasm surpasses most any PG in the draft.

“He can get to the hole well but is only an okay finisher.”

Really? Have you ever watched him play? He’s the best finisher I’ve around the hole that I’ve ever seen who can’t dunk. He get the most ridiculous shots to fall while drawing fouls on a very consistent basis.

I’ve watched him for 2 solid years in the WCC. He’s the fastest player I’ve ever seen on a basketball court, and I’ve been to NBA games. It’s moronic that he’s not a Top 10 pick. If the Pacers got him at 13 I’d be overjoyed.

by SethGrandpa on Apr 21, 2009 11:17 PM EDT reply actions

and that's why we have these profiles

I watch my fair share of college basketball but by no means do I know every player well. I’ve seen Mills play maybe 3-4 times so I did depend quite a bit on stats and other people’s opinions.

So in general I defer to your opinions as you’ve clearly seen him a lot more than I. On top of that, I agree that his lowered draft stock must be primarily do to the injury. However, as much as he may have improved on the eye-test, his stats are very similar to his first year. His main improvement is an extra 4 points a game (while shooting more with worse percentages) and a much improved free throw percentage.

As for the floor general/okay finisher comments, I can imagine that these are things he does well in general and there’s no argument that his team was better with him. However, for a PG, his assist to turnover ratio is really not good. This year he averaged 3.9 assists to 2.9 turnovers. Granted, his team isn’t filled with stars but those are still weak numbers. His shooting percentage is also awfully low at .402. So as often as he is making amazing finishes at the basket, he seems to be missing a decent amount too. And as good of a 3-point shooter as he is, he takes way too many of them.

I will concede though that all of this last paragraph is in some way related to being the best player on a team. How much of it, I don’t know. He’ll have more open shots and more assists with Granger, etc. on the court. I still get the feeling that he is just as likely to reach his very high ceiling as the PG’s being drafted in the lottery (who have similar ceilings).

Again though, thanks for the extended comment because you have clearly seen a lot more of him than I. When you’re an IU alum during their worst year, you just don’t watch as much college ball as normal.

"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."

by psvirsky on Apr 22, 2009 7:41 AM EDT up reply actions

I wasn't trying to attack or anything just add more details.

It’s true he isn’t always the most efficient player. But as others point out, it’s in part because he’s carrying the load. Put him with Granger and Rush and all of a sudden he’s getting far more assists and more open shots.

by SethGrandpa on Apr 22, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions

i can definitely see that happening

"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."

by psvirsky on Apr 22, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks for filling in some details

Interestingly, I seeked out a couple of his games this year based solely on recommendations from people I trust who also have Gonzaga ties. I love this guy’s game, period. I also think the main negatives concerning him shooting too much or not scoring efficiently are not a concern. That won’t be a problem at the NBA level when he’s playing within a system and has other scorers around him. He was carrying the load for St. Marys.

Indy Cornrows

by Tom Lewis on Apr 22, 2009 7:51 AM EDT up reply actions

I know nothing of this Paddy you speak of ...

sounds like Paddy is going to be a player though … .

Who’s up next to be examined and discussed? Craig Brakens looks like he is on the Pacers radar.

by Man of Pace on Apr 22, 2009 9:53 AM EDT reply actions

good idea

despite Bird’s comment that they are unlikely to find the big guy they want in the draft, Brackens tends to be mock drafted right around the Pacers, so he’s worth a look.

"If you don't [draft me], I promise you I'll come back and kick your ass for the next 15 years."

by psvirsky on Apr 22, 2009 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Brackens had a huge year last year ....

The more I read about him it looks like the draft prognosticators might have a something with Brackens coming to Indiana. He surely would help the low post rotation and give another close t the basket scorer.

by Man of Pace on Apr 22, 2009 12:34 PM EDT reply actions