Can Numbers Turn Around The Pacers? Say Hello To Kevin Pelton
Numbers alone won't turn things around for the Indiana Pacers, but they can play a huge role when properly applied. That's why I'm so excited that the Pacers are working with Kevin Pelton, well regarded APBRmetrician and writer from Basketball Prospectus, to sharpen their decision-making process by utilizing Pelton's analysis.
In fact, this move by the Pacers equates to landing a productive top pick in this year's draft. Consider it a deft free agent signing, especially for a team that has no cap room to sign any free agent players this summer. So I thought it might be nice to learn a little bit about Kevin Pelton and he was kind enough to answer some general questions about his background and thoughts on the rise of advanced stats in the NBA.
Indy Cornrows: How did you get into this field of work? Can I assume you are passionate about both basketball and numbers? If so, can you believe how the field of advanced stats has progressed from the perspective of the NBA organizations, where in the not too distant past it was likely viewed as a nice little hobby to now, where we're at a point that this type of analysis is the life blood of some very successful organizations?
Kevin Pelton:Yes, it's definitely safe to assume I'm passionate about both of those topics. As a kid, numbers in sports always interested me, and I recall calculating stats for the Sonics in Microsoft Works back when I had to type everything in from the paper. By the time I got into college, I started reading first Rob Neyer and then Baseball Prospectus, who opened up a whole new world to me in terms of understanding how statistics could be more useful in baseball. Looking for similar basketball analysis was a natural next step, and eventually I discovered Dean Oliver's pioneering work, as well as what John Hollinger was doing long before he was a fixture on ESPN.com. I started writing about basketball using their building blocks, and was lucky enough to catch on with Basketball Prospectus when the site started prior to the 2007-08 season.
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IC Cold Links: Young Guns Prove Their Worth Against Mighty Cavs
There was something that happened during last night's 99-94 loss to Cleveland that was very exciting -- the rise (and fall) of the young guns.
Three players who could possibly be a big part of the future of the Indiana Pacers came alive during the fourth quarter to push the Cavaliers to the limit, ultimately unleashing LeBron James in all his glory before succumbing to defeat. The play of Brandon Rush, A.J. Price and Roy Hibbert during a stretch that erased an 18-point deficit to climb back within one point of tying the game with four minutes remaining was what we've all been waiting for of late. The youngin's were finally unleashed.
Of course, if you tuned into SportsCenter this morning, you just got the sense that Rush was made a fool last night. As the lead story this morning, the "James vs. Rush" matchup played Rush as the court jester compared to James' knight in shining armor. But before King James reigned down Hell upon the Pacers in the final three minutes, Rush and company put together a fantastic run. The three combined for 17 points in a 22-5 run that cut the Cavs' lead to 88-87, and they finished with 23 of the team's 29 fourth-quarter points.
Coach Jim O'Brien was impressed: "They knew we were calling their number a lot. And, they have confidence in their ability to score and the more their confidence builds, the better NBA players they will be. It's good to have young guys that are constantly improving."
A couple of factors helped the kids along. Despite getting in foul trouble early, Hibbert came back to do a lot of damage against a Shaquille O'Neal-less Cavs squad. He also scored 10 of his team-high 20 points in the first quarter. Rush and Price did a lot of their damage when Cleveland had mailed in the fourth quarter, hoping to coast to a Central Division title. Still, the heart was there to comeback and they came very, very close to putting the Pacers on an actual winning streak. Rush said it best: "We're going to be playing together for the next couple of years, and it's definitely a good sign that we played pretty well against a great team. A.J. (Price) played good and Roy (Hibbert) played good, so it's definitely a good look for us in the future."
Check out the jump for links to last night's loss.
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Cavs 99, Pacers 94: LeBron Holds Off Pesky Pacers In Final Minutes
What is Indiana Pacers coach Jim O'Brien thinking?
The man has trouble winning, and he has trouble losing. With the Pacers on threshold of NBA lottery heaven, O'Brien's squad shut down the streaking Bobcats on Tuesday for a rare win, and then nearly followed the gutsy performance with an encore presentation in Cleveland on Wednesday. It took an MVP performance in the final three minutes from LeBron James to keep the Pacers from shooting themselves in the foot again.
After the Pacers clawed back from an 18-point deficit to start the fourth quarter, the blue and gold's youth movement came to fruition against one of the best teams in the league. Behind stellar play from rookie A.J. Price, Brandon Rush and Roy Hibbert, Indiana (which was playing without injured star Danny Granger) pulled within one point of tying the game with 4:37 left in the fourth stanza. It was mind-twisting, tug-of-war for a Pacers fan. Do you want LeBron and Co. to destroy the Pacers in order to put them back in their rightful spot in the top four of the lottery, or wouldn't it be sweet to see the young core players knock off the mighty Cavaliers? The question didn't linger for long.
James had six points, two blocks, two steals and an assist in the final four minutes to seal the deal for a Cavs' 99-94 win, which clinched the Cavs the Central Division title.
One of LeBron's thundering blocks came on poor Brandon Rush. The second-year guard was given the assignment of dealing with LeBron during the fourth quarter. Rush performed admirably, but when LeBron turned it on in the final four minutes, Rush was burnt to a crisp. The block on Rush came right when the Pacers were within one of taking the lead and the play the Pacers ran came directly out of a timeout. Rush tried taking it to the hole but LeBron jumped from what seemed like the opposite 3-point line to smash the ball off the glass. The resulting turnover led to an Anderson Varejao bucket, followed by another Pacers turnover that then blessed James with an alley-oop dunk. The ship was sunk.
Overall, the Pacers were in this game for three of the four quarters, and they even looked good doing it. A fun-filled 11-0 run in the second quarter gave the Pacers an early lead and some confidence. But it was that characteristic third-quarter blemish that did the team in again. Starting at the end of the second, LeBron and co. rattled off a 20-2 run that ultimately led to a 31-17 third-quarter advantage. It set the stage for the miraculous comeback by the Pacers' young guys, but the Cavs showed their true colors during that run.
In the end, Pacers fans got the best of both worlds in this one. The team fought hard, led by three promising young guys at the forefront. And, ultimately, the loss helped them creep closer back to one of those top lottery spots. Check out more thoughts and observations after the jump.
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Game Thread #68: Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers
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| 21-43 | 53-15 | |
| March 17, 2010 - 7:00PM EST | ||
| Quicken Loans Arena | ||
| Radio: 1070 The Fan TV: Fox Sports Indiana | ||
| Probable starters: | ||
| Earl Watson | PG | Mo Williams |
| Brandon Rush | SG | Anthony Johnson |
| Dahntay Jones | SF | LeBron James |
| Troy Murphy | PF | Antawn Jamison |
| Roy Hibbert | C | J.J. Hickson |
The Indiana Pacers take on the Cleveland Cavaliers in Quicken Loans Arena tonight. Danny Granger is expected to miss the game after a shot to the head near the end of last night's game sent him to the hospital.
Without Granger to counter LeBron James at the offensive end, I'm guessing Jim O'Brien starts Dahntay Jones to at least provide a little defense. Mike Dunleavy is coming off one of his better games, but combining Dunleavy and Murphy to start would really maximize the matchup problems. Of course, there's trouble lurking regardless of who JOB trots out there.
For a Cleveland perspective, check out Fear The Sword.
Leave your thoughts and observations in the comments. Also, pop open an extra browser and check out Bruno's Live Blog.
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Granger Checks Out OK After Examination At Hospital
It appears the injury Danny Granger suffered during Tuesday's win against Charlotte isn't as bad as it looked.
The Indiana Pacers announced this morning that Granger was immediately taken to the Methodist Hospital last night for examination. He had a CT scan of his head and neck and the results were negative. He was released following the examination. The Pacers also noted that he will seek further examination from team physicians. He is still set to miss tonight's game in Cleveland.
After suffering a blow to his upper right cheek late in the fourth quarter, Granger was barely able to make it off the court with help of teammates and coaches. The Indiana Pacers star looked dazed and confused after falling to the floor next to the bench while waiting for assistance to the locker room. No word yet on when he might return to the Pacers lineup.
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Granger To Miss Tonight's Game Against Rolling Cavs
The scoreboard seemingly said the Indiana Pacers should celebrate a surprising, uplifting 99-94 win over the playoff-bound Charlotte Bobcats on Tuesday. But it's hard to celebrate the win when two big losses came from the event.
Not only did the victory cost the Pacers another spot in the John Wall Sweepstakes (moving them to the No. 5 spot in the worst-record race, going a 1/2 game behind the Wizards), but it also cost them their star Danny Granger in the final minute with an injury, which remains unknown in its severity. The Granger injury, which he suffered when taking an inadvertent elbow to the cheek with less than a minute remaining in the game, will be evaluated today. When Granger suffered the injury, it looked as though he had been shot. After keeling over while attempting to make his way back to the bench, Granger finally toppled over near teammates while looking woozy and distraught. He was barely able to make it back to the locker room while being held up by teammates and coaches. Poor Dick Harter looked helpless while trying to lumber Granger's limp body to the back.
Granger's injury could have major repercussions on the Pacers' lottery chances. He will miss tonight's game on the road in Cleveland, according to coach Jim O'Brien. Dahntay Jones recalled the injury to the Indianapolis Star's Mike Wells: "Everything was moving so fast that I didn't see what happened with Danny. Nobody really knows (what happened). I guess he went for the rebound and I guess he got hit somewhere."
Granger led the charge during last night's win, leading the team with 26 points (on a lousy 9-of-25 shooting performance), but he also had a team-high five turnovers. Without Granger, the Pacers could crumble (most likely) or somehow, someway find the missing energy and determination to pull out a few gutsy wins without their star.
Check out the jump for links that cover last night's win.
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Pacers 99, Bobcats 94: Granger Staggered, But Pacers Hang On To Beat Charlotte
After putting together one of their more complete games for much of the game, the Indiana Pacers literally staggered to the finish before finally closing out the Charlotte Bobcats for a 99-94 win.
Rookie A.J. Price sealed the deal with seven seconds remaining, making two free throws and snuffing out the Bobcats once and for all. Credit to Charlotte for playing this one for all 48 minutes. The visitors had plenty of opportunities to pack it in during the fourth quarter when the Pacers were able to push back a couple of runs by Charlotte to maintain a double-digit lead.
The Pacers couldn't push back the final run, though and simply had to hang onto the W for dear life. With three minutes left in the game, the Pacers were up by 12. Charlotte then went on a 9-0 run as the Pacers pitched in with their own mistakes.
Nothing was going right.
Dahntay Jones nearly had the NBA's highlight of the night when he attempted to jump over a pile of players for a follow dunk. He couldn't quite reach it and in the ensuing scrum for the ball under the rim, Jones inadvertently jacked Danny Granger with an elbow which eventually led to Granger staggering back to the locker room with assistance.
Somehow, the Pacers averted the ultimate implosion, though. Between bad fouls, bad shots and a key turnover by Earl Watson, the Bobcats were primed to swipe the win. However, Stephen Jackson missed an open 3-ball and then Boris Diaw literally threw a pass to Troy Murphy to keep the Bobcats from ever catching the Pacers.
After the jump, more thoughts on the win.
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Game Thread #67: Charlotte Bobcats at Indiana Pacers
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| 34-31 | 21-45 | |
| March 16, 2010 - 7:00PM EST | ||
| Conseco Fieldhouse | ||
| Radio: 1070AM WFNI TV: Fox Sports Indiana | ||
| Probable starters: | ||
| Raymond Felton | PG | Earl Watson |
| Stephen Graham | SG | Brandon Rush |
| Stephen Jackson | SF | Danny Granger |
| Boris Diaw | PF | Troy Murphy |
| Theo Ratliff | C | Roy Hibbert |
Break up the Bobcats.
Larry Brownhas Charlotte humming along at the right time of the year as the Bobcats arrive at the Fieldhouse tonight looking to win their seventh straight game. A couple of trade deadline tweaks have worked out well, with Theo Ratliff and one of my personal favorites, Stephen Graham, landing in the starting lineup.
The Indiana Pacerson the other hand have won just one of their past seven games and at this point are just hoping to get through warmups without an injury. Mike Dunleavyis expected to be back tonight after missing a game due to a warmup mishap. T.J. Ford remains out with a groin strain which should open up minutes again for A.J. Price at point guard off the bench. Ford played a big role in the Pacers win over Charlotte back in December, but that seems like a year or two ago at this point as both teams have gone their separate ways since that game.
For a Charlotte perspective, check out Rufus On Fire.
Leave your thoughts and observations in the comments. Also, pop open an extra browser and check out Bruno's Live Blog.
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